Innovations in Terror

This morning I wrote a brief post about the disrupted terror plot in the U.K. I reminded readers of John Robb’s previous post on symbolic terrorism and how it suffers from diminishing returns. Shloky, Coming Anarchy commenter and first rate blogger commented “but the kicker is that Constraints Drive Innovation”. As he’s noted in a previous post of his

As the frequency and intensity of terror attacks increase our efforts to quell terrorism will increase in severity. Theoretically al Qaeda will lose the ability to exploit our societal structure (which may involve losing the freedoms we so proudly display) and this will cause the potential of the current tactics to decrease.

When potential is achieved, or the point of efficiency reached, the innovation cycle will complete. Constraints will drive innovation. al Qaeda will evolve into a GG network and focus on attacking global connectivity.

And innovate they have. While information is naturally somewhat unreliable at such an early state, it seems that the plot involved mixing liquid explosives on board.

Security sources believe liquid explosives would have been carried separately onto flights and then mixed on board to make a lethal concoction. US Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff said the conspiracy was sophisticated, well-advanced and well-planned and “suggestive of an al Qaeda plot”.

He introduced a ban on liquids being carried on to US planes, saying the plotters had been planning to use liquid explosives disguised as drinks along with electronic devices made to look like everyday items.

This however, is only new to the masses. Most people who’ve visited Israel will have had their drinks checked. CT Blog notes that:

Though for some, news of a reported Al-Qaida plot to down multiple commercial airliners with liquid explosives may sound exotic and unusual, in fact, U.S. authorities have been aware of such a threat from Al-Qaida affiliates for over a decade.

In 1995, when U.S. and Philippine security services uncovered a plot by 1993 World Trade Center bomber Ramzi Yousef and his uncle 9/11 mastermind Khalid Sheikh Mohammed to bomb over a dozen U.S. airliners simultaneously over the Pacific Ocean [Operation Bojinka], they quickly moved in and arrested their co-conspirators. One of the detained men, trained commercial pilot Abdel Hakim Murad, described Ramzi Yousef’s plans in detail—including his intention to travel to “France, Egypt, and Algeria after the activities here in the Philippines. The purpose was to train those Muslim brothers thereat, on using a Casio watch as a timing device, chemical mixtures to compound bombs, and to share his expertise in eluding detection on an airport’s x-ray machine, and eventually smuggling [onboard] this liquid chemical bombs

It seems that through continued hard work and innovation, the challenge of creating the necessary chemicals has been overcome. Looks like I’ll have to fly to the U.S. a thirsty man in two weeks which brings us to the real point here. While Robb is correct that symbolic terrorism does suffer from diminishing returns, the real threat is the reaction. Assassinating an Archduke in Sarajevo wasn’t the end of Austria-Hungary. The World Trade Center wasn’t existentially important to the U.S. but it will be the increasing disruptions to modern life that make the difference. In this way, the terrorists are successsful if the attack succeeds and also successful to a lesser extent if it fails because its uncovered. It’s a win-win game.

Let’s hope they continue to aim for symbolic terrorism and not decide that system disruption is the better route and as Shloky notes, that day will come.