First the rich and middle class lived downtown. Then they moved to the suburbs when the poor and criminal elements moved in. This has been a pattern all over the world and especially in the United States. Gated communities are nothing new and in fact, many such as John Robb have discussed how security will filter down to such basic levels where those who can, pay for extra security and wall themselves off from other areas whereas everyone else just receives the “minimum coverage”.

State level fragmentation?

Second, as has been discussed here and elsewhere, globalization tends to lead to global integration and regional fragmentation as smaller states find themselves more flexible and ultimately successful on their own, provided they are under a larger security umbrella (e.g. the EU). Yet, forgetting the global level, what does this look like on the national level. This article may be a clue.

White Atlanta suburbs push for secession

ATLANTA - A potentially explosive dispute in the City Too Busy to Hate is taking shape over a proposal to break Fulton County in two and split off Atlanta’s predominantly white, affluent suburbs to the north from some of the metropolitan area’s poorest, black neighborhoods. Legislation that would allow the suburbs to form their own county, to be called Milton County, was introduced by members of the Georgia Legislature’s Republican majority earlier this month.

While race issues are worse in the south than elsewhere, this could be a useful precedent for other states and counties. The article notes for example,

represent 29 percent of the county’s population of 915,000 but pay 42 percent of its property taxes, according to a local taxpayers group. A split would lead to the loss of $193 million in property taxes alone for Fulton County.

Part of the idea behind taxes is that local, state and federal governments collect all of it and then redistribute it as they see fit. Allowing richer counties to break off and form their own counties undermines the government’s legitimacy as the sole decision maker in this process. While the federal/state divide is aimed at allowing people to maintain a fair amount of local control over. Are we moving from gated communities to counties?

From Gated Communities to Counties?

In the US, gated communities are mostly located in more affluent areas and thus aren’t primarily for safety but often prestige. However, in South America and Africa, gated communities are almost mini-cities with hospitals, schools, backup power and sanitation and more. This may be understandable in the third world, but on a smaller level, it is present in countries like the United States. Could we one day live in a kind of medieval walled cities? In this author’s city, such gated communities have sprung up all over the outskirts. Yet, as real estate and development continue, many residents of bad areas are being priced out of the blue seam area below, which connects parts of the city’s core.

While this one example from Atlanta is hardly a harbinger of doom, but it would behoove us to pay careful attention to the many forms of the aforementioned trends that are occuring at home and abroad.


COMMENTS / 38 COMMENTS

The entirely predictable crime rise

COVER STORY: “Cities see crime surge as threat to their revival: Louisville, Trenton, N.J., and other metros whose downtowns are booming once again fear nationwide jump in violent crime may hurt prosperity,”Â? by Haya El Nasser, USA Today, 25…

Thomas P.M. Barnett :: Weblog added these pithy words on Jan 26 07 at 12:16 pm

Reading this the first thing I thought of were the ‘burbclaves’ from Neal Stephenson’s Snow Crash.

Arherring added these pithy words on 24 Jan 07 at 2:42 pm

A potentially explosive dispute in the City Too Busy to Hate is taking shape over a proposal to break Fulton County in two and split off Atlanta’s predominantly white, affluent suburbs to the north from some of the metropolitan area’s poorest, black neighborhoods.

Interesting that this is exactly what happened in New Jersey in the 1960s and 1970s, and the state now has more municipalities than Texas, despite the difference in size between the two states. The result that followed was a larger wealth gap between regions, a bigger de facto race gap, higher property taxes, and an explosion in the gap between rich and poor in regards to healthcare, education, property values, taxes, transportation services, and all the rest. Security is probably the more exciting factor to focus on, but its just one of many, many issues that come with this regional stratification of wealth.

Curzon added these pithy words on 24 Jan 07 at 3:04 pm

As I recall, didn’t Kaplan discuss this very thing in An Empire Wilderness? I’ve seen the rise of community developments here in Pittsburgh – they’re not gated, of course, but with the rise of personal security companies, it’s not a stretch to see it happening further down the road….

Scott

Scott added these pithy words on 24 Jan 07 at 4:17 pm

St. Louis and Detroit offer examples of small (geographically) core cities surrounded by afluent suburbs and the effects of that.

In some inner core suburbs of St. Louis, like Clayton and University City, there are gated semi-gated communities without through streets, and limited access (one or two street entrances). These were built pre-WWII when St. Louis was even more racially polarized than now.

There are now some faily affluent, and mostly black suburbs north of St. Louis. St. Louis city itself offers a lot of core-gap examples. St. Louis and Detroit are also similar in that they both have a huge amount of housing stock that is largely vacant. (St. Louis City’s population is approx. 400,000. It should easily be able to house triple that). I have seen whole blocks of buildings demolished for their bricks. It’s a shame because there is really interesting architecture throughout the city. Some areas are revitalizing, but it’s the younger non-children crowd and most people in St. Louis still view living=lawn.

St. Louis and Detroit also share a high murder rate with an interesting twist. The victim is often likely to have just as long a criminal rap sheet as the killer. Outside the worst part of the Gap areas, the city is quite safe. Schools and mismanagement of city funds are a big issue and can literally mean the difference of $100,000 between a stately old home on the St. Louis side of Skinker Boulevard and one on the Clayton side (near Washington University).

elambend added these pithy words on 24 Jan 07 at 4:55 pm

I read many articles about this secession of the “successful” trend. What they all fail to state is that these sucession movements are driven largely by the the belief that the existing government/society has failed to solve the problem that is driving these people to “seceed” in the first place.

For example, this situation in Altanta where the suburbs want to form their own county. There has been 30-40 years of social spending on the poorer parts of Atlanta and, guess what?, these areas are still poor and still require social spending. This suggests that this 30-40 years of social spending has not solved the problem it was supposed to solve and that another 30-40 of the same programs are unlikely to solve the problem. Most tax payers I know don’t mind paying the taxes providing the programs being funded actually work. Only a stupid person believes in paying money to something that does not work.

Perhaps the existing city and county governments need to get their act together and come up with something that actually works. Otherwise the tax payers will “secede” and rightly so.

Kurt9 added these pithy words on 24 Jan 07 at 6:51 pm

A question for Kurt9; what will secession accomplish for Milton County that staying in Fulton County will not? They’ll still be driving the same roads as the Fultonites, depending on them for much of their labor, and vulnerable to crime committed by them.

Michael added these pithy words on 24 Jan 07 at 7:08 pm

This is a great post, although I take issue with your claim that “race issues are worse in the south.” I grew up in the south, and I find race issues to be MUCH worse in the big northern cities. The south is slightly ashamed of its racism and tries to keep it hidden; the north has no shame whatsoever.

Joe added these pithy words on 24 Jan 07 at 7:20 pm

Michael,

They will be able to lower their tax burden. I am not familiar with the area in question, but the common thread of the secession movements within the U.S. since the the turn of the century has been centered around two issue; 1) high taxes and 2) corruption by officials in charge of a massive political entity. Two examples are Killington, Vermont and Los Angeles, California. None of these movement have been very successful, but the recent uptick in secession might be interpreted as the beginning of a trend.

Regards,
TDL

TDL added these pithy words on 24 Jan 07 at 7:26 pm

Finally something I know something about! The Milton secession movement has been going on for about a decade.

To answer Michael’s question; the two big issues are MARTA (the public transit system) and Grady Hospital (The county owned hospital that serves the indigent). Both of them are huge money losers for the country and are rarely used by residents of North Fulton.

There is a major disconnect between South Fulton and North Fulton, i.e. the residents of South Fulton seldom go North, and the residents of North Fulton seldom go South.

Steve added these pithy words on 24 Jan 07 at 7:59 pm

Joe: Perhaps, I grew up in the South as well, and I hope you’ll forgive me for perhaps simplifying a complex situation. I still believe race relations are worse in the South, but not due to racism per se.

The reason is that when one looks at a map of the US and its racial make up, it’s no surprise that the majority of blacks still live in the South. In my hometown, they comprise about 55 to 60%.

Needless to say, the problem is that because the blacks were oppressed and treated bad for so long, they are far far behind the whites economically, educationally and culturally. This means that the real problems are not racial, but largely those mentioned above due to their having a very very late start equality wise.

Thus, the problems are indeed worse in the South numerically speaking.

Chirol added these pithy words on 24 Jan 07 at 8:21 pm

The soon-to-be Milton County residents are not so much looking for lower taxes, but for their tax dollars to be spend in thier own community. It is no secret that the suburban taxes are used on programs that do no benefit the suburbs (Grady, MARTA, Hartsfield-Jackson-Dooley-Stipe Airport). The entire soon-to-be Milton has formed 5 cities as of Dec 1 2006 and they are ready to fight for independence. There has even been talk of a promise to support the programs that will suffer for a set number of years after the new county is formed. Also, look at the makeup of the county. It is two counties with a land bridge. In fact these used to be two counties (and the other one was called Milton) and should have nothing to do with each other. Business is moving out into the suburbs as well. I know very few suburbanites who still work inside of the perrimeter of I-285

jungleland added these pithy words on 24 Jan 07 at 8:38 pm

One thing that hasn’t been mentioned thus far is that benign neglect (pretty much the situation in North Fulton) might be the best option. When Roswell (a newly formed city in North Fulton) incorporated (there by severing services from Fulton County) they raised taxes slightly, installed traffic cameras and elected people who had twenty years of pent up political agendas. I’m not sure secession would result in anything better happening in Milton.

It would be more representative of the residents, but I’m not convinced that anything would improve.

Steve added these pithy words on 24 Jan 07 at 9:00 pm

The real question is, while their tax dollars may be better spent, crime and social trouble will likely increase as the funding for the programs discussed decreases.

To bring back Barnett, we need to connect these areas, not try to firewall ourselves off from them.

Chirol added these pithy words on 24 Jan 07 at 9:11 pm

I don’t think it’s clear that crime and social trouble would increase with a decrease in program funding. Atlanta is a notoriously corrupt and poorly run city (thought it seems to have gotten better under the current mayor, Shirley Franklin) and Fulton County is pretty much the same. The people hurt would likely be the political patrons of the current system.

Steve added these pithy words on 24 Jan 07 at 9:22 pm

This isn’t exactly on target, but it is an interesting example of another US non-functioning gap (gap by choice) which probably won’t get much attention outside of my neck of the woods – Arizona. The law’s take, ‘forced disincorporation’, is pretty dramatic.
http://kvoa.com/Global/story.asp?S=5976022&nav=HMO6 and http://www.ksl.com/?nid=148&sid=825996 for details.
For a fascinating read giving background (indeed, way back) check out Jon Krakauer’s Under the Banner of Heaven.

Isaac added these pithy words on 24 Jan 07 at 10:57 pm

One of the greatest inventions of the human race is the wall. Not only does it serve a practical purpose but it makes a very loud political/social statement. A group of Chinese figured that out a long time ago. I like walls. Walls are good. We need more walls.

Jason W added these pithy words on 25 Jan 07 at 12:00 am

Convincing the folks of North Fulton to remain connected to the Southern part is a tough sale. As has been stated, many work and shop exclusively in the former Milton County, venturing downtown for the occasional football game and not much else. Things have definitely improved in Atlanta since mayor Franklin took office, but a lot of the new developments downtown have been for Atlantan consumption only (with the exception of the aquarium). The consensus I hear is that there is a disconnection between suburban Fulton and urban Fulton, with the suburbanites feeling like their taxes are going to some distant cause. I agree that a place like Roswell, where the average household income is well above the national average, can shoulder some of the burden for Atlanta, but very few people are so altruistic. So, this trend toward fragmentation will most likely continue unless we see places like Atlanta get their act together. I don’t think anything short of a NYC style revitalization of Atlanta will stop suburban Fulton county from clamoring for independence. Ironically, Milton county was absorbed into Fulton county because it had gone bankrupt during the Depression. So, who knows, maybe a new Milton county would buy back Fulton county in the future?

ramapajama added these pithy words on 25 Jan 07 at 12:05 am

I dunno if “connectivity” is the answer here. These areas ARE connected. The problem is that outsiders (whether individuals or corporations) don’t want to go near them.

And as you briefly mentioned above, even if you somehow pour in money to force development in these marginalized areas, you don’t get rid of the marginalized people: they just move somewhere else.

The problem is cultural, not economic. You have to do something about kids wanting to be pimps, drug dealers and thieves. This isn’t like China, where sort-of-halfway-honest entrepreneurship is widespread.

Joe added these pithy words on 25 Jan 07 at 1:31 am

The secessionists probably, reasonably, figure that if they pull out, the remnant will still be a money sinkhole, but they will not be paying it.

What will end up happening is the state government will have to step in, and the pain will be more widely dispersed.

The idea that social spending is going to “fix” these areas is no longer believed by anybody. They are perpetual running sores. So, get the largest unit of government to spread the pain to diffuse it.

How to “close the Gap”? Can’t be done, I don’t think. The kinds of compulsory changes that would be needed would be unacceptable. So it will stay as it is. But maybe someone else sees happy outcomes within our grasp that I do not see. It would be nice if that were so.

Lexington Green added these pithy words on 25 Jan 07 at 6:01 am

One of the criticisms of Thomas P. M. Barnett’s ideas of “connectivity” and “closing the gap” is that is hasn’t worked that well here in the US.

Chief Wiggum added these pithy words on 25 Jan 07 at 1:38 pm

Another way of looking at gated (and walled) communities like this is as the poor region’s equivalent of a prison. In wealthy and affluent regions, the rich lock the poor in. In regions where the sheer scale poverty and its associated problems makes this impractical, they lock them out. In the US things are often not that severe yet, so these inside-out prisons are often minimum security; in the Third World, barbed wire and armed guards are not uncommon.

Dave On Fire added these pithy words on 25 Jan 07 at 3:47 pm

It is absolutely cultural (and that ’s not code for “racial” either). THe suburbs are mostly conservative, family-focused and are not in the city for good reason…they don’t like the urban lifestyle. South Fulton county is a place you go to see a sporting event or take out of town guest to the Aquarium and IKEA. But is might as well be Chattanooga.

They just announced a 12,000 seat outdoor concert venue in Alpharetta (suburbs) so that we dont have to go downtown for concerts

jungleland added these pithy words on 25 Jan 07 at 4:00 pm

To say on the one hand that 40 years of social spending have not improved the situation and on the other the effort has been ruined by corruption means to me that if the original goals were the right ones the first change should be to remove the corruption rather than run away. As others have commented, splitting Fulton in two will not help the underlying problems.

BillSaysThis added these pithy words on 25 Jan 07 at 6:21 pm

“...splitting Fulton in two will not help the underlying problems…”

Depends what you think the underlying problem is. If it is paying a premium for services you never use, you secede and let some larger group of people bear the cost of sustaining the government-funded programs in the poor area. In that case, it not only helps but solves your problem. If the problem is the existence of poor people in a high crime and otherwise unattractive area, that is not a problem or set of problems, it is a condition whose existence does not imply a “solution”.

The “effort” of decades of large-scale social spending has not been ruined by corruption. That is like the old Stalinist idea that the Five Year Plan did not work because of concealed Capitalist “wreckers”. Like the FYPs, the social spending does not accomplish what it purports to do because it can’t, no matter how diligent or well-intentioned the people spending it or operating the programs may be.

What has been accomplshed is simply subsidizing failure, which, like anything which is subsidized, only gets you more of it.

Lexington Green added these pithy words on 25 Jan 07 at 8:47 pm

I’ve been through Atlanta several times but I’m not overly familiar with local politics.

I’m certain race plays at least a part here but I’m wondering if the 29 % paying 42% of the freight even have 29% of the political representation in county government or if they are simply cash cows to be milked? Nothing delegitimizes a government entity faster than taxation without representation. Even corruption is more tolerable.

Are the Fulton County boards elected by district or “at large” ?

mark safranski added these pithy words on 26 Jan 07 at 2:22 am

A good article, and no doubt gated communities will become more common. But comparing US gated communities with medieval walled cities is drawing a long bow.

Medieval walled cities had hinterlands from which they drew food, water, labour and soldiers, and to which they supplied wares (think Machiavelli’s Florence, or the German cities within the Holy Roman Empire). Gated communities, and for that matter outer suburbs, will exist only as long as the wealthy denizens can buy cheap oil, drive to work in the cities in their SUVs, and buy their food in big supermarkets.

Peter
http://kotare.typepad.com/thestrategist

Peter added these pithy words on 26 Jan 07 at 10:33 am

“Gated communities, and for that matter outer suburbs, will exist only as long as the wealthy denizens can buy cheap oil, drive to work in the cities in their SUVs, and buy their food in big supermarkets.”

They won’t be driving to the cities. The commutes will be intra-suburban. The cities are no longer the job generators. Joel Kotkin has been documenting this trend.

The Gap locations within the US are sufficiently localized and small that only communities adjacent to them need to be gated for security. The hinterlands here are relatively secure.

We are in nothing like the situation of the Medieval and Ancient walled cities. Not yet, anyway.

Lexington Green added these pithy words on 26 Jan 07 at 1:26 pm

Very cool post, Chirol. It seems to tie to the long-term political weakness of blacks, which is interesting when contrasted with other minority groups.

Dan tdaxp added these pithy words on 26 Jan 07 at 1:36 pm

My brother-in-law lives in Atlantic Station in Atlanta. I can’t tell where that lies in the map above, but it is an urban redevelopment area that seems to be growing nicely. How does it factor into this discussion?

m.e. added these pithy words on 26 Jan 07 at 3:00 pm

The map is not of ATL but of my hometown as the post notes.

Chirol added these pithy words on 26 Jan 07 at 3:20 pm

Sorry, read too quick and couldn’t tell that Atlanta wasn’t your hometown, but in regards to Atlanta, I would like to know what the commentators with knowledge of the situation have to say about Atlantic Station. Does no one from the north of town come to visit there? Is it having any impact on the rest of the area?

m.e. added these pithy words on 26 Jan 07 at 3:56 pm

I’ll play the local expert.

To answer your question – Yes, people do come in from other parts of town and it is having an impact on the area. However, I doubt that many people from the would-be secessionist area go there on a regular basis. AS is designed as a live-work-play area, so most of the people who are there live or work nearby.

One thing to note – There are far more than two areas (North and South Fulton) in play in Atlanta. Those are just the only two that share a common government.

Steve added these pithy words on 26 Jan 07 at 4:18 pm

Atlantaic Station is on the Northern Tip of South Fulton. (north of Downtown Atlanta) is it very nice, very expensice and a place to take out of town guests to IKEA.

This is not where families live. This is where 20-somethings with high paying jobs live ($3-400K for a one-bedroom townhouse!). The schools are inner-city. The Atlantic Station dwellers are Liberal, Single, mostly no-children and work Downtown.

Milton County is Families, churches, shopping malls, franchise stores and restaurants, amazing public schools, conservative.

Atlanta traffic is a factor in this as well.

Atlantic Station is 25 miles from my home, in extreme North North Fulton, but it takes nearly a hour to get there due to traffic, and our rush hour is from 6 am – 9 am and 3 pm – 7 pm. During these times, it could take up to two hours to get to Atlantic Station….so we just don’t go.

I go downtown 5-6 times a month (I have friends who live intown). My neighbors go downtown (south Fulton) 5-6 times a YEAR at best.

The Atlantic Station model is moving it’s way North. Plans for this kind of work-shop-play area are being set up in North Fulton’s Roswell, Alpharetta and our exurbs of Forsyth County (North of North Fulton)

It’s not that there is a white flight or a wealth-flight to the suburbs. It’s a lifestyle and cultural thing. In Atlanta, inside the perrimeter (Highway I-285 is our beltline) is one lifestyle and outside of the perimeter is another. South Fulton is inside, North Fulton is outside, simple as that.

jungleland added these pithy words on 26 Jan 07 at 4:22 pm

The problems of the “inner city,” so-called, are really African-American problems. If Charles Murray is correct, they are well-nigh insoluble. I guess we white folks are assuaging our guilt by continuing to fund “social programs” with notorious records of failure. It isn’t like the 1960s, when the Ford Foundation do-gooders had compelling ideas but no track record.

A trillion dollars later, the Ford people are long gone, the money, too. The only thing left are: (1) data that are depressing at best; and (2) the clientele, which has grown larger. Kaplan saw the problems in “An Empire Wilderness.”

Unfortunately neither he, nor anyone I’m aware of, has proffered a credible cure. Chesterton, anyone?

JohnR added these pithy words on 27 Jan 07 at 7:54 pm

Atlanta is a bit of a domestic geographic/political anomaly. The city itself is only 400K+ residents, but the metro area has over 4 million. These 4 million are spread over 5 separate counties. (Or 17 counties, depending on which entity you consult.) Within this mix is Fulton County, which is almost 60 miles long from north to south and bisected in the middle by the city of Atlanta. This diffusion of political power vis-à-vis the population makes it impossible to govern the region with any kind of coherence. (For example, the 5 counties have three separate transit systems between them.)

The original article calling the situation explosive is a pathetic overstatement. As previously mentioned this has been afoot for years. It’s only recently gained traction because of a Republican majority in the state legislature for the first time since Reconstruction. The biggest driving factor in this movement is a desire for better responsiveness from local government. No one serious is under the illusion that simply redrawing and renaming lines on a map will lower crime or make them safer.

Ares added these pithy words on 27 Jan 07 at 8:39 pm

Ares, your comment about the geography of the area brings up a question. What if, instead of splitting Fulton County, they merged it with the surrounding counties, and with the City as well? The city would benefit by getting access to more resources, but would pay for that benefit by having to argue much harder for access to the suburb’s resources (they wouldn’t be in a position to demand anything with only 1/10th of the population and less of the wealth). This gives the suburb dwellers a greater say in how the problems of the city- especially those which affect them- are dealt with. And everyone could benefit from economies of scale and better coordination on services (police, transportation, etc).

Michael added these pithy words on 30 Jan 07 at 11:24 pm

- What happens to the schools built in North Fulton? Can a Milton School System be formed? – Would a Milton School System have to buy existing schools from Fulton County Schools? – If SPLOST III passes will Milton residents continue paying the 1% sales tax to Fulton Schools until it expires in 2012? – What are the boundaries on the southern side of Milton are you including Buckhead? – If Buckhead is included would the schools be purchased from Atlanta Public Schools? – How do you handle the all of the bonds predicated on the existence of Fulton County? Won’t they all need to be restructured? – Will taxes in Milton County be reduced or frozen by statute? – How much will it cost to build Milton jails, courts, sheriff’s office and libraries? – Would county facilities need to be purchased from Fulton County like Sandy Springs paid for Fire Department buildings? – What happens with the contribution to MARTA from what would be Milton. Does it go away? – What happens to the funding for Grady? – Will the referendum to form the county be a countywide Fulton vote?

Davis added these pithy words on 11 Feb 07 at 10:06 pm
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Urban Fragmentation and Gated Counties

Posted on 24 Jan 07 by Chirol. Subscribe to follow comments on this post. Responses are currently closed, but you can trackback from your own site.

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