Mapping the Gap, Part 6: Youth Bulge

[Prelude | Part 1 | Part 2 | Part 3 | Part 4 | Part 5]

Historians and political scientists have recognized for decades the correlation between youth and political unrest and revolution. The concept is referred to as the “youth bulge” — the presence of more than twenty percent of young people in the population signals an aggravated possibility of political rebellion and unrest. High rates of youth likely contributed to the Bolshevik Revolution, the Iranian Revolution, and the unrest we see today in the Middle East. The concept specifically equates large percentages of young men with an increased possibility of violence.

How does this fit in with Dr. Barnett’s theory of core v.s. gap? Not surprisingly, the center of the ‘Gap’ has a high concentration of young adults.

From Population Action International.

The youth bulge situation is compounded by a recent report on the global economic situation:

A third of the 1,1-billion young people worldwide between the ages of 15 and 24 are unemployed or have a job bringing less than $2 a day, a report by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) said on Sunday. And as the global population swells, the situation is set to get worse, especially in volatile corners of sub-Saharan Africa, South-East Asia and the Middle East and North Africa, according to the report released in Geneva.

The highest regional unemployment rate among young people was found to be in the Middle East and North Africa, where 25,7% of those between 15 and 24 have no work. Next came Central and Eastern Europe, including countries that emerged from the former Soviet Union like Belarus, Moldova, Ukraine and Russia itself, with 19,9% youth unemployment. In sub-Saharan Africa the rate is 18,1%, followed by Latin America and the Caribbean at 16,6%, and South-East Asia and the Pacific where it is 15,8%, the report said.

More than 20% of employed young people, it found, were “working poor” – or living in a household where the income was less than $1 per head per day, while more than 300-million in work were bringing home just $2 a day or less.

But more importantly, what does this mean for the future, when rich countries have stopped giving birth to children and poor countries see their populations drop?