A Long Game: The Rise of China in Oceania

Hooray! It’s “Oceania Day”:http://cominganarchy.com/tag/oceania-day once again. This time “the strategist”:http://kotare.typepad.com/thestrategist/ gives us some insight into the changing power balance in the South Pacific. – YH

Oceania is often seen as a strategic backwater, isolated from the whirlpool of great power politics. This is far from true. In the 19th century, Western powers carved up Oceania’s islands. In World War Two and the Cold War, American preponderance in the Pacific was challenged, unsuccessfully, by Japan and the Soviet Union. For well over a century, Oceania has generally been a Western lake.

Rising Asian powers, in particular China, are now quietly contesting the West’s stranglehold. Over the past decade Beijing has boosted its regional profile and presence. This is visible in new embassies, lavish aid and loan packages, high profile political visits, red carpet treatment for Pacific leaders, and substantial commercial investment. This comes at a juncture when US interest in Oceania has waned, and Britain, a former colonial power, has left the region.

There are a number of reasons for Beijing’s interest in Oceania:

* *Political machinations:* China seeks to counter Taiwanese influence. Six Pacific states recognize Taiwan; the rest recognize China. Beijing wants to keep its allies onside and persuade the others to leave Taiwan’s camp. As inducements, Beijing spends lavishly on aid programmes, and provides soft loans and debt write-offs for struggling Pacific states.

* *Raw materials:* China needs oil, minerals and timber to fuel its burgeoning economy. East Timor and Papua New Guinea (PNG) have significant oil and gas deposits, while Melanesia is rich in minerals and timber. China has invested heavily in PNG’s mining, timber and fishing sectors. It has carried out extensive oceanographic research in Oceania – this includes surveying seabed minerals and fish stocks. Large Chinese fishing fleets exploit deep sea fisheries.
* *Migrants:* Beijing has consular responsibility for Chinese people who have recently migrated to Oceania. Migrant Chinese dominate the small business sector in island capitals. In PNG, Chinese businessmen have become influential in the mining and timber industries. Migrants provide Beijing with useful intelligence and links to local politicians and officials.
* *Military threats:* China keeps a watchful eye on US military movements in Micronesia. If China attacked Taiwan, Guam would be a key staging post for US forces moving to assist Taipei. Until recently the Chinese military maintained a base on Tarawa (Beijing closed the base when Kiribati recognized Taiwan). This base was part of China’s space warfare programme, and spied on the US missile testing range at Kwajalein Atoll (Marshall Islands).

China’s engagement has troubling implications for Pacific island states, and for New Zealand and Australia, which I will explore in a later post. It may also presage a wider Chinese ambition, one in which Oceania forms the outer zone of a Chinese sphere of influence.

One trend is evident. The increasing presence of China, and Japan, Korea and Taiwan, reflects a gradual shift from a Western dominated Pacific order to a more complex situation in which rising North Asian powers challenge the dominance and comfortable assumptions