I can’t help but chuckle at this news story: Iran bans negative petrol stories. In reaction to rationing of gasoline and outrage by the public that resulted in several gas stations being torched, the top Iranian security body ordered local journalists not to report on the gasoline problems.
Of course, television stations initially didn’t even mention the unrest, and mostly interviewed people who said they supported the rationing.
But the reaction by the authorities to try and control the unrest shows the power of the state in the technological age. Last night, Iran had the mobile text messaging system in Tehran switched off to prevent motorists from organizing more protests.
Iran has a low crime rate, and riots of this kind are unusual. But there are multiple causes for frustration now. First, the rationing was sprung on the public—reformist papers are still complained about the abrupt way in which it was announced, saying even the police chief and the petrol station owners were not aware of the move. Another issue is the recent sharp rise in the cost of living. And Iran has real economic problems. The government is trying to push down fuel consumption over fears of possible sanctions over its nuclear program. Despite its huge energy reserves, Iran lacks refining capacity and it actually imports about 40% of its petrol. And with little economy outside of its exports of raw hydrocarbons, the country has a large budget deficit and the inflation rate is estimated at 20-30% per year.
- BROWSE / IN TIMELINE
- « Mapping piracy
- » Music as a weapon
COMMENTS / 5 COMMENTS
Kurt9 added these pithy words on 28 Jun 07 at 4:30 pmThis is the reason why Bush, Cheney and Co. are dumb to provoke a war with Iran.
It is useful to remember that Ahmadinejad was elected on a platform focused mainly on domestic social-economic issues. He promised to reform the economic, reduce inflation, and cut out the corruption in the government and economy. This is how he carried the Tehran vote.
He has failed to deliver on any of this. The economy is worse than when he took office. Inflation has increased, and he has done nothing to curb governmental corruption. In short, he and his cohorts are hanging themselves.
However, by making provocative statements to the West, he gets people like Bush and Cheney to growl and make threats against Iran and, thusly, creates the “rally around the flag” effect that all incompetant leaders always seek to create.
For incomprehensible reasons, the neo-cons fail to understand this dynamic. By growling and threatening Iran, they unwittingly help to prop up a regime that is on its way out by its own actions.
The best course of action is for Bush and Cheney to sit back, stop responding to Ahmedinejad’s provocations, and eat popcorn and watch the Iran regime hang itself by its own actions.
ElamBend added these pithy words on 29 Jun 07 at 1:26 amIt could be that Bush et al. are blustering also. In Iraq, we are for all intensive purposes at war with elements of the Iranian power structure. However, bluster by Cheney forces to regime to divert resources to the possibility of war and to its proxies. Every petro-dollar spent on Hamas, Hezboallah, or in Iraq is money not spent in Iran. Their economy is extremely vulnerable to pressure points. What would ‘war’ on iran look like? What would a naval blockade of some of that 40% of gasoline imported do? Or a mysterious pipeline explosion?
Why sit back and hope for a time-line of a melt down when you can secretly push it to the edge, or at least rattle those in power enough that they make even more mistakes.
An invasion would be stupid, even a massive attack, but neither of those options would be needed to squeeze them by the nuts.
snow added these pithy words on 29 Jun 07 at 2:29 amSitting back and doing nothing may not achieve the desired effect. Kim Jong Il in North Korea has hung on longer than anyone expected, but it seems that the only thing that got him really nervous were sanctions and tightening the screws financially. As ElamBand says, why not find ways to squeeze them without actually having to go to war, which would be highly risky and uncontrollable.
ElamBend added these pithy words on 29 Jun 07 at 5:01 amHit’em where it hurts: cash and gas (petrol).
Ship111 added these pithy words on 29 Jun 07 at 2:03 pmIf you go to CFR.ORG’s website, you’ll see that this rationing was planned last year (was supposed to start in March). Since Iran subsidizes gas prices to make it extremely cheap and below market, people are used to really low prices and consumption is pretty high considering the high poverty/inflation rates.
The purpose of the rationing is to decrease the subsidy allotments and re-allocate to building military. The more the U.S. can threaten military action the better. Everyone thinks that Cheney is the head of some secret shadow govt, so having him rattle the sabre probably scares the mullahs a little.
If the price of oil dropped below $50, I’m sure their inflation rate would make the jump to hyperinflation and give the people needed leverage the country. That and the fact that 150,000 of their best/brightest leave the country each year will continue to lead them into economic failure.
SPEAK / ADD YOUR COMMENT
Comments are moderated.
