“The Atlantic”:http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200611/iraqi-refugees takes a look at the flow of refugees out of Iraq in an attempt to forecast possible future Middle East flashpoints. They put together a “brilliant map”:http://www.theatlantic.com/images/issues/200611/worldnumbers.pdf with estimates of people moving over what border, and what it means for each of Iraq’s neighbours.
The numbers:
* Jordan *700,000*
* Syria *450,000*
* Iran *54,000*
* Lebanon *20,000 ~ 40,000*
* Kuwait *10,000 ~ 13,000*
* Saudi Arabia *Unknown*
* Turkey *Unknown*
The follow up question is: Who is going to be sent to Syria to clean up the mess? The US? NATO?
About Younghusband
Sir Francis Edward Younghusband (1863-1942) was a British explorer, army officer, military-political officer, and foreign correspondent born in India who led expeditions into Manchuria, Kashgar, and
Tibet. He three times tried and failed to scale Mt. Everest and journeyed from China to India, crossing the Gobi desert and the Mustagh Pass (alt. c.19,000 ft/5,791 m) of the Karakoram mountain range in modern day Pakistan. Convinced of Russian designs on British interests in India, Younghusband proactively engaged in the nineteenth century spying and conflict over Central Asia between the British and the Russians known as the Great Game.
"Younghusband" is a Canadian who has spent a number of years bouncing back and forth between his home country and Japan. Fluent in Japanese and English with experience in numerous other languages from Spanish to Georgian, Younghusband has travelled throughout Asia. He graduated with an MA from the War Studies Department at the
Royal Military College of Canada, where he focussed on the Japanese oil industry and energy security issues. He has recently returned to Canada from Japan, and is working in the technology sector.
NATO won’t go to Syria unless it is in a peacekeeping role afterwords like they are attempting in Afghanistan. They don’t have the ability to assist in a major invasion like Syria would require. Only the US can topple Assad, but I doubt they even attempt it in the next two years. After the 2008 elections maybe (depending on who wins), but not before.
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As Martha Stewart might say…
The collapse of another half-implemented English imperialist state is a good thing.
50 years on and ticking… diplomacy has failed. The use of force – also didn’t solve the problem.
Here’s a new proposal how to end the war in the Middle East. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OTRRQnLmiJc)