As for the suggestion that Berezovsky is behind the murder, that is ofcourse (as any other theory at this point) blind speculation. However, such speculation would not be as unfounded as it may seem. Am I the only one around today who remembers the days when Mr Berezovsky operated? How many people has he dispatched back in the not so distant 90s?

Security analyst Glenmore Trenear-Harvey, who met Litvinenko several times, said the media focus on the Kremlin was “lazy” and bore the hallmarks of a John Le Carre novel. “We have to put this in a historical context,” he is quoted by BBC as saying. “Litvinenko’s last job within the FSB was heading up the anti-corruption unit and he discovered a lot of corruption there and made a lot of enemies within the KGB.” “My own belief, and this is speculation, is that it’s not inconceivable that Anna Politkovskaya in her search for murderers within the Russian bank system discovered the contract killings were these former KGB people. “She was killed and if Litvinenko indeed was privy to her investigations then it could well be that they will emerge as his killers.” Although the sophisticated nature of the poison suggested it could have come from the state, there was no motive, he said.

1) Moscow did it (the victim’s own theory, also the one held out by his friends)
2) Rogue FSB elements (also damaging to Putin’s government, suggesting a lack of control; but it explains the lurid nature of the death better)
3) Berezovsky is responsible (the Kremlin’s favorite theory… if there is a Trotsky analogue nowadays, it’s Berezovsky. But the theory seems too weird).
4) Suicide, or “martyrdom” (I have trouble believing that one. To knowingly ingest plutonium? But the police are at least looking at that scenario as an alternative, according to the paper).
http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/crime/article2016152.ece .

We’ll see what the investigation leads to (this will be an interesting test for CCTV). If you made me guess, I would guess scenario 2. The Russian public will be more inclined to believe the Berezovsky theory, not simply due to restrictions on press freedom, but becuase he is percieved as such a slimeball by the Russian public (with reason). In any case, the affair is not good for Putin. The regime has made itself look suspicious in the way it has evolved over the last 6 years, so they can’t really blame anyone for the way they look right now but themselves. And ultimately, culture is stronger than ideology. Russia’s own history (which Curzon has pointed out) has many episodes of exile and assassination of “traitors”, whether under the Tsars, Bolsheviks, or the post-Soviet era.