On Demographics, Part 2: Kissinger’s Six

Henry Kissinger has prescribed that the 21st century will not be unipolar or bipolar, but a multipolar balance between six powers: Japan, China, Russia, the European Union, India, and the United States. Kissinger was looking at a perspective of global power and influence, but what does the future hold for each of these nations from a demographic perspective?

Four of Kissinger’s six will see the limit of their political power inherently limited by their populations, which will age and shrink one way or another.

• As noted in part 1, the population of Japan is on a slow downward trend, and the shrinking workforce and potential for growth is constricting its economy and its status us a world power.
• Europe is not far behind Japan. States such as Italy, Germany and Spain will be the first to shrink, following by the former satellite states. The two European countries that will continue to grow are Britain and France, but only because of liberal immigration policies that have brought complicated social problems and grave threats, such as domestic terrorism and inner-city riots.
• Russia’s mortality rate is catastrophic, its birth rate abysmal, and its population has been in decline for a decade. Regardless of its current designs on regaining its role as a major power, demographics have essentially doomed the Russia’s future prospects to the point where we must ask how long it can even hold on to its territory.
• China is in the strongest position of these four nations, but while it’s population will continue to grow for another 50 years, its workforce is at its peak now. As noted in part 1 (and vigorously debated in the comments), China’s “dead weight” population of elderly may place a burden on the economy before it reaches First World standards.

The only two powers in Kissinger’s six that will continue to grow and maintain a robust workforce are the United States and India. Does the future belong to Washington and New Dehli? Let’s take a look at the two powers:

The United States has grown from 180 million in 1960, 308 million today, and 400 million by 2060. The US is in a far more advantageous position than India, in that it faces no immediate constraint of resources. However, it does face an uncomfortable situation where its entire infrastructure and political economy is based on the premise of cheap energy and simple individual transportation, and deprived of either it may well suffer an economic meltdown.

That being said, the US is probably in the strongest position of Kissinger’s six. It has a growing population with a robust workforce, a stable birth rate of 2.0 per female, compounded with a high rate of immigration and the historical potential to assimilate large numbers of people at a high rate.

India had a population of 443 million in 1960, a population of 1.1 billion today, and will have an estimated population of 1.9 billion in 2060. This incredible growth comes with real potential for making India a great power, but this is accompanied by political and environmental challenges that may be unprecedented in human history. India is already facing issues with limitation on its water supply, which will become an even greater issue as the population all but doubles.

India has the greatest potential of Kissinger’s six, but also faces the gravest dangers. What is true for the water supply is also true for commodities and resources, the lifeblood of the economy. And as India becomes more and more crowded, what will happen to its society and its politics?

That actually brings me to the topic to be covered in Part 3: the terrifying spectre of the exploding population of the undeveloped (and ungoverned) regions of the world, to be posted in yet another 48 hours.