Recipe for Trouble

According to American Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker, the referendum on the status of Kirkuk will likely be delayed.

“There is a general realization out there that, as a practical matter, it is going to be very hard to stick to the original timetable,” US Ambassador Ryan Crocker told Reuters in Baghdad late on Thursday.”The timetable for the end of the year was set with an expectation that the preparations would move ahead in a way (that) they haven’t,” he said.

This doesn’t bode well. The Kurds have been waiting patiently not just for Kirkuk but for the rest of the country to get its act together. As the violence that affects mostly Baghdad and environs heads north, this area will clearly have more to gain by joining the safety of Kurdistan than remaining part of the rest of Iraq. If the vote is indeed delayed and violence escalates, we could see the people themselves demand it, which would of course be a demand not just to join Kurdistan but to increase their safety. On the other hand, that would provide excellent political cover as well. Time will tell.