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Chirol
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Chirol

Date

August 1st, 2006

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Fighting the Bear

More news trickling out of the Caucasus. Georgia has seemingly turned the tables on the Russians yet again:

Georgia Sets Terms For Monitoring Of Kodori Gorge

August 1, 2006—Georgia struck a defiant note today in Tbilisi’s dispute with Russia over the Kodori Gorge.Defense Minister Irakli Okruashvili says Georgia will accept Russia’s demand for international monitoring of the Kodori Gorge, but only if Russia agrees to an international inspection of its military base in Gudauta in Abkhazia.

[...] Moscow should have closed its Gudauta base under the terms of the OSCE Istanbul Treaty of 1999, an agreement aimed at controlling conventional weapons in Europe. Moscow says it only uses Gudauta for its peacekeeping operation in Abkhazia. Georgia says it is still a fully fledged military base.

Meanwhile, both Abkhazia and now South Ossetia are trying their best to draw Russia into the conflict. The unrecognized president of Abkhazia also has more to add on Georgia’s recent moves into the Kodori gorge:

If large-scale actions begin, I am least of all worried about the Kodori gorge. I rather fear for 210 kilometers of sea border, and for Gali region. These are the directions from which we have expected attack all this time.”Â? Nearly all military officials in Abkhazia say that Georgian troops carried out a special operation in Kodori just to attract Abkhaz army into the mountains, and then attack from the sea. Everyone knows that Georgian army will not pass through the Kodori gorge, because it is too narrow for bringing military equipment through it. So, the main danger coming from Kodori is political.

[...] “So, they are planning to install a large grouping there. They will be able to open a second front in the gorge if the main front is opened in Gali region for example. Thus, we did not send all our forces into the gorge. We have only strengthened our mountain-rifle battalion,”Â? he said.

Nathan has more over at Registan.

Comments to this entry

Kirk H. Sowell
August 2, 2006
2:25 am
The Georgians are like the Poles - they are tired of history repeating itself, they want their freedom, and they are ready to fight for it. To see such a small, weak country stand up to Putin is heartening. Although it should be noted that NATO - esp. the U.S. - has been helping Georgia beef up its armed forces. The only thing in Nathan's post with which I disagree is the assertion that this is poised to move to the front pages - the media is so obsessed with south Lebanon that they have nearly forgotten about Iraq and Afghanistan. But this deserves more attention.

I want to expand on something the Agonist wrote in a previous comment - the resurgence of Russia gets a lot of talk, but based on hard evidence it isn't clear there is much future to this. Right now the Russian economy is riding an energy bubble, and there isn't much non-resourced-based economic growth. The population is collapsing, and Moscow has better relations with Iran, Syria and Hamas than Japan, the EU and the U.S. Putin has been leveraging what he has reasonably well, but without a broader socio-economic resurgence, I don't see any future imperial greatness for Muscovy.

If the Georgians are persistent, their future will be free.
Nathan
August 2, 2006
2:38 am
Kirk, not to pimp my site or anything, but when looking for old posts I'd done on Russia and Georgia, I found this one about Russia's waning influence and self-defeating tactics.

And, in my defense, I did say later on in the post Chirol linked that I think most of the world won't get around to paying attention, though this situation looks like it could quickly force itself onto everyone's radar. Then again, there have been a lot of similarly rapid escalations of tension that have fizzled the past few years.
Kirk H. Sowell
August 2, 2006
1:09 pm
Yes, a good post, Russia needs to get beyond this psychologically, but this is easier said than done. I think that those who run Russian foreign policy are so steeped in history that they will likely try and cling to an old model that is no longer functional. As long as Putin or someone similar is in power, I think that will be the case. The fact that they are still doing military exercises about repelling a tank-led invasion from the West says a lot.

My apologies if I misread your post. I just think that those of us who specialize in certain regions have a tendency to overestimate the liklihood of others finding many breaking news stories significant. I've written posts about happenings in the Arab world that I think are really significant and then nobody at WaPo or NYT gives a damn because it doesn't involve the U.S. or Israel. I'll think that I beat the MSM to the punch on a big story, and then they just ignore it.
ComingAnarchy.com » Blog Archive »
August 3, 2006
8:59 am
[...] This is how things get bad: [...]
ComingAnarchy.com » Blog Archive » Swish for Saakashvili
September 16, 2006
6:58 pm
[...] Saakashvili scores again. Promising to reunite Georgia, he’s successfully pushed Abkhazia and South Ossetia into the international spotlight and (rightfully) portray his country as a victim of Russian meddling and aggression. [...]
ComingAnarchy.com » Blog Archive » Georgia: Little Engine that Can?
October 14, 2006
6:22 pm
[...] John Robb suggests Georgia adopt GG methods to attack Russia’s energy infrastructure which would provide just that. His analysis of Russia’s vulnerability and the ease of attack is spot on, but he misses the bigger picture, namely that Russia would have to know Georgia was behind it but Georgia would have to deny it vehemently. In addition, such an overreaction would surely bring Russian military action with legitimate justification to boot. While provoking what seemed to be an overreaction worked well for Hizballah, that doesn’t translate into a smart move for Tbilisi. Saakashvili’s best move is to keep his conflicts in the spotlight, avoid direct confrontation with Russia and engineer situations which provide cover for forcing the issue and letting Georgia set terms such as the Kodori Gorge Operation and blocking Russia’s admission to the WTO. [...]