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Chirol
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Chirol

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June 26th, 2007

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Iraqi Kurdistan: The End of Turkey’s EU Dreams?

With weekly threats from Turkey to invade Iraqi Kurdistan, it seems the situation is becoming progressively worse. While the PKK is a problem, it is of course only the ostensible reason. In fact, free Kurds make Turkey nervous and rightly so. During my visit to Turkish Kurdistan this March, the excitement about Iraq was palpable. It was on everyone’s minds and lips. Their fellow Kurds to the south are free and the Turkish government and military are worried that their own 14 million Kurds will seek what many feel they long deserve: their own independence. As the military takes over the southeast and continuously prepares for the often-announced invasion, the situation is becoming worse. Violence is occurring more and more often and with a wealth of new targets (i.e. Turkish military) agitating the situation in the region, it seems unlikely to let up.

As the situation worsens, so do Turkey’s chances for EU membership. One of the biggest sticking points is Ankara’s human rights record with regard to the Kurds in Turkey. Until recently, the Kurdish language was outlawed along with the letters used in writing it, any Kurdish media, Kurdish names, and everything else remotely Kurdish. While on paper the situation has improved, even the cosmetic changes made to the Turkish penal code may not survive the rising tensions.

About 10 days ago I wrote

With the entrance of a safe, successful and largely independent Iraqi Kurdistan on the world stage, real competition has emerged for the Turkish state. While previously independence was a unrealistic dream and those wanting a future were forced to integrate and being “Turkicized”?, an alternative future has emerged with which the Turks will not be able to compete and will be forced to rely on force and that, ironically, may be what ignites the outcome they so fear.

Indeed, separatism isn’t the only outcome but also the death blow to Turkey’s EU dreams. With the leaders of Europe’s two biggest countries, both Germany’s Angela Merkel and now France’s Nicolas Sarkozy, against Turkey’s membership its chances have never been worse. And it seems that Iraqi Kurdistan may be the last straw. The real question is, what will a non-EU Turkish future look like and what will it mean for the region?

Comments to this entry

Blog Bound Up | Prose Before Hos
June 26, 2007
2:57 pm
[...] old ship, Israel’s influence on American foreign policy, 10 Attributes of Really Lazy People, Iraqi Kurdistan The End of Turkey's EU Dreams?, and finally, Wind Powered [...]
Dan tdaxp
June 27, 2007
3:41 am
The horrible reality for Turish Europeanizers -- all the way back to the Young Ottomans -- is that to be a European country means that non-European possessions can be only colonies. But the East still calls Turkey in her dreams.
Jimm
June 27, 2007
9:25 am
Turkey still has too much to lose by invading. And Turkey has taken the Iraq border build-up this far BECAUSE of dashed European hopes. The hope of EU membership has genuinely done a great deal of good to Turkey, certainly as regards the economy, political stability and the weakening of the army's policy veto. Turkey still has a very long way to go before becoming a true liberal democracy, and it will take a great deal of time, but the benefits to the west of having (one day) a large, pluralistic, fairly permissive and economically successful liberal democracy between Iran, Iraq, Syria and Europe should far outweigh whatever xenophobic concerns regarding immigration and spending that the French and German electorates put forth. And it's possible.

There may even be a way in which anti-Kurdish sentiment cements a sense (sorry) of unity among most of the population. It's not healthy, I grant you.

Interesting and calm analysis from the Asia Times here about the "cultural divide" and "political earthquake" of late:
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/IF26Ak02.html
Debris
June 28, 2007
7:05 am
Yep, imagine the EU flag waving at Silopi´s border crossing...and Iran´s, and Syria´s...

Anybody thought Turkey would ever join the EU?
Jimm
June 28, 2007
10:40 am
Turkey's hopes look pretty forlorn, it's true.

But there was a time when no one would have believed Romania and Bulgaria would get in. And Bosnia-Herzegovina is a candidate!

There may be a time when Europe needs a large supply of cheap labour, an influx of young people to balance its greying population, an ideological totem in the form of a Muslim (not Islamic) democracy, more direct transit routes to Central Asia and an eastern military bulwark to a fiery Middle East.

Of course, everything might change and Europe may need nothing of the sort.
oddball
June 29, 2007
8:41 pm
I remember not so long ago, the US mission was to remove WMD from Iraq. Then, it was to depose Saddam and bring democracy to Iraq. No, no, no! It was really free the Kurds and give them autonomy. NO! NO! NO! The mission is to setup a new nation, for the Kurds. As mission creep gets more and more out of control, so does the rhetoric. This is a good time to step back and look at history before we get ahead of ourselves. I would like to remind everybody, at the minimum, that the Treaty of Lausanne provides for a unified Iraq, among other things. And it appears that the new "mission" will destroy the Treaty, along with any Turkish commitment to it. A nullified treaty means that the Turks, by default, resume all land claims (rightfully) to any land that was once within Turkish territory. Not to mention of course, there's now way in the world anybody in the neighborhood is going to let the Kurds breathe once the US leaves. Kurds' star is shining at the moment, only because they're US friendly. I see mission creep moving in the direction of getting 30 million Kurdish immigrants to the US.
Is Turkish Invasion of Northern Iraq Imminent? at Forward Deployed
October 23, 2007
9:25 am
[...] situation in Turkey.  My experience dealing with Turkish Kurds nearly matches the same experiences Coming Anarchy’s Chirol had while traveling around eastern Turkey this past [...]