Africa’s World War II?

Map first posted on October 25, 2006.

The Second Congo War from 1998-2003 was the widest interstate war in modern African history. It directly involved nine African nations, two dozen armed groups, killed 3.8 million people, and displaced millions more. The conflict was widely called “Africa’s World War” because it was so widespread and bloody.

Some are now beginning to worry that East Africa may on the verge of a similar conflict sparked by the growing chaos in Somalia. If Congo was “World War I”, Somalia may very well be “World War II.”

The major player in the intervention is Ethiopia, who’s involvement is particularly destabilizing because, in the words of Professor J. Peter Pham:

In many respects, Ethiopia is the worst possible intervener in the Somali situation because of the history between the two peoples… A lot of the support that is engendered for the Islamist movement in Somalia right now is nationalistic support in face of what is perceived to be an Ethiopian invasion.

And Ethiopia’s decades of hostility with Eritrea have in-turn given Eritrea a chance to get back at its larger neighbor using the Somalia forces as a proxy. In the words of Professor Terrance Lyons at George Mason University:

The thing that makes Somalia particularly explosive is the links between Ethiopia and Eritrea and the Ethiopian-Eritrean conflict that is being played out by proxy in Somalia.

Officially, both Addis Ababa and Asmara deny they have combat troops in Somalia, but reports on the ground say otherwise. The situation is worsening, and fast. I made and posted the map above exactly two months ago. In another two months, the situation may have exploded.

(I won’t hesitate to point out that we’ve been on top of this story, with previous posts on Somalia and Ethiopia here, here, here, and particularly here, plus info on Ethiopia-Eritrea relations here and here.)