In Brave New War, John Robb poses the question: “Will global guerrillas strive for a complete shutdown of Iraq’s infrastructure, or do they achieve more through a partial shutdown?”

Previously, I argued that Russia was intentionally creating a seam-state curtain around it. This includes the conflicts in Transdniester, South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Kosovo and Nagorno-Karabagh as well as Russia meddling in Ukraine and support of Belarus. One can pose the same question: Will Russia strive for a complete shutdown of these areas, or does she achieve more through a partial shutdown?”

As time has shown in both cases, the answer is clear: a partial shutdown. As Robb notes, partial disruption helps delegitimize the state and also creates a situation where the government is still responsible for failures. “Partial disruption maximizes economic attrition and provides the illusion that the situation is manageable.”
Indeed, one of Russia’s goals in Georgia is to prevent foreign direct investment by supporting the two breakaway regions, disrupting energy supplies, banning its major exports and through use of organized crime.

Thus, the ongoing veto threat on a Kosovo resolution does not represent a vital national interest of Russia’s nor would it be a real threat or blow to the West. Devoid of positive influence in many parts of the world, Putin continues to play the spoiler with its only real move being a unilateral recognition of other breakaway regions which would amount to little. Russia currently does everything but make its recognition official and such a move would not be accepted by the West or UN. In addition, the affected countries could easily retaliate by recognizing Chechnya.

Russia’s political disruption in Kosovo and continuing disruption in Moldova and the South Caucasus must be stopped head on. While its influence cannot be entirely rolled back, Kosovo can be the first victory and can push the fight on to Belarus and Moldova. However, the EU’s lethargic and often cowardly foreign policy is the biggest obstacle only if these problems are upgraded to a higher priority can they be solved. If Europe can send troops to help fix, repair and prevent failed states in Africa and Central Asia, surely their own backyard is equally as important.

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