As many breath a sigh of relief that the current crisis in Lebanon is over, Syria meanwhile has stopped allowing Iraqis to enter the country. As violence in Iraq drags on, the real question isn’t how many are there but for how long. Will we see festering refugee camps in Jordan and Syria? Swapping out country names and fast forwarding the date could make the story below a scary prediction:
Lebanon army hunts rebel remnantsLebanese soldiers are searching the north coast for remnants of an Islamist militant group a day after it was routed from a Palestinian refugee camp. The army crushed Fatah al-Islam resistance in Nahr al-Bared camp after a 100-day siege costing 250 lives. Troops combed the camp’s heavily-bombed buildings looking for booby traps and unexploded munitions and mines. Thousands of Palestinians, refugees from Israel’s foundation in 1948, are demanding an early return to the camp.
When I spent a month in Damascus in 2005, Iraqis had already flooded the countries and there was no shortage resentful remarks whether about the clothing hawkers near Bab Touma or the many prostitutes. Long term refugee camps will likely lead to increased instability and matching authoritarianism to deal with the problem, hardly a recipe for improvement in the region. After Lebanon’s own little Hama, it may be time to use more resources on Iraqi refugees.
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COMMENTS / 3 COMMENTS
Dan tdaxp added these pithy words on 03 Sep 07 at 10:31 pm
. Long term refugee camps will likely lead to increased instability…Good.
...hardly a recipe for improvement in the region.Disagree completely.
The Iraq War is about redirecting feedback on a broken system. Attempting to intentionally dampen the feedback, especially against a rogue state like Syria, works to defeat the entire operation.
A.E. added these pithy words on 04 Sep 07 at 7:56 pmI don’t think we’ve seen the last of Sunni groups in Lebanon. That being said, the Lebanese army definitely did prove itself this week.
Michael added these pithy words on 05 Sep 07 at 11:09 pmQuestion is, Dan, what abilities does Jordan and Syria have to make changes to reduce the feedback? Aside from sealing off their borders, Syria has the following options:
a) Switch to actively supporting the Sunnis (the ones most likely to come over their borders) at the expense of the Shiites: this would mean actively defying their allies in Lebanon and Iran. Non-rhetorical question: would the improved relations with other Sunni nations (and their own Sunni population) be worth it?
b) Put pressure on the Iraqi Shiites to reduce the slaughter (a, above, could be one such threat). This assumes they’re giving enough aid to them to actually hurt; Iran is also lending support, has a common border with the Shiite Arabs, and is probably not getting many refugees.
c) Increase the pressure on Sunni refugees to leave; depending on how far they take this, Syria could be shattered (the effect you’re hoping for, I suspect). In short, you don’t know whether this feedback will have the desired effect on Syria.It should also be pointed out that Jordan is not only NOT giving aid to fighters in Iraq (not that I’ve heard, anyway) but has one of the milder regimes in the ME (they’re one of the few friends Israel has). Chirol’s note of their Palestinian population brings up another point; if Jordan collapses, what’s the likelihood that they’ll just stay meekly in the camps, that they won’t take advantage of the chaos to arm themselves and head into the West bank? In short, do you really want Jordan to catch this feedback at all?
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