Comments on: The Future of Syria and Jordan http://cominganarchy.com/2007/09/03/the-future-of-syria-and-jordan/ Speak Victorian, Think Pagan Fri, 09 Jan 2009 14:01:28 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.7 hourly 1 By: Michael http://cominganarchy.com/2007/09/03/the-future-of-syria-and-jordan/comment-page-1/#comment-378104 Michael Wed, 05 Sep 2007 23:09:29 +0000 http://cominganarchy.com/2007/09/03/the-future-of-syria-and-jordan/#comment-378104 Question is, Dan, what abilities does Jordan and Syria have to make changes to reduce the feedback? Aside from sealing off their borders, Syria has the following options: a) Switch to actively supporting the Sunnis (the ones most likely to come over their borders) at the expense of the Shiites: this would mean actively defying their allies in Lebanon and Iran. Non-rhetorical question: would the improved relations with other Sunni nations (and their own Sunni population) be worth it? b) Put pressure on the Iraqi Shiites to reduce the slaughter (a, above, could be one such threat). This assumes they're giving enough aid to them to actually hurt; Iran is also lending support, has a common border with the Shiite Arabs, and is probably not getting many refugees. c) Increase the pressure on Sunni refugees to leave; depending on how far they take this, Syria could be shattered (the effect you're hoping for, I suspect). In short, you don't know whether this feedback will have the desired effect on Syria. It should also be pointed out that Jordan is not only NOT giving aid to fighters in Iraq (not that I've heard, anyway) but has one of the milder regimes in the ME (they're one of the few friends Israel has). Chirol's note of their Palestinian population brings up another point; if Jordan collapses, what's the likelihood that they'll just stay meekly in the camps, that they won't take advantage of the chaos to arm themselves and head into the West bank? In short, do you really want Jordan to catch this feedback at all? Question is, Dan, what abilities does Jordan and Syria have to make changes to reduce the feedback? Aside from sealing off their borders, Syria has the following options:
a) Switch to actively supporting the Sunnis (the ones most likely to come over their borders) at the expense of the Shiites: this would mean actively defying their allies in Lebanon and Iran. Non-rhetorical question: would the improved relations with other Sunni nations (and their own Sunni population) be worth it?
b) Put pressure on the Iraqi Shiites to reduce the slaughter (a, above, could be one such threat). This assumes they’re giving enough aid to them to actually hurt; Iran is also lending support, has a common border with the Shiite Arabs, and is probably not getting many refugees.
c) Increase the pressure on Sunni refugees to leave; depending on how far they take this, Syria could be shattered (the effect you’re hoping for, I suspect). In short, you don’t know whether this feedback will have the desired effect on Syria.

It should also be pointed out that Jordan is not only NOT giving aid to fighters in Iraq (not that I’ve heard, anyway) but has one of the milder regimes in the ME (they’re one of the few friends Israel has). Chirol’s note of their Palestinian population brings up another point; if Jordan collapses, what’s the likelihood that they’ll just stay meekly in the camps, that they won’t take advantage of the chaos to arm themselves and head into the West bank? In short, do you really want Jordan to catch this feedback at all?

]]> By: A.E. http://cominganarchy.com/2007/09/03/the-future-of-syria-and-jordan/comment-page-1/#comment-378056 A.E. Tue, 04 Sep 2007 19:56:47 +0000 http://cominganarchy.com/2007/09/03/the-future-of-syria-and-jordan/#comment-378056 I don't think we've seen the last of Sunni groups in Lebanon. That being said, the Lebanese army definitely did prove itself this week. I don’t think we’ve seen the last of Sunni groups in Lebanon. That being said, the Lebanese army definitely did prove itself this week.

]]> By: Dan tdaxp http://cominganarchy.com/2007/09/03/the-future-of-syria-and-jordan/comment-page-1/#comment-378023 Dan tdaxp Mon, 03 Sep 2007 22:31:35 +0000 http://cominganarchy.com/2007/09/03/the-future-of-syria-and-jordan/#comment-378023 <blockquote>. Long term refugee camps will likely lead to increased instability...</blockquote> Good. <blockquote>...hardly a recipe for improvement in the region.</blockquote> Disagree completely. The Iraq War is about <a href="http://www.tdaxp.com/archive/2007/03/22/the-iraq-war-is-about-feedback-more-than-revenge-or-justice.html" rel="nofollow">redirecting feedback on a broken system</a>. Attempting to intentionally dampen the feedback, especially against a rogue state like Syria, works to defeat the entire operation.
. Long term refugee camps will likely lead to increased instability…

Good.

...hardly a recipe for improvement in the region.

Disagree completely.

The Iraq War is about redirecting feedback on a broken system. Attempting to intentionally dampen the feedback, especially against a rogue state like Syria, works to defeat the entire operation.

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