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Curzon
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Curzon

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October 9th, 2006

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I think we can assume it wasn’t Kim Jong-il farting

Yup, it’s official—North Korea tested an underground nuclear device on Monday morning. The priceless quote of the moment is here: “The nuclear test was conducted by 100 percent of our wisdom and technology.”Â? But there’s no plan on how this wisdom will help them eat radioactive rock when the sanctions kick in.

World leaders are condemning Pyongyang, but let’s see how much they mean it. Stay tuned.

Comments to this entry

Dan tdaxp
October 9, 2006
3:34 pm
It's an interesting slap in the face of the Sunshine Policy, and South Korea's craven attempt to appease the North into a political union.

South Korea wants to unify the Korean nation, and is insensitive on the local political conditions or the wellbeing of Koreans. North Korea wants to maintain the Kim Family Regime intact, and is insensitive to national unity or the wellbeing of Koreans.

At least they agree on one thing...
Chris
October 9, 2006
4:24 pm
Let's see if this is managed well by the resident of 1600 and the international community.
Grendel
October 9, 2006
4:43 pm
I'm currently in Korea on a family visit... and since today, the whole trip is no fun at all.

Btw, "Andrew Jackson said the same thing about eating radioactive rock":http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/10/09/breaking-news-n-korea-tests-nuke-report/
alec
October 9, 2006
4:46 pm
The question for the international community (and for the hypotheticals that can be posited here) is 'What happens now?'
nykrindc
October 9, 2006
7:39 pm
Another question is: Can the administration get over its Cold War hangover with China to deal effectively with the DPRK?
Rommel
October 9, 2006
7:56 pm
What are the chances that China actually knew well in advance of what North Korea was planning to really do and made no serious attempts to stop it from happening?
China knows how much this upsets their regional competitors (enemies?) and puts them in a precarious situation with no easy solutions....
The fact of N. Korea's nuclear status seems trivial to me in and of itself - obviously the real question is what do the other players in the region do.
On the surface it seems absurd to think that a nuclear armed Seoul or Tokyo would benefit China, but couldn't it potentially drive a wedge between those states and the US and even end the defense pacts?
Such a loss of influence in East Asia by the US would certainly benefit China, would it not?
sun bin
October 9, 2006
8:27 pm
China knew and was unable to control this freak - same thing happened in july except that china was not even informed.

so this time the dear leader said, "don't complain that i had not told you, i told you 20 minutes ahead of time, that is about the amount the time you need to prepare for an evacuation if radioactive dust got blown over to your side...this is what friendship is for, like the war we dragged you into 56 years ago.....i am lonely, i m lonely"
sun bin
October 9, 2006
8:30 pm
p.s. to rommel,

you must be kidding, not only china, the whole world know well in advance. KJI himself declared to the world a couple years ago anf again a couple weeks ago. :)
Dan tdaxp
October 9, 2006
10:43 pm
Rommel,

I think unlikely, because China dependends more on regional stability than any of her neighbors. South Korea, Japan, and even Russia can survive a recession much, much better than she can.
Rommel
October 9, 2006
11:26 pm
Sun bin,

Ehh, that is not exactly what I meant. The main point of my theory was whether or not China was able to stop Kim - and did not. It was in essence a question of whether China had anything substantial to gain from the test occurring. I think Mr. tdaxp safely blew that theory up before it left the runway.
For what it's worth, there seemed to be a lot of uncertainty up til the last minute as to whether or not N. Korea would or even COULD
carry out such a test. Matt Drudge even went so far as to post a big BACKED DOWN headline (taunt?) until the nuke went off, apparently based on a reassurance by Russia (how can you trust info from a govt that allegedly is in the business of slaying truth-tellers). Drudge, despite his sensationalist tendencies, was not alone in touting the Russian report. Putin must have fallen for Kim's poker face - because the writing was clearly on the wall as you point out.
Curzon
October 9, 2006
11:53 pm
It is highly, highly unlikely that China had the chance to stop the DPRK and didn't. This detonation does China no good whatsoever.
Nitin
October 10, 2006
1:24 am
These test provide further confirmation that:

a) It is impossible to prevent a state from developing and testing nuclear weapons through sanctions, appeasement, accomodation or 'negotiations'.

b) Nuclear weapons provide the surest guarantee against attack by the 'international community'

Bad news both ways. But these tests hardly change the fundamental problem with North Korea: we practically knew he had nukes (from Pakistan), we knew he has missiles, we know he's dealing shady with either. As Dan put it, it just blows away the wishfulness of international (read South Korean driven) efforts to handle the North. Much depends on what Seoul does now. If it chooses to remain soft-soft then I think the United States and Japan are in a much deeper quagmire...

The broader question is---(how) can we prevent more North Koreas from happening?

a) Negotiating with the demand side is out, so the focus has to be on potential suppliers. The NPT itself is inconsequential. Perhaps there is a need for international action outside the UN/IAEA auspices to punish proliferation. But what if the proliferators are China or Russia? If they proliferate with plausible deniability, then enforcement is easier. We don't have to finger the culprits, we just need to cut off the supplies.

b) As to tackle rogue nuclear states---here's some way out-of-the-box thinking---perhaps there is a need for a guaranteed international second strike threat.
yeolchae
October 10, 2006
9:13 am
The fart imagery is spreading:

http://yeolchae.wordpress.com/2006/10/10/good-cartoon-on-bushkim-jong-il/
Brian
October 11, 2006
1:39 am
"Kaplan on the NK situation.":http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=6241924
kb
October 12, 2006
1:28 am
Rather than hypocritically attempting to impose rules on small, weak, hungry countries, rules which those with the most weapons, which have done by far the most tests, who have refused to reduce their own WMD over and over, etc....why don't the power follow the rules for a change? The reason anyone wants the toys in the first place is because other little boys have the toys. Well, do what most parents, teachers, etc...do in similar circumstances, take the toys away. Wait! This has already been suggested on many occasions, but a few of the boys refuse to do it. They seem to think that they don't have to play. It's as if the parent said that no one was to play with the toys, but the bigger children said that they agreed, and that they'd make sure the rule was enforced. Sorry, but there are already institutions which are to prevent this "method" from taking place. However, the bigger children have told the parents to get lost claiming that they don't have to do what they don't want to do. The parents are looked upon with distrust a suspicion, as often happen with juveniles. The parents need to start enforcing the rules. NO WMD allowed is first. And those who cynically believe that this isn't "realist" do little more than to perpetuate the ideology which has led to the mess in the first place. It's textbook imperialism, and there's a looooong history of it, the rationalizations which it used, the typical apologetics which follow, etc....I suggest that at least a first step in reducing threats from anywhere is to read a little history of imperialism, and NOT only by it's critics, but by the folks who were proud to have been participating in their quest from god, or whatever nonsense prompts them to such arrogant depths in the first place.kb
Joe
October 12, 2006
2:01 am
I'm still disappointed in this title. It's so un-Victorian.

And anyway, I'm looking on the brighter side of this. The Norks couldn't deliver any of these weapons. Even if they could, the weapons wouldn't do THAT much damage. Even if they did, everyone would bomb the Norks back into a new Stone Age. And even if they didn't, global warming will obliterate everything in a few years anyway.
Nick
October 12, 2006
2:53 pm
No prizes for guessing who the Lefties are blaming.