After 13 days the 15 British sailors and marines were freed by “Mahmoud the Magnanimous” as a “gift” to the British people in celebration of the Prophet’s birthday and Easter. Near the end of the crisis there was a lot of activity with talk of ratcheting up sanctions, a demonstration of a “split within”:http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article1596694.ece “Iranian ranks”:http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/04/world/middleeast/04iran.html and a “possible prisoner exchange”:http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/04/03/africa/web0403-iraq.php. (But “no deal was done”:http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/6529431.stm)
Iran’s unexpected move to release the prisoners has been recognized as a PR victory by both sides. Observers seem to agree on the lesson to be drawn from the entire event, but the effects may only be short-term. I have gathered some quotes from around the web, including blogs and newspaper articles, for your pleasure.
“…now that the affair has been resolved, peacefully, doesn’t it show … that tough, hard-headed negotiations with Iran can work? It seems to me that there’s a lesson in today’s news, as we start to tackle the really big issue — Tehran’s nuclear program. Maybe bombing first and asking questions later isn’t the way to go.”
“”? Noah Shachtman, “Danger Room”:http://blog.wired.com/defense/2007/04/brit_sailors_fr.html
“Islamic Republic of Iran, when genuinely engaged, is negotiable … Iran’s establishment is more united than everyone thinks … Ali Larijani, who brokered the deal, is the real president of Iran … Islamic Republic, including its radical elements, is not a rogue and irrational regime … Ahmadinejad is one heck of a street-smart politician.”
“”? Hossein Derakhshan, “Hoder.com”:http://hoder.com/weblog/archives/015927.shtml “Ten lessons about Islamic Republic of Iran”
“They got what they wanted. They sent a message: If you don’t deal with us, if you think you can push us around, you’re in for some nasty surprises. But if you deal with us, you can get a ‘gift.’ ”
“”? “Bruce Riedel”:http://www.brookings.edu/scholars/briedel.htm, Brookings Institution
“This shows that there is a useful and conducive way to deal with Iran and that it is not through threats. If Britain had not taken this to the Security Council, then this would have been resolved earlier.”
“”? Anonymous senior Iranian official
“The Revolutionary Guards wanted to send a signal to the U.S. and U.K. that ‘if you mess with us, we’ll mess with you. We know where you’re vulnerable.’ ”
“”? “Bruce Riedel”:http://www.brookings.edu/scholars/briedel.htm, Brookings Institution
“They are so consumed with short-term issues — how to undermine the West and how to gain leverage — at the expense of long-term strategy. … In the long term, it undermines their ability to attract foreign investment and have good relations” [with the outside world]
“”? “Karim Sadjadpour”:http://www.carnegieendowment.org/experts/index.cfm?fa=expert_view&expert_id=340&prog=zgp&proj=zme,znpp, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
“What they are doing with the sailors will not benefit Iran and it will even worsen the international conditions for the Islamic Republic.”
“”? Mohammad-Reza Jalaipour, former government official
Karim’s comment is the most astute. In the long run, Iran’s interests are not being served by these charades. However, it’s very hard to tell who’s charge these days—”Mahmoud the Magnanimous,” the Guardian Council, the Basji, etc. This seizure is as much about Iranian domestic politics as it is about the larger Middle East, and I think the primary benefit that the Iranian president got was a boost in the factional battles.
The last two quotations were right on the money. It’s possible that people in the region view this as a triumph for Iran. I simply have no idea.
But how does this play in the UK? France? Germany? Most importantly, how does it play in Beijing? I doubt that it will do much to bolster the idea that Iran is a serious, reliable trading partner. Especially not when they’re able to boost the price of their primary export by fomenting an incident.
See “Karim’s talk on C-SPAN”:http://www.c-span.org/rss/video.asp?MediaID=30411 and “Hoder’s criticisms”:http://hoder.com/weblog/archives/015940.shtml on the Karim of late.
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The only lesson I’ve drawn from this whole sound and fury episode is that poor Albion is but a shadow of what she used to be. A once beautiful woman past her prime yet clinging still to the illusion that her body is anything other than a dessicated husk.
A hundred years past, she would have taught the wogs what for to the tune of 60 pounders and Enfields. Now? Now she is humbled so far as to say please.
My take: EVERYBODY has been on edge and trying to keep things from spiralling out of control without actually giving up any advantage. Handing anybody the prize cup is premature.