Coups and Hybrid Regimes

Internal disintegration, separatism, Islamism, regional instability. This is what the Turkish Ministry of Defense sees when it looks out its window, the same that Atatürk saw in the 1920s and that the Ottoman Sultans saw for centuries before him. For the Turks, it seemed that everything and nothing changed after World War I and with recurring military coups since the republic was founded, it would seem the civilian government isn’t always able to fend off Turkey’s historic enemies.

Founded by Turkish soldiers in the wake of the Ottoman empire’s defeat in WWI, the Turkish Republic has always had militaristic tendancies. Many are aware of Turkey’s past coups in 1960, 1971, 1980 and 1997. Yet, they are a bit unlike others we’ve seen around the world. The role of the Turkish military has been spelled out as “the sole protector” of Turkish democracy and also of the “principles of Ataturk.” With that in mind, the Turkish National Security Council plays a different role in Turkish politics than our NSC. Comprised of the Chief of Staff and the four Commanders of the Turkish Armed Forces, it not only develops national security policy but also acts as a semi-official watchdog over the civilian government. Turkish coups, one of Turke’s rather unique characteristics, are usually short and return power to a civilian government. The military’s role is essentially to protect the state both from external and internal enemies, not to run the state.

According to Newsweek,

The hawkish new chief of the General Staff, Gen. Yasar Buyukanit, echoes that theme. In a speech at the opening of the academic year at the Turkish War Academy on Oct. 2, he asked: “Are there not people in Turkey saying that secularism should be redefined? Aren’t those people occupying the highest seats of the state? Isn’t the ideology of Ataturk under attack?” Buyukanit went on to declare that an affirmative answer to any of these questions would confirm that Turkey is threatened with “Islamist fundamentalism.”

Given that the last coup was 9 years ago, history seems to show that as of 1960, a coup has taken place every 12 years or so. With Iraq in chaos, Iran increasingly belligerent and Islamic terrorism threatening not only the West, but Turkey as well, the military will be unlikely to cut politicians much slack as the stakes are too high. And while nobody expects and Islamic revolution like what occured in Iran, an increasingly Islamic Turkey would be expected to turn away from the EU, and therefore the West, and become more problematic than helpful in Mideast relations. The 1980 coup which unseated Adnan Menderes had similar results with post-coup Turkey returning to its Western orientation.

Hybrid Regimes

With Turkey’s EU membership seriously in danger and Islamism threatening the world, conditions may be ripe for a coup, but only time will tell. Ironically, although both the US and EU would condemn any such action (as they have done in the past). The military has done a decent (though of course not mistake-free) job of protecting Atatürk’s legacy and the principles of secular democracy. A system unfathomable to Westerners, however, works rather well in Turkey and may be the best example of a hybrid regime for the developing world. However, this naturally comes with many assumptions.

In my next post, I’ll go into further detail about the threats facing Turkey, its development, and how its unique form of hybrid government has made it the most successful and sustainable in the Muslim world.