In Brave New War, John Robb poses the question: “Will global guerrillas strive for a complete shutdown of Iraq’s infrastructure, or do they achieve more through a partial shutdown?”
Previously, I argued that Russia was intentionally creating a seam-state curtain around it. This includes the conflicts in Transdniester, South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Kosovo and Nagorno-Karabagh as well as Russia meddling in Ukraine and support of Belarus. One can pose the same question: Will Russia strive for a complete shutdown of these areas, or does she achieve more through a partial shutdown?”
As time has shown in both cases, the answer is clear: a partial shutdown. As Robb notes, partial disruption helps delegitimize the state and also creates a situation where the government is still responsible for failures. “Partial disruption maximizes economic attrition and provides the illusion that the situation is manageable.”
Indeed, one of Russia’s goals in Georgia is to prevent foreign direct investment by supporting the two breakaway regions, disrupting energy supplies, banning its major exports and through use of organized crime.
Thus, the ongoing veto threat on a Kosovo resolution does not represent a vital national interest of Russia’s nor would it be a real threat or blow to the West. Devoid of positive influence in many parts of the world, Putin continues to play the spoiler with its only real move being a unilateral recognition of other breakaway regions which would amount to little. Russia currently does everything but make its recognition official and such a move would not be accepted by the West or UN. In addition, the affected countries could easily retaliate by recognizing Chechnya.
Russia’s political disruption in Kosovo and continuing disruption in Moldova and the South Caucasus must be stopped head on. While its influence cannot be entirely rolled back, Kosovo can be the first victory and can push the fight on to Belarus and Moldova. However, the EU’s lethargic and often cowardly foreign policy is the biggest obstacle only if these problems are upgraded to a higher priority can they be solved. If Europe can send troops to help fix, repair and prevent failed states in Africa and Central Asia, surely their own backyard is equally as important.
From the point of view of Transdniestria, Moldova’s territorial claim is plain and simple irredentism. Maybe it is time to address some of the myths before we “send troops” to deal with issues that are of political, not military, nature.
Check out http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20070731/70039794.html which is an analysis called “Transdnestr: myths and realities”
The United States will have to do much more to persuade others to share its political agenda.
It was reported this week that US influence is in decline. The Italian Foreign Minister Massimo D’Alema called publicly for the cessation of all US military operations in Afghanistan, except strictly under NATO command. “The change of leadership in France, Germany and Britain doesn’t seem to work quite the way Washington expected.”
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The odd thing is, Kosovo doesn’t quite match the rest of the list. It has several other countries between it and Russia, such that Russia would need to bring back the Warsaw Pact for it to serve that purpose. Russia’s pressure isn’t doing very well (I read recently on BBC that the Serbian government is giving ground to preserve its EU prospects). And it sets a precedent that would seemingly hurt their case in Moldova/Transdneister and Georgia/S. Ossetia/Abkhazia! Either Putin is playing an entirely different game there, or he isn’t very good at playing the game.