Saddam Hussein has been sentenced to death by hanging. Of course this will be followed by an appeals process that has no time limits, but I think Blake/praktike has an interesting point in that we should be watching the reaction of the Sunni Arab community.
In related news, more was released about the 1999 wargame “Desert Crossing” ( wot wot! to MutantFrog) which concluded that 400,000 troops would be needed to keep the peace in a post-invasion scenario. This isn’t new, and I totally agree with Tom Barnett here: the invasion would need relatively few troops, but the war to win the peace would need much much more. Rumsfeld was right for one part, but totally wrong on the second. But, the interesting part of these new revelations is that the war game actually went a step further in its conclusions that 400,000 troops might not even be enough to stabilize Iraq. Blake thinks is profound, and I do to to some degree.
The truth is that wargames conclude with all sorts of doubts like this all the time. This kind of “if only/coulda/shoulda/woulda” is profound only in hindsight. But the point remains that this article hilights the contention between the “military, diplomatic and intelligence participants” of the wargame and Rumsfeld, further evidence of his ignoring the experts. Needless to say, this has been pointed out by everybody, hence the calls for him to step down from every corner including the Army itself. I agree.
UPDATE: Some initial reactions to the news of Saddam’s sentence:
Critics accused U.S. President George W. Bush of deliberately arranging the timing of the sentence, handed down two days before pivotal midterm elections in which Democrats are fighting to regain control of the U.S. Congress.“The hanging of Saddam Hussein will turn to hell for the Americans,” said Vitaya Wisethrat, a respected Muslim cleric in Thailand, where a bloody Islamic insurgency is raging in the country’s south.
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COMMENTS / 16 COMMENTS
RichL added these pithy words on 05 Nov 06 at 10:45 pmOnce Saddam is executed, Bush 43 will have exacted his revenge for the attempt on Bush 41’s life by Saddam.
Once this is done, then maybe he’ll think it’s OK to leave Iraq?
Mihnea added these pithy words on 06 Nov 06 at 12:10 amwhat RichL said reminds me of a Simpons episode where homer is president.. anyway, it’s interesting that this ruling should come at a time so close to the midterm elections.
i wanna see a huge-profile case like saddam’s where the indicted person is declared innocent. really. it’s like.. what, did you expect him to go free? despite the huge political and social weight this trial has, briging closure to milions of people who lived oppressed for so many years, i think he’s used too much as an osama-stand-in by the US media. and that’s not right. the only people who will benefit from his death are the iraqis, not some republican congressman who wants to get re-elected.
CaptBBQ added these pithy words on 06 Nov 06 at 12:23 amSo its not enough for people to blame Bush for every red traffic light they hit on the way to work, these same people think every green traffic light is a conspiracy to win them over at election time. Stuff happens, all the time. When it happens after an election, theres just no conspiracy to be made of it.
Another example is when 42% of Americans suspected the fall in oil price was done by Bush. Despite betraying the fact that a vast percentage of Americans don’t grasp reality, it betrays arrogance too.
Mihnea added these pithy words on 06 Nov 06 at 12:31 amProper research would probably point out that it was time for the sentence to be made anyway. But at the same time I can’t possibly imagine this being just a coincidence, not when Bush is campaigning for the Reps with the same and Iraq is such a big issue in these elections. I’d say that not believing this to be a suprising coincidence, at least, is more naive than thinking otherwise. Let’s not turn this into a love/hate Bush thing.
Mike added these pithy words on 06 Nov 06 at 12:34 am“Once this is done, then maybe he’ll think it’s OK to leave Iraq?”
That assumes the great leap of faith that we were in Iraq in the first place soley to avenge an attempted hit on a president. As far as I can tell there is plenty of work left to be done in Iraq.
Mutantfrog added these pithy words on 06 Nov 06 at 4:09 amMihnea: Did you notice that one of Saddam’s co-defendants actually WAS acquitted for lack of evidence?
staypuftman added these pithy words on 06 Nov 06 at 5:49 amIsnt it widely known at this point that Rumsfeld has tried to step down only to have Bush not accept his resignation?
http://edition.cnn.com/2005/ALLPOLITICS/02/03/rumsfeld.resign/
I think Richard Pearle’s latest remarks in Vanity Fare are worth posting to the end of this story as well…
Pearle on Iraq-
“Huge mistakes were made, and I want to be very clear on this: They were not made by neoconservatives, who had almost no voice in what happened, and certainly almost no voice in what happened after the downfall of the regime in Baghdad. I’m getting damn tired of being described as an architect of the war. I was in favor of bringing down Saddam. Nobody said, ‘Go design the campaign to do that.’ I had no responsibility for that.”http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/features/2006/12/neocons200612
So its not Rumsfeld, its not Bush, and certainly not Pearle. Hard for me to sport an American flag in times like these…
Rommel added these pithy words on 06 Nov 06 at 9:36 amIt is telling that the first comment was the Bush revenge theory.
The people in the United States are becoming almost as bad as the people in Europe when it comes to believing conspiracy theories and constructing one for every event.
The people in Europe are becoming almost as bad as the people in the Middle East. Sadly, Middle Easterners are usually prone to believe conspiracy theories becase in that region, many incredible ones have taken place. While I don’t doubt that a handful have occurred in recent history in the West, the ones that are most popular (every 9/11 one) are usually so elaborate and huge they would require a massive network of informed people that NEVER spilled the beans, despite all the potential gain in exposing such nefarious plots. This is the fundamental flaw of such idiocy. The Bush revenge theory is theoretically possible because only G.W. would need to know the truth but assumes that the president completely lacks a conscience (I know this makes it more convincing to some) and would embark on a huge, lengthy and risky effort in order to avenge a questionable PLOT against his father. A plot mind you, not even a foiled attempt on his life.
However, in the case of the verdict it would be feasible to pull off I suppose. This is HIGHLY unlikely though for at least a couple of reasons
1. A portion of the American people oppose the death penalty. These people are not all Democrat party supporters or liberals.
2. The political capital to be gained from this is neglible – so much so that it would certainly not outweigh the risks (i.e. Iraqis revealing the truth with massive damage to already weak US
image)The fact is, of the reasons people are upset about Iraq, the fact that Hussein hasn’t been executed yet is not even on the list. In fact, that he was toppled and captured is enough (for now) for the Americans this news appeals to. Simply put, it is neutral. For many of us, it was a rare just moment in a usually unjust world and for those rangng from leftists to Baathists to Sunni Salafists it was another reason to distrust, dislike or outright hate the United States.
cold pizza added these pithy words on 06 Nov 06 at 3:21 pmIt is the height of arrogance to assume that ALL events that unfold in other soveriegn nations do so at the behest of the current American administration. One could argue that Saddam’s capture came at the opportune time so that his trial could take place and sentencing pass in time to influence American mid-term elections.
Granted, there are some instances where American influence, trade pressure, intel cooperations and diplomacy do work to further American goals. However, Saddam’s trial had to have had a strictly “hands-off” policy if the verdict would have any legitimacy. I was very impressed with the judges (especially when they had Ramsey Clark escorted out of the courtroom).
GWB’s big problem is he has difficulty reaching outside his goup of advisors. During his initial campaign back in ‘99, he didn’t even have a running mate until late in the campaign when he was able to coax Dick Cheney, a friend of his father, out of retirement. Cheney never really wanted to be veep and he won’t run for Pres once the current admin term is up.
GWB got burned by Powell, a man recommended to him but not one of his poker buddies, and so we see he’s hesitant to put anyone in power that he doesn’t have a close personal relationship with. We saw this trait in the Harriat Myers debacle. He prefers the known quantities of longtime associates.
Rumsfield is another old buddy pulled out of retirement to head up the transformation of the US military. The idea was to go from a bloated Leviathon to a quicker, streamlined lethal force. Rumsfield wasn’t brought in to fight the long war—his focus has always been on transformation (one of the reasons my career field was phased out in the USAF). Transfor the support structure and put the edge on the tippy point of the spear (as Reagan referred to it). Then 9/11 happened and we removed the Taliban from power in Afghanistan.
Armchair generals and 20/20 hindsight make it easy to see what went wrong. The question is what do we do with what we’ve got? Perhaps the Iraqis will be able to pull their act together and get a functioning country once more, or perhaps they’ll go the way of old Yugoslavia and split into component territories. Give ‘em some time, get them connected. Shrink that gap.
In the meantime, we’re going to keep losing troops. The upside is our troops have gotten a lot smarter on learning how to deal with urban insurgencies. As with every major conflict the US has been involved in, the Mid-East wars have proven a boon to tech development and strategic/tactical doctrinal evolution. The case for SysAdmin has never been stronger.
No doubt about it, we live in interesting times. -cp
von Kaufman-Turkestanky added these pithy words on 06 Nov 06 at 6:32 pmIt is an even higher height of arrogance to try to say that it is the height of arrogance to say that ALL events that unfold in sovereign states do so at the behest of the current American administration, when it is not “sovereign states” that are the subject of discussion, but a particular state that just happens to have been invaded at the behest of the current US administration. I would agree with you if we were talking about some trial in Germany or South Korea, or, to be more generous, just about any country that is not Iraq.
That’s not to say that the Iraqis have not at least put in a lot of effort into process. In fact, there are many positive lessons for courts such as the ICTY in the way that this trial was handled.
But using the “height of arrogance” argument to answer Mihnea’s (and a lot of other people’s) concerns (which come about from having been lied to time and time again) is just about the same as pulling out the old “Chewbacca Defense”.
As far as the hindsight part goes, you do know that Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld, et. al. were advocating regime change in Iraq becoming the “aim of American foreign policy” back in 1998, I hope.
http://www.newamericancentury.org/iraqclintonletter.htm .
One of the more reasonable explanations as to why this path was taken that I have found was in Gwynne Dyer’s “Future:Tense” and “Ignorant Armies”. Many readers will not like Gwynne Dyer since they will not appreciate what he has to say. But he is a hard-nosed realist.
In fact, if I were to be as bold and industrious as our friends at CA - Curzon, Chirol and Younghusband, I would start my own blog and name it after one of Gwynne Dyer’s works (I won’t, since I am not as industrious about this as our friends at CA, and it would no longer be orginal – tip of the hat to you!). I say this more to illustrate that Dyer for me is what Kaplan is to our friends at CA, and comparing the two authors would explain the way I can disagree with the CA founders on many points and still agree on others.
For those who are interested, consider looking up those books, as well as his larger work “War” from 1985.
Mihnea added these pithy words on 06 Nov 06 at 8:52 pmi don’t necessarily consider myself lied to.. i just have an opinion which in my mind is educated enough to warrant posting it. and i believe that the sentence was brought forth in coincidental times. simple as that.
Mike added these pithy words on 06 Nov 06 at 8:56 pmvon Kaufman-Turkestanky said:
“But using the “height of arrogance”Â? argument to answer Mihnea’s (and a lot of other people’s) concerns (which come about from having been lied to time and time again) is just about the same as pulling out the old “Chewbacca Defense”Â?.”
What lies exactly?
“As far as the hindsight part goes, you do know that Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld, et. al. were advocating regime change in Iraq becoming the “aim of American foreign policy”Â? back in 1998, I hope.”
So were Al Gore and Bill Clinton and anyone else who recognized that Saddam was a threat. What exactly is your point? Even way back in 1992 many were arguing that the job should have been done right the first time.
von Kaufman-Turkestansky added these pithy words on 06 Nov 06 at 9:29 pmAnd all I am trying to say is that conspiracy theories usually gain credibility when societies lose trust.
Mihnea added these pithy words on 06 Nov 06 at 9:32 pmthat’s nice and true, but i don’t see how it pertains to moi… :)
von Kaufman-Turkestansky added these pithy words on 07 Nov 06 at 7:35 pmMike – the lies used to sell the idea invading Iraq to the US and the rest of the world. I am not going to recount them all here. You have heard this before, and if not, feel free to google a few keywords.
Back in 1992 many were arguing that the cost to the US - in lives and treasure – would have been to topple the regime. The point at that time, and the reason why GWI was a success, was that all of the coalition partners were on side. The transgression was clear – you invade Kuwait, you will be pushed out and punished. There was no need to invent anything or to insinuate connections that did not exist. People around the world were more or less in agreement, because what happened had actually happened. G.H.W.Bush and the people around him at the time seemed to have a better grasp of what they were getting into.
If you want to understand why people might be giving more credence to conspiracy theories than in the past (which has not been established, it’s merely an impression that has been raised in this thread) one place to look is certainly a perception that people cannot take what they are told by officials at face value.
Mihnea – “I’d say that not believing this to be a suprising coincidence, at least, is more naive than thinking otherwise.” If I misinterpreted your tactful way of putting that, my apologies. I retract. The line in the earlier post should now read, “But using the “height of arrogance”Â? argument to answer a lot of people’s concerns …”
