Ethiopian-backed government troops rolled into the Somalia capital Mogadishu on Thursday, seizing the city that has been controlled by rival Islamists since June and opening a new chapter in the history of the anarchic Horn of Africa country. Riding in tanks, armoured personnel carriers and 200 technicals – pickups mounted with machine guns – the troops came in without a fight as the Islamist forces had either fled the capital or rejoined clan militias that once ruled the capital.
Before people say, “Jeez Curzon, you sure got that one wrong,” my previous post was pleading not to think of Somalia as a proto-Taliban Al Qaeda breeding ground and demands that the US back Ethiopia to the hilt in some pseudo religious war. We’ve now see that the hodge-podge Islamists couldn’t hold a fight against a real army. Just like Iraq and Afghanistan, the easy part is over.
In the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa, Prime Minister Meles Zenawi said the mission was 75 per cent complete and all that remained was to rid the country of all “terrorists.” “We are not here to reconstruct Somalia,” Zenawi said. “We will help stabilize Mogadishu. We will not let Mogadishu burn.”
How much stability one of the world’s poorest countries can bring to one of the world’s most chaotic countries is anyone’s guess. Many former UIC fighters have shaved their beards and rejoined clan militias. Warlords who ruled the city before the Islamists took power began setting up roadblocks to regain control. From here the power struggle between Ethiopia, the Transitional Somalian Government, the Warlords, UIC remnants, Puntland and Somaliland regional forces will continue to vex the nation, although worst-case scenarios of Eritrea-Ethiopia proxy war and spreading instability seem to have been avoided. Heck, this could be the Horn of Africa circa late 1990s all over again. Let’s hope for the best.
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COMMENTS / 16 COMMENTS
added these pithy words on Dec 28 06 at 5:58 pmPremature Victory Dance
To many people are already doing the Ethiopian Victory Dance today. If learned anything from the war in Iraq, it should of been to invade is easy, to stabilize, not so much.
‘We are not here to reconstruct Somalia,’ Zenawi said. ‘We …
Live From The FDNF added these pithy words on Dec 30 06 at 9:45 pmTrading Honest Devils For Bloody Vampires
[Washington trades “honest devils” for “bloody vampires”...]
Sniper One added these pithy words on 28 Dec 06 at 5:37 pmI don’t see this as a victory, but as the first round. The Jihadi’s can dig in like ticks. No uniforms, no rules, no ethics.
It ain’t over till the fat lady sings, and I doubt there is an overweight woman (tone deaf or not) anywhere in Africa. As such, I’m not popping the cork on Ethopian Victory Champagne.
If they follow the example of Mohammad (Pork Be Upon Him), Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, the leader of the Islamic Courts, will come out and blame the Ethiopian victory on the people of Somalia not being “Islamic Enough”.
Dan tdaxp added these pithy words on 28 Dec 06 at 5:44 pmThe difference between Ethiopia’s Somalia War and our Iraq War is that Ethiopia
a) identified a hostile regime
b) identified local opponents of the hostile regime
c) smashed the hostile regime
d) gave power to the local opponents of the hostile regimeAmerica’s strategy in Iraq, meanwhile is
a) identify the hostile regime
b) identify the local opponents of the hostile regime
c) smash the hostile regime
d) attempt to smash the local opponents
e) attempt a trust with the remnants of the hostile regime to smash the local opponentsEthiopia’s fighting smart. Our plan is dumb beyond belief.
subadei added these pithy words on 28 Dec 06 at 7:16 pmEthiopia’s being leaned on rather heavily by the AU to pull out of Somalia and resume peacetalks. I should hope the “stabilizing” process will be taken on by the AU with, perhaps, UN oversight.
It’ll be interesting to see if the IUC remnants regroup in, say, Eritrea and take a page from the Talibans book by fomenting a guerilla war from within another countries borders (think Western Pakistan.)
Rommel added these pithy words on 28 Dec 06 at 8:07 pmCurzon,
Actually I remember a previous comment I made about the inability of the Ethiopian army to fight and I was swiftly rebuked, and it appears you were right. I can’t quite find the article on here, but I remember it clearly.
I think a lesson to be learned from this is that thus far, Islamist (or jihadist tending ones anyway) states are much harder to maintain and defend than they are to create. Of course, this is probably conditional on the existence of a global superpower or regional power acting against them.
Dan tdaxp added these pithy words on 28 Dec 06 at 8:11 pm
I think a lesson to be learned from this is that thus far, Islamist (or jihadist tending ones anyway) states are much harder to maintain and defend than they are to create.I think this is a good point.. it certainly fits into the flimsy nature of both Taliban Afghanistan and ICU Somalia.
It also shows what a dead-end this form of Islamism is. Without being able to harness the nature of States, these Islamists will remain the backwater pests they are.
germanicus added these pithy words on 28 Dec 06 at 9:25 pm“Stabilizing’ under AU with UN supervision will have the same effect as stabilizing Iraq under Paul Bremer. If one must make a poor choice, the AU would be a better choice without any involvement by the UN. But the results are likely to be the same.
J.Kende added these pithy words on 28 Dec 06 at 10:48 pmIt’s far from over. (Of course, when is it ever over?). But this round does show what less restrained rules of engagement combined with the benefit of not being under intense media scrutiny can accomplish. How can US forces do the same? I think the answer is clearly “They can’t”. U.S. forces will not have the benefit on near nonexistent media scrutiny. In order to fight the way our nation must, with rules of engagement that allow us to actually inflict significant harm on our enemies, we must fight a full on media war in lockstep with every military action.
Joe added these pithy words on 29 Dec 06 at 3:33 am
In the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa, Prime Minister Meles Zenawi said the mission was 75 per cent complete and all that remained was to rid the country of all “terrorists.”Â?Bush said “Mission Accomplished.” Zenawi said “75 percent complete.” The next guy to do this might actually be honest and say “That was just the foreword to a long, long story.”
Moloch added these pithy words on 29 Dec 06 at 2:03 pm“I think a lesson to be learned from this is that thus far, Islamist (or jihadist tending ones anyway) states are much harder to maintain and defend than they are to create.”
Hmm…lets not all slap ourselves on the back to early, eh? All we’ve learned is that piss poor states trying to field amateur militias with no real loyalty to the state itself…are a walkover. Granted, these are exactly the sort of states that Islamist/Conservative groups are most likely to end up in charge of, but let’s not for a second assume that the weakness is due to either the Islamist nature of the state. The day when someone manages to install a truly islamist system on an functioning state you’ll be facing a very tough nut to crack. Iran may demonstrate that, should anyone be dumb enough to try anything with them, though I do have my doubts how well Khomenism did manage to tap into the states organising potentials. Perhaps Hizb’allah will prove more adept, or whoever takes Saudi Arabia when the house of saud finally collapse under the weight of their own debauchery.
Somalia is a godforsaken chaotic hellhole once more. Rejoice! And, lets face it, no one is sticking around there for a second more than they have to.
TDL added these pithy words on 29 Dec 06 at 5:20 pmWhy exactly was it necessary for Ethiopia to invade Somalia? Outside of the rise of the Islamic Courts in Mogadishu, weren’t the Somalis doing better before the AU, the UN, and the West thought it would be a great idea to install a new government?
Regards,
TDL
Dan tdaxp added these pithy words on 29 Dec 06 at 8:59 pmMoloch,
Why do you think that Islamism is a conservative ideology?
Moloch added these pithy words on 29 Dec 06 at 9:29 pmWell, it’s not exactly liberal, is it? (False dichotomy though that is)
Sorry, I don’t really get the issue – surely if theres one thing Islamism can be defined as, it’s conservative. Radical conservative, perhaps, like Evola and his brand of fascism – a sort of mystical “more conservative than the past ever was” ideology built upon an overiding concern for social cohesion over individual rights and the maintenance, or even (false) recreation, of a historical order. I’m afraid that even if you identify yourself as a conservative, your
sharing a semantic category with Islamism, in the same way the most harmless tofu and sandals socialist has to share a category with Mao.What they’re not, however, is Conservative (note big C, mea culpa in original post) which is a canon of political thought in Anglosphere culture. Hobbes, Burke…(skip a few)...William Lind etc.
Maybe radical-conservative is a better term for islamism (if its not a contradiction in terms) – it covers their methods, which are the former, but also their worldview, which is the latter.
moorethanthis added these pithy words on 29 Dec 06 at 11:15 pm“I think a lesson to be learned from this is that thus far, Islamist (or jihadist tending ones anyway) states are much harder to maintain and defend than they are to create.”Â?
I don’t think Islamism has that much to do with the tactics the UIC use. This seems like a familiar guerilla warfare strategy – seemingly abandon the territory you’re holding, draw the enemy in and carry out attacks as they become more and more bogged down. Either that, or the troops under UIC command will revert back to clan/militia loyalties and Somalia will be back in anarchy.
Dan tdaxp added these pithy words on 30 Dec 06 at 6:15 pmTDL,
Just as the Taliban got wrapped up in Pashtun supremecism, the ICU was sympathetic to claims of their “brothers” (by race) in Ethiopia. So besides building up an ICU Somalia, they wanted to “liberated” Somalis in Ethiopia and other states.
This is a typical path for a revolution—attempting to export it again. It’s a good way of keeping up the fervor. If it works.
