The continual development of cheaper and cheaper computers will radically change the world we live in and the more connectivity we give indivduals, the more unstable societies unready for it will become.
Chinese firm develops under 200 dollars computerA Chinese technology company has developed a low cost computer that will be priced under 200 dollars and fitted with a home-grown microprocessor. The new computer, manufactured by the Jiangsu Menglong Science and Technology Co, is being priced at 1,599 yuan (181 dollars), a leading Internet portal, Sina.com said Monday. The computer operates at speeds of 750 megahertz, has a 40 gigabyte hard drive and 256 megabytes of memory, the report said.
Does China really want to connect hundreds of millions of pissed off peasants? A computer (without keyboard, monitor or mouse) for $200 is by far a great thing but the consquences of connecting such groups could be a disaster. Don’t misunderstand, the issue is one of timing. China’s rural poor are already flooding into the developing coastal areas at an almost unmanagable rate. Technology like this could lead to improved organization of protests in the eastern areas and thus a larger threat to domestic stability there and elsewhere. And while it may help empower terrorists in India for example, it may help break the government’s monopoly on information in places like Burma and Central Asia. But no matter what, technology will march on and only the most flexible will survive.
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COMMENTS / 8 COMMENTS
cc added these pithy words on 27 Nov 06 at 10:30 pmIn regard to China’s rural poor, I don’t think this 200 buck computer will make them any more or any less organized. They already have cell phones and cheap as hell internet from the local Chinese web bars. I was working in a rural town in Inner Mongolia with a population of maybe 10 thousand people. There was maybe 10 to 15 web bars.
As for the protests, I don’t think Beijing is at all really threatened by them. Most of them are protesting against the local government, none of them national in scope. In fact the rural folks are really loyal to whoever is in charge in Beijing. Traditionally in China, rural rebellions occur during extreme circumstances, where I am talking about 50% death rates from starvation. During the great leap forward, where 30m died, I don’t think there was much rural agitation against Beijing. It takes alot for the docile Chinese farmer to be “unpatriotic” and rebel against Beijing. Frankly, the only people who can topple the Beijing government is probably from within or from the rich urbanites. This is unlikely.
Jayson added these pithy words on 28 Nov 06 at 12:28 am(Ahem) FYI—reality check on techno-libertarian fantasies:
“China’s controlled internet”Â?:http://www.damianpenny.com/archived/004894.html
David Gelernter’s review of Peter Huber’s Orwell’s Revenge, from the 6/12/95 issue of National Review
(and here. )
They make for some thoughtful reading.
Jing added these pithy words on 28 Nov 06 at 1:57 amThe 181 dollar computer isn’t quite as cheap as it sounds. It is possible to build a windows capable P4 machine for ~200. A willamette P4 with mobo, 256 meg pc2700 sdram, a 40 gig eide hard drive, el cheapo case + 300 watt power supply, and a generic cd/floppy drive will only run you 200 dollars on pricewatch.
Now whats interesting about the Godson chip is that it is a 64 bit RISC processor as compared to a 32 bit x86 ones it would be competing against in the same price range. Best of all, since it’s not an x86 chip, the Godson will likely run Linux. :)
The Godson could probably be manufactured cheaper, but it lacks the economies of scale that intel or even AMD have built up (fab labs, R&D, etc) to actually be cheaper.
Durf added these pithy words on 28 Nov 06 at 2:00 amPerhaps the “home-grown microprocessor” includes the capability to shoot electricity out at the user when he types things like “let’s meet up at noon and torch the village administration building.”
sunbin added these pithy words on 28 Nov 06 at 2:55 am1) many second hand desktop (even laptop) of 2-3 year old cost under $200. the peasant can buy them if they want even today. in this sense i think any talk about $200 laptop/desktop are just stupid. those that provide comprised functionality are idiot and will be commerical failure.
However, as the price continue to drop (Moore’s law) $200 laptop will be in the market sooner or later, with or without such ‘$200’ push.2) following (1), the internet penetration of chinese village are not dependent on such $200 effort. (on top the the fact that one needs also internet connection which is still not cheap to deploy in rural china)
3) with the 200M+ internet users today, with or without the peasant the impact and control problem are the same for the government
James added these pithy words on 28 Nov 06 at 10:25 amWhile it is true that one could build a computer from parts for about $200 or buy a used computer for the same amount, the average consumer is 1) not going to have enough technical knowledge to build their own computer and 2) would probably prefer a “new” machine to a used one. A new computer available at a retailer for less than $200 sounds like a note-worthy achievement to me. How much does net access cost in rural China?
cc added these pithy words on 29 Nov 06 at 1:10 amAt a web bar it costs 1 yuan per hour or about 13 cents. I haven’t heard of any farmer with a personal internet connection.
Interestingly enough I think there is less censorship in the rural areas because the web bars are not regulated as much.
Elizabeth added these pithy words on 02 Dec 06 at 11:19 pm(1) Do these people really have enough electricity and good enough phone lines to get online out there? Somehow, I suspect not.
(2) I second all the people who pointed out that they already have Internet cafes.
(3) I also second all the people who point out that you can easily buy a used laptop or desktop for $200. They have tons. What the Chinese are doing is just allowing people to buy a new one (as James said), and the profits will go within China. You don’t have to rebuild them- you can use them as-is.
(4) They already have control over the Internet, so what do they have to be afraid of? They’re just increasing the net with which to trap people.
I don’t think a $200 computer in China is a big deal.
