Lessons Learned

After 13 days the 15 British sailors and marines were freed by “Mahmoud the Magnanimous” as a “gift” to the British people in celebration of the Prophet’s birthday and Easter. Near the end of the crisis there was a lot of activity with talk of ratcheting up sanctions, a demonstration of a split within Iranian ranks and a possible prisoner exchange. (But no deal was done)

Iran’s unexpected move to release the prisoners has been recognized as a PR victory by both sides. Observers seem to agree on the lesson to be drawn from the entire event, but the effects may only be short-term. I have gathered some quotes from around the web, including blogs and newspaper articles, for your pleasure.

“…now that the affair has been resolved, peacefully, doesn’t it show … that tough, hard-headed negotiations with Iran can work? It seems to me that there’s a lesson in today’s news, as we start to tackle the really big issue—Tehran’s nuclear program. Maybe bombing first and asking questions later isn’t the way to go.”
“”? Noah Shachtman, Danger Room

“Islamic Republic of Iran, when genuinely engaged, is negotiable … Iran’s establishment is more united than everyone thinks … Ali Larijani, who brokered the deal, is the real president of Iran … Islamic Republic, including its radical elements, is not a rogue and irrational regime … Ahmadinejad is one heck of a street-smart politician.”
“”? Hossein Derakhshan, Hoder.com “Ten lessons about Islamic Republic of Iran”

“They got what they wanted. They sent a message: If you don’t deal with us, if you think you can push us around, you’re in for some nasty surprises. But if you deal with us, you can get a ‘gift.’ ”
“”? Bruce Riedel, Brookings Institution

“This shows that there is a useful and conducive way to deal with Iran and that it is not through threats. If Britain had not taken this to the Security Council, then this would have been resolved earlier.”
“”? Anonymous senior Iranian official

“The Revolutionary Guards wanted to send a signal to the U.S. and U.K. that ‘if you mess with us, we’ll mess with you. We know where you’re vulnerable.’ ”
“”? Bruce Riedel, Brookings Institution

“They are so consumed with short-term issues—how to undermine the West and how to gain leverage—at the expense of long-term strategy. … In the long term, it undermines their ability to attract foreign investment and have good relations” [with the outside world]
“”? Karim Sadjadpour, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

“What they are doing with the sailors will not benefit Iran and it will even worsen the international conditions for the Islamic Republic.”
“”? Mohammad-Reza Jalaipour, former government official