Future Atlas writes that the ANC monopoly of political power in South Africa, combined with its choice of leaders, means that the country may be on course to become the next Zimbabwe:
This danger is personified in the form of Jacob Zuma, who has been accused of serious corruption and of raping the HIV-positive daughter of a friend. (He said that he had taken care of the risk of AIDS: he took a shower afterwards.)He is nonetheless considered one of the leading contenders to become the head of the ANC party and thus the next president.
If this occurs, South Africa will be at heightened risk of taking Zimbabwe’s path, and self-destructing due to the choices of its leaders, at great cost to South Africans and to Africa.
The charge of rape against Zuma came half a year after he was arraigned on corruption charges, which have since been dismissed. The “shower” protection method of AIDS has been roundly criticized by the judge in the case, health experts, AIDS activists, and the public in general. Hopefully he’ll be dumped by the ANC, but he remains highly popular in the provincial, left-wing branch of the party and is indeed a major contender to lead the party.
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COMMENTS / 8 COMMENTS
Dan tdaxp added these pithy words on 08 Oct 06 at 5:12 pmInterestingly, South Africa is the only one of Barnett’s “Core” countries that, quantitatively, belongs in the Gap (or at best the Seam).
Lexington Green added these pithy words on 08 Oct 06 at 10:50 pmRalph Peters’ recent piece on SA:
“If South Africans elect a skilled technocrat as their next president, there will be no stopping the country. If, however, South Africans fall into the old regional trap of voting for a populist demagogue, all of the progress to date could fall apart, leading to internal strife, capital flight and an economic breakdown. One man, Jacob Zuma, a populist firebrand recently acquitted on the charge of raping an HIV-positive family friend, stands an ugly chance of becoming South Africa’s next leader. If he does, one man may destroy not only a country’s hopes, but also a continent’s.”
Was it Montesquieu who said, if an empire is lost in a single battle, it was because it was ready to be lost in a single battle?
Phil Barr added these pithy words on 09 Oct 06 at 5:14 amI refer the readers to an article by Profs Lynn and Vanhanen
“The Intelligence and the Wealth and Poverty of Nations” which was first published in the prestigious UNESCO’s magazine Mankind Quarterly.With Africans National IQ Averages ranging from 59 to 70 they cannot sustain a modern economy even if they inherit it, nor can they reasonably be expected to be able or willing to maintain democratic society. Without foreign aid and help all of sub-Saharan Africa would look like Zimbabwe
abraxas added these pithy words on 10 Oct 06 at 7:00 amSouth Africa is truly a great country, with huge prospects.
Sadly, the current ANC government has buggered it up.
Zuma has also recently just avoided prosecution for corruption, not through any belief in his innocence, but rather because the state messed up the prosecution. He was found to have had a “generally corrupt relationship” with a Mr Shaik, who is currently in prison for corruption.
The sad truth is, the ANC base is largely rural, uneducated people, who understand nothing of good government.
The leaders rule by loyalty, and the people care nothing whether their leaders are moral, only that they are strong.
Thabo Mbeki is too busy trying to establish himself as the saviour of Africa to pay enough attention to the contry, and currently internal strife is rampant, as the various leaders bicker between themselves for crumbs of the cake.
Already a land reform program is being forced through, a la Zim, and crime is still too high. Not to whine (as some accuse others of doing) but the greatest threat to my family and i, is a group of armed men storming my home one evening, killing me, raping my wife and beating my children, for a vcr and a cell phone.
It is Africa, brutal and blunt. While things are going remarkably well for now, unless the blacks themselves wake up to reality, there will be no hope. This is happening in certain quarters, the finance ministry under Trevor Manuel for example, is one area that has thrived, with reality taking precedence over politics.
Politics is the problem, our true apartheid legacy, except much harder to correct than a once every four years vote.
Sembawang Squid added these pithy words on 11 Oct 06 at 6:24 pmThe Boers ought to just segregate themselves now into the Orange Free State or some other suitable enclave before they get eaten alive…
Kurt added these pithy words on 11 Oct 06 at 7:53 pmOne of the “conservative” Boer political parties has already advocated making the Orange Free State a “white homeland”, similiar to the black homelands that were established under apartied. The Boers are not stupid and they consider themselves first and foremost Africans. They are the white tribe of Africa.
Not like the “English” people around Capetown and the like, who are all looking to move to Australia or the U.K.
I have heard that the Boers actually get along better with the backs, on an individual level, than the “English” people do.
Sembawang Squid added these pithy words on 11 Oct 06 at 8:37 pmKurt I think that the Afrikaaners really have no choice but to continue to think of themselves as Africans—they’ve certainly been in that part of the world longer than most of blacks that currently live in Southern Africa (apart from the khoi san, who are really as different ethnically from the Bantu as the Dutchman, but that’s another whole story…). Also, linguistic evolution pretty much rules out a “return” to the Netherlands.
The “English” in SA have any number of escape venues given all the other Commonwealth countries around. The Afrikaaner doesn’t even have the “coffin or the suitcase” option.
Interesting point about relative race relations—similar to the US in a way. The stereotypical “racist cracker” southerner typically got along with blacks on a “man-to-man” level much better than your typical liberal northerner, all a result of living together in proximity for a much longer period.
Kurt added these pithy words on 11 Oct 06 at 9:45 pmVery true. The Afrikaaners came to Southern Africa during the late 1500s or early 1600s because they were fleeing the Inquisition. Their arrival in South Africa does indeed predate that of most of the “black” tribes, a point made to me by a South African in the late 80’s (when I was ignorantly espousing the PC anti-apartied rhetoric at a party).
Because of the long time they have been out of Africa as well as the nature of how they left, the Afrikaaners do not consider themselves to be culturally European. They really “burned their bridges”, psychologically speaking, when they left the Netherlands.
Legally, it is just as easy for them to immigrate to the other commonwealth countries as the “English” can. However, they feel no cultural affinity for the other commonwealth countries. Perhaps they are the recent entreprenuers that are helping to turn around Mozabique’s economy.
I think the Afrikaaner’s are a tough people and they will ride out whatever comes thier way. If things get bad enough, maybe they could come to Shanghai as well, to join the white Russians and Jews already living there. Maybe I will end up there as well.
