According to the Economist, America’s Energy Information Administration released its annual International Energy Outlook and forecast that the world’s consumption of energy would increase by a whopping 57% between 2004 and 2030.
And the developed world’s days of taking heat for being such a big consumer of energy are on the way out—the carbon emissions of the developing countries surpassed those of the industrialised countries in 2004 for the first time, and as the graph to the right shows, this trend is expected to continue. Also, China will overtake America as the world’s biggest energy user within the next two decades.
If oil prices remain as high as they are today, coal was predicted to be the fastest-growing energy source. But no one has yet convincingly answered exactly where all this new energy is going to come from.
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Fatwah Friday, Courtesy of PBH | Prose Before Hos added these pithy words on May 25 07 at 4:33 pm[...] In more acidic news, who loves the troops? I do, I do! Well, enough to give them a 6 dollar raise! Yesssssssss. I bet you can buy adequate body armor with that kind of dough. Then again, one can only hope that all the festering bodies will decompose quickly to mix with dinosaur bones to give us more wonderful petrol. [...]
ElamBend added these pithy words on 25 May 07 at 12:10 pmEventually, the American government will release the alien technology it has gained from the beings we met at Roswell…;)
Or, nuclear may become much more important. Falling refinery capacity in countries with state oil companies (think, Mexico, Venezuela, Iran) will become a a bigger deal.
Otherwise, we’ll probably burn more of what we’ve got and hope something new comes along, like we’ve been doing for a while.
jon added these pithy words on 25 May 07 at 1:57 pmUnless we can continue to improve our energy efficiency in the developed world, and help the developing world to build efficiency into their systems, we could have some very unpleasant competition for resources. At least until we get our solar powered flying cars. ;>)
subadei added these pithy words on 25 May 07 at 11:34 pmBig Oils most terrifying bogeyman is federal regulation. Given the direction US politics have swayed (and will likely further sway) and the increasing burden on Americans wallets in the form of $3.00 per gallon gasoline prices such regulation seems more feasible by the day. In the eyes of Big Oil this is the equivalent of “the end is nigh.” As such they are likely to, in the short term, “take one for the team” and deflate or equalize oil prices, regardless of demand or refinery shortcomings. The long term will be research and development of the “next best thing since sliced bread” in terms of energy. I’m betting hydrogen as solar and electric are both unrealistic and ethanol places economic burdens on agriculture.
In short I have to wonder whether the forecast takes into consideration both the marketplace and the sheer ingenuity of human beings. I suspect it illustrates a pattern based on data collected in 2004 and ignores politics, economics and ingenuity.
snow added these pithy words on 28 May 07 at 9:22 amYes, I expect we won’t be weening ourselves off of oil for a long time still. Entrepreneurs are going full tilt trying to find or develop alternatives, but to get to a point where these alternatives could overtake oil is a long way off. I think the best approach is a multi-pronged approach of going for as many options as possible. Let them all be developed and whichever one wins in terms of the market, then so be it. I find it quite dubious that the developed world expects the developing world to forgo development so as to supposedly save the world. Why shouldn’t developing countries be able to enjoy their luxuries as we do? At the same time, we should help them to move towards environmentally friendly alternatives. In the end, though, oil is here to stay for a long time, so we might as well find more sources of it, hopefully in friendly countries and try alternatives such as nuclear and others that seem most promising.
Steve French added these pithy words on 28 May 07 at 10:50 pmNuclear is the obvious choice – Soob, you might want to check out the Popular Mechanics article on the future hydrogen economy before you get optimistic about it (Short version – hydrogen is a store of energy, not a source).
Also, America does have massive coal reserves…
Hamilton added these pithy words on 30 May 07 at 5:39 amSteve, I’m with you on nuclear power, unfortunately the “environmentalists” are not. Their best bet is for you to live in a grass hut and spend a meaningful 30-40 year lifespan hunting and gathering (but not too much). Super, where do I sign up?
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