Counting on European Cowardice

Reading the news daily can often be as funny as the comics section. Today was no exception when I came across the following article in Der Speigel’s English edition:

Serbia Says Use of Force Is an Option in Kosovo

Kosovo’s Albanian-dominated government seems set to declare its independence from Serbia. Some Western governments appear to back this move, but now Serbia is weighing its options—and military options—in such an event. Serbia is prepared to use force to prevent Kosovo gaining independence. Serbia is ready to use force to prevent Western states from recognizing Kosovo as an independent state, a senior Serbian official warned on Wednesday.

Dusan Prorokovic, Serbia’s state secretary for Kosovo, outlined an array of tough measures to squeeze Kosovo that he said Serbia was ready to take in the event that Kosovo’s Albanian-dominated government declared independence and was recognized by Western governments. These included the possible deployment of Serbian forces to the province, the sealing of its borders, and a trade embargo.

Any military action against Kosovo would naturally involve both Kosovar and foreign forces there including the French, Germans, Italians and Americans. So setting aside the absurdity of a poor and already badly beaten Serbia starting a war it has no chance of winning, what in the world are politicians thinking?

Serbia must on one hand, continue to act tough not only to save face but to appease its population and maintain support for the government. On the other hand, although Serbia has a less than 0% chance of winning, the threat of force may be enough to make some European states back down or rethink their options. The last thing most EU states want is another mess in Balkans and a violent one at that and could be willing to compromise as both governments and their citizens have little stomach for foreign deployments and war given the ongoing hostilities in Iraq.

As absurd and hollow as the threat seems, counting on European cowardice isn’t necessarily a bad bet.