Space Wars

A Long March-3A carrier rocket　blasts off from Xichang, Sichuan Province, December 8, 2006.

Recently—exactly when is unclear　—China fired a missile into space and destroyed a derelict Chinese weather satellite. The satellite was orbiting 500 miles above the earth, the same approximate orbit as US spy satellites. The result is a cloud of scrap metal in orbit that will pose a threat to spacecraft for hundreds of years to come, and despite calls of protest from the US, Japan, Australia, Korea, and plenty of other countries, China has yet to answer for the test or even acknowledge it took place.

Color me shocked that TIME has perhaps the best analysis:

While Western intelligence agencies have long been aware that the People’s Liberation Army was attempting to develop an anti-satellite system, the successful targeting of a single satellite in high orbit marks a significant milestone. When the Pentagon issued its annual report to Congress on China’s Military Power last summer it stated that “China can currently destroy or disable satellites only by launching a ballistic missile or space-launch vehicle armed with a nuclear weapon.” All that has now changed… It was reported last September that China had “painted” a U.S. satellite using a ground-based laser.

What does this say about institutional separation and checks-and-balances in China? Mike Green, former Bush Asia adviser:

“It shows that the Peoples Liberation Army has considerable leeway — a great deal of influence if not autonomy — to increase their capacity even at considerable diplomatic cost.” …Green notes that there have been occasions in the past when the PLA has appeared to directly breach a diplomatic agreement reached by China’s Foreign Ministry, notably over the passage of Chinese submarines through Japanese home waters. And because U.S. officials fear that one scenario in which a conflict between the U.S. and China over Taiwan could occur involves an independent or rogue action by disgruntled generals, any sign of independent action by the military brass is cause for concern, says Green. In fact, behind the scenes, tensions have already been rising over what U.S. officials say has been a steady build-up of Chinese forces on the coast opposite Taiwan in the last year. Washington has already expressed concern about the build-up to Beijing. The anti-satellite missile test may prompt renewed diplomatic discussion. But it’s not clear what effect such expressions of concern will have on Beijing’s decision-making.

And here’s the honest truth about America’s military: we are highly vulnerable without the high-tech edge. The article also notes that in a recent joint exercise held with the Indian Air Force, less technologically advanced Russian Sukhoi jets defeated American F-15s when the latter were deprived of support from satellite and AWACs systems. America’s military dominance may not be as secure as we thought.