In a follow-up to my post on this topic two weeks ago comes this article from the BBC:
Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Meles Zenawi says that his country is “technically” at war with Somalia’s Islamic courts. “The jihadist elements within the Islamic Court movement are spoiling for a fight,” he told Reuters news agency.He said they were trying to avoid a “shooting war” but that if Ethiopia was forced to fight it would.
He said the few hundred armed Ethiopian military trainers in Somalia were there to support the beleaguered interim government based in Baidoa.
“We are trying to avoid a shooting war to the maximum extent possible and therefore, as it were, we are looking the other way,” the prime minister continued. “They will have to force us to fight. That can come when and if they physically attack us.”
To show you just how realpolitik the situation is, Eritrea (which was on the verge of getting into its own war with Ethiopia last year) has sent troops to Somalia to reinforce the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC). Other nations are playing a role: Kenya is trying to keep its border secure and Djibouti has offered to host talks between all parties. Uganda has stated it has “no vested interest,” although some reports say they are aiding the Islamists along with Eritrea, while Yemen is aiding the interim government and is generally hostile to the UIC. Which means the map of the region could be seen as such:
Although I must stress that we don’t know exactly what is going on. Some say Yemen is supportive of the Islamists, others say that Saudia Arabia is operatively neutral, and much more.
What of the West’s involvement? The US is siding with Ethiopia, and it shows: the State Department recently issued a report stating that Ethiopia and Kenya have some justification for getting involved, whereas Eritrea’s interest has more to do with “regional adventurism” and the desire to achieve extraneous goals. The US may also be preparing to aid the northern region of Somaliland. Meanwhile, France has pulled special operations troops from Afghanistan to build up in Djibouti, so we can guess what they anticipate (US Special Forces also have a base in Djibouti).
Before you know it, this could be the next major regional African war—just as the conflict in the Congo appears to be at an end.
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COMMENTS / 6 COMMENTS
ComingAnarchy.com » Blog Archive » Africa’s World War II? added these pithy words on Dec 23 06 at 4:30 am[...] Map first posted on October 25, 2006. [...]
Eddie added these pithy words on 25 Oct 06 at 4:46 pmThere seems to be a race for the next major regional African war, with Sudan, Chad & the Central African Republic enjoying their own game of destablization, sponsorin thy neighbor’s domestic opponents and refugee killing.
It all depends on the scope and character of the Ethiopian intervention and the potential violent response of the ICU. We don’t even know, as you point out, what the actual ambitions are of the players involve, and further, who ALL the players are.
Catholicgauze added these pithy words on 25 Oct 06 at 11:52 pmI remember de Blij talking about how Somilia would become a flash point. Guess he was right.
Rommel added these pithy words on 28 Oct 06 at 12:19 amSadly, had we not invaded Iraq the American public might have supported action against the Islamic Courts.
Easily crushing the Islamist forces would have been a far more effective and powerful message to send the world in the War on Terror. Fighting a secular dictatorship was a bad idea if our enemy is truly militant Islam. Besides, there appears to be real connection with al-Qaeda by the Islamic Courts, at the very least a harboring of known terrorists.Does anybody here think Ethiopia has even a fighting chance? I mean technicals are certainly a mere step above horse cavalry but after all Abyssina was soundly defeated by Eritrea. God save the Holy Land of Africa if they choose to engage the jihadi shifta!
Curzon added these pithy words on 28 Oct 06 at 12:30 amEthiopia has far more than a fighting chance. We’re talking about a poorly supplied militia (albeit organized) that controls perhaps half the country. The UIC is strongly opposed from within the country (interim government, Somaliland, Puntland), plus from its neighbors (Ethiopia, Kenya), who are in turn supported by the US and perhaps France. At very least this should contain the UIC.
subadei added these pithy words on 29 Oct 06 at 8:38 pmFrom an article posted today at allafrica.com.
_US calls on Eritrea, Ethiopia not to interfere
It officially backs the fledgling Transitional Federal Government (TFG) in Somalia._Given Ethiopia and Eritreas brotherly love in the past I’m sure both will scamper forth to heed Uncle Sam. Hell, it’s only a border, right?LOL.
This bit is particularly interesting:
_A “confidential report released Thursday,” which The Associated Press (AP) claims to have obtained, reportedly indicates that world body [the UN] is eyeing to construct a clear policy with which it will engage the CIC.
“In order for us to do this, a clear policy of engagement with the CIC must be put in place,” the report said. “The fact is that there is new found stability in Mogadishu, extending to areas that they have begun to control, which has not been seen for many years,” the report said._
That last part almost sounds like validation for the CIC. It’s premature, to be sure, but it seems as though the UN might be leaning toward the “hey, they haven’t had stability since 1991 and now they do” line of thought as they prepare for a momentous amount of virtual non-action.
The article in its entirety can be found here:
