Token Withdrawal?

Last week, the Jamestown Foundation discussed the escalating situation between Georgia and Abkhazia

MOSCOW UNLEASHES A MOUNTAIN CHIEFTAIN AGAINST GEORGIA

Russian authorities, having recently co-opted Kodori Gorge chieftain Emzar Kvitsiani, are now unleashing him against Georgia. The Georgian free mass media as well as Russia’s unfree ones are amply disseminating his message. Televised reports show him flanked by armed men in uniform, some of them masked, during interviews and while moving in the gorge.

Indeed, Russia is playing its usual game of divide et impera backing the flavor of the month in order to sow chaos and disunity in Georgia since the have no real influence to wield. What does the move mean?

At the tactical level, the unleashing of Kvitsiani aims to distract Georgia from tackling the Abkhazia and South Ossetia problems, in effect opening “another front”Â? and forcing Tbilisi to deal with this issue at this time. The move dovetails with Russia’s own attempts at military intimidation of Georgia, such as Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov’s hints that ongoing military exercises in Russia’s North Caucasus might involve emergency support for Russian “peacekeeping”Â? troops in Georgia.

Yet, has Moscow’s tactic backfired? Georgian troops have now moved into Abkhazia ostensibly to respond to the threat from the Kodori Valley/Gorge. Yet, while advertised as an “anti-criminal” operation, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili was quick to go on the political offensive and moved the Abkhaz goverment-in-exile back into the region which Tbilsi still controls.

Far from sowing chaos, Russia has lost their bet and provided Georgia a legitimate cover for going on the offensive and has given them a new foothold in the area. Were the operation only to have targeted criminal elements, this may not have passed for news but moving the government-in-exile back in sends a loud and clear message that Georgia isn’t leaving. Today,

Georgia Partially Withdraws Troops From Restive Kodori Gorge

The Georgian government on Saturday pulled out some of its troops from Kodori Gorge, on the edge of the breakaway province of Abkhazia, following an operation to quell a rebel militia, the Associated Press reports. The Russian peacekeepers’ chief said, however, that Georgia retained a sizable force in the area, news reports said.

[...] Imedi television said 100 troops pulled out from the gorge Saturday.However, Maj.-Gen. Sergei Chaban, in charge of the Russian peacekeepers in Abkhazia, said Saturday that Georgia only pulled out about eight percent of its forces from the Kodori Gorge, the Interfax news agency reported.

Could this token withdrawl be meant to let Georgia put a little positive spin on the situation, defuse it for now and wait for their next move? This author suspects the following: Georgia has stationed troops in the middle of enemy territory in extremely difficult terrain or in other words, dispatched a contingent of sitting ducks. They hope to tempt the Abkhaz into open combat providing Tbilsi with the casus belli they need to take Abkhazia by force.

Yet, Georgia’s plan has run into a problem, namely, the lack of the most valuable resource of modern war: international attention. With Lebanon and Israel hogging the headlines, Tbilsi will need to wait until their soon-to-be-created crisis can turn heads. Then with the right amount of smarts and bringmanship, Tbilsi can go on the offensive militarily until the international community steps in.

One thing is certain, the Georgians are smart enough to realize that if they plan to achieve their goals, they have to challenge the status quo or risk losing Abkhazia for good.