Reading the news daily can often be as funny as the comics section. Today was no exception when I came across the following article in Der Speigel’s English edition:
Serbia Says Use of Force Is an Option in KosovoKosovo’s Albanian-dominated government seems set to declare its independence from Serbia. Some Western governments appear to back this move, but now Serbia is weighing its options—and military options—in such an event. Serbia is prepared to use force to prevent Kosovo gaining independence. Serbia is ready to use force to prevent Western states from recognizing Kosovo as an independent state, a senior Serbian official warned on Wednesday.
Dusan Prorokovic, Serbia’s state secretary for Kosovo, outlined an array of tough measures to squeeze Kosovo that he said Serbia was ready to take in the event that Kosovo’s Albanian-dominated government declared independence and was recognized by Western governments. These included the possible deployment of Serbian forces to the province, the sealing of its borders, and a trade embargo.
Any military action against Kosovo would naturally involve both Kosovar and foreign forces there including the French, Germans, Italians and Americans. So setting aside the absurdity of a poor and already badly beaten Serbia starting a war it has no chance of winning, what in the world are politicians thinking?
Serbia must on one hand, continue to act tough not only to save face but to appease its population and maintain support for the government. On the other hand, although Serbia has a less than 0% chance of winning, the threat of force may be enough to make some European states back down or rethink their options. The last thing most EU states want is another mess in Balkans and a violent one at that and could be willing to compromise as both governments and their citizens have little stomach for foreign deployments and war given the ongoing hostilities in Iraq.
As absurd and hollow as the threat seems, counting on European cowardice isn’t necessarily a bad bet.
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COMMENTS / 9 COMMENTS
Rommel added these pithy words on 06 Sep 07 at 1:01 pmFor all the talk of how current American foreign policy has undermined Western power throughout the world, well.. what about European cowardice? Serbia and Iran are all too aware of Europe’s eagerness to cut a deal.
Rommel added these pithy words on 06 Sep 07 at 1:02 pmI should say – perceived cowardice.
Adrian added these pithy words on 06 Sep 07 at 1:50 pmBack in 1999, Europe seemed more eager than the US to send ground troops to Kosovo. I think the Balkans are probably the one area of the world where Europeans would be willing to flex its muscles. The Balkans combine weak, easily beaten powers like Serbia, with relatively high consequences of doing nothing (massive immigration, possible ethnic cleansing on TV).
random african added these pithy words on 06 Sep 07 at 4:18 pmtheir citizens have little stomach for foreign deployments and war given the ongoing hostilities in Iraq
I really don’t think that’s the case. Kosovo has been properly marketed as a case of good guys and bad guys in 1999. And like Adrian said, it’s too close to Europe to look the other way (for european citizens).
Brutus Cato added these pithy words on 06 Sep 07 at 9:24 pmI think the issue here is not so much whether NATO can police the area and enforce Kosovar independence, but with the renewed concern over Islam in the post 9/11 world are as many nations eager to intervene on behalf of a separatist Muslim movement? Talk about setting bad precedent, France and Germany would be hard pressed to not conceed great autonomy to their own muslim populations, if it were demanded. Moreover, one cannot discount how much U.S. air power supplemented the NATO actions and that in the current environment, most Americans are apathetic, if not opposed, to any more interventions. Lastly, I fear Serbia is betting on Russian involvement whether open or clandestine in any effort to stop the Kosovar Secession.
Michael added these pithy words on 06 Sep 07 at 9:25 pmNot to mention that the US Leviathan would be involved, at least in the initial smashing of the Serbian army.
I wonder, though, if what they’re counting on isn’t European cowardice so much as Russian help? The Serbians can’t beat NATO, but the Russians can threaten the oil and gas supply of much of NATO.
Mark added these pithy words on 07 Sep 07 at 1:54 amThe US bombed Christian civilians to support Muslim (allied with AQ) seizure and ethnic cleansing of historically Christian areas. Perhaps its better to be a European coward than an American psychopath?
Brent added these pithy words on 08 Sep 07 at 2:53 pmI discussed this post with several Serbian friends of mine and, not surprisingly, they support the Russian side of this issue. They told me that they would suspect that parts of the Serb minority would conduct some form of terror campaign in the province similar to the IRA program against the UK if there was a declaration of independence by the Kosovar government. I, however, was more surprised at some of their opinions, given that they are essentially Westernized (Canadianized).
They had an almost militant hatred for the Muslims of the region to the extent that one of said that if they won $100 million, they would use it to finance paramilitary actions. It makes me wonder how these people can coexist in the future.
Jimm added these pithy words on 10 Sep 07 at 6:39 amI don’t think they’re counting on European or any other cowardice.
I think they’re in a state of denial. Kosovo is a de facto nation. Serbia will have to just let go.
