I can’t help but chuckle at this news story: Iran bans negative petrol stories. In reaction to rationing of gasoline and outrage by the public that resulted in several gas stations being torched, the top Iranian security body ordered local journalists not to report on the gasoline problems.
Of course, television stations initially didn’t even mention the unrest, and mostly interviewed people who said they supported the rationing.
But the reaction by the authorities to try and control the unrest shows the power of the state in the technological age. Last night, Iran had the mobile text messaging system in Tehran switched off to prevent motorists from organizing more protests.
Iran has a low crime rate, and riots of this kind are unusual. But there are multiple causes for frustration now. First, the rationing was sprung on the public—reformist papers are still complained about the abrupt way in which it was announced, saying even the police chief and the petrol station owners were not aware of the move. Another issue is the recent sharp rise in the cost of living. And Iran has real economic problems. The government is trying to push down fuel consumption over fears of possible sanctions over its nuclear program. Despite its huge energy reserves, Iran lacks refining capacity and it actually imports about 40% of its petrol. And with little economy outside of its exports of raw hydrocarbons, the country has a large budget deficit and the inflation rate is estimated at 20-30% per year.
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Comments to this entry
Kurt9
June 28, 2007
4:30 pm
It is useful to remember that Ahmadinejad was elected on a platform focused mainly on domestic social-economic issues. He promised to reform the economic, reduce inflation, and cut out the corruption in the government and economy. This is how he carried the Tehran vote.
He has failed to deliver on any of this. The economy is worse than when he took office. Inflation has increased, and he has done nothing to curb governmental corruption. In short, he and his cohorts are hanging themselves.
However, by making provocative statements to the West, he gets people like Bush and Cheney to growl and make threats against Iran and, thusly, creates the "rally around the flag" effect that all incompetant leaders always seek to create.
For incomprehensible reasons, the neo-cons fail to understand this dynamic. By growling and threatening Iran, they unwittingly help to prop up a regime that is on its way out by its own actions.
The best course of action is for Bush and Cheney to sit back, stop responding to Ahmedinejad's provocations, and eat popcorn and watch the Iran regime hang itself by its own actions.
ElamBend
June 29, 2007
1:26 am
Why sit back and hope for a time-line of a melt down when you can secretly push it to the edge, or at least rattle those in power enough that they make even more mistakes.
An invasion would be stupid, even a massive attack, but neither of those options would be needed to squeeze them by the nuts.
snow
June 29, 2007
2:29 am
ElamBend
June 29, 2007
5:01 am
Ship111
June 29, 2007
2:03 pm
The purpose of the rationing is to decrease the subsidy allotments and re-allocate to building military. The more the U.S. can threaten military action the better. Everyone thinks that Cheney is the head of some secret shadow govt, so having him rattle the sabre probably scares the mullahs a little.
If the price of oil dropped below $50, I'm sure their inflation rate would make the jump to hyperinflation and give the people needed leverage the country. That and the fact that 150,000 of their best/brightest leave the country each year will continue to lead them into economic failure.