The Cost of Kosovo

To the casual visitor in Kosovo, independence is everywhere. Shop owners and taxi drivers wax on about freedom and independence. Every third building is spray painted with Kosovo’s semi-official graffiti saying “Jo Negociata! Vetëvendosje!” meaning “No negotiations! Independence!” On the ground, the province has been operating as a de facto independent state since NATO’s intervention in 1999, yet politically the further Kosovo comes, the further off independence seems. Why is this?

Although technically an internationally recognized part of Serbia, only Serbia and its Russian ally believe this. Since being unofficially separated from Serbia, the United Nations has taken over the governing. KFOR soldiers patrol the streets in areas prone to ethnic strife and western trained Kosovar police walk the streets with new uniforms and weapons. But despite Kosovo’s the remote and war-torn impression many have from the media, a stroll through Prishtina, Peja or Prizren could almost be mistaken for one in the European Union. With fashionably dressed youth, more and more Western chains and a multilingual population, Kosovo looks closer to Europe than it sounds.

While in Kosovo last month, independence seemed not only like a foregone conclusion, but one soon in coming. Word was that a final decision would be reached by the UN Security Council, soon to meet, and that the issue would be settled once and for all. Yet, over a month later, nothing has changed. Russia continues to threaten to veto such a measure and Serbia remains intransigent while the West continues to push forward. The G8’s recent meeting yielded similar results. Yes, nothing has changed.

Many observers have noted that the current political constellation in Europe, now aligned more with the United States, has given rise to many opportunities. One of those, not often noted is that of Kosovar independence. On President Bush’s recent visit to Albania, he remarked that “Enough is enough, Kosovo is independent.” However, although it at times seemed Russia was bluffing with regard to Kosovo, it’s continued hardline stance leaves little room to doubt. With a UN resolution unlikely and any agreement between Serbia and Kosovo quite impossible, unilateral recognition will likely be the only way.

Yet, there will be significant political costs for both the United States and Europe. Russia continues to use it as a bargaining chip. Since Kosovar independence is already a given for the West, this gives Moscow a significant advantage. Already being squeezed out of Eastern Europe, Russia’s last bastions of influence are Belarus, eastern Ukraine, Transdniester and Serbia. Is Russia pursuing a kind of scorched earth policy, creating failed states in Eastern Europe or does it have some constructive interest there?

The most cited significance of Kosovar independence is its effect on the so-called frozen conflicts in the Caucasus as well as Moldova. Yet, although the conflicts in Kosovo, Trandniester, South Ossetia, Abkhazia and Nagorno-Karabagh are vastly different, the precedent that could be set is relevant, namely, that it would be the first time a country is broken up by the UN, or at least NATO against that country’s will. Indeed a dangerous precedent. But how much so?

As American and European support for an independent Kosovo is a given, a Russian refusual to recognize an independent Kosovo, even if declared so outside the UN, would amount to little. Yet, Russian recognition of breakaway territories like Abkhazia and South Ossetia would change little since they already do so in practice. Even Nagorno-Karabakh couldn’t gain much from pushing for recognition as it has no real political support outside Armenia. At best Russia may recognize it though American aid money to Armenia could be a good card to play in such a situation.

While it seems Washington is pushing hard to get the Kosovo question settled this year, Russia is intent on holding out for the highest price it can exact. Russia still has adequate pull in Eastern Europe making Serbia far from a vital interest. Indeed, Serbia is rather a convenient bargaining tool on other fronts and should be seen as such. As Europe and the US grow impatient with the needlessly drawn out issue, it is time to find Russia’s real price and decide. With Moscow’s continued blackmail of the West over Kosovo, it’s time to ask ourselves whether inaction costs more than action..