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Curzon
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Curzon

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July 24th, 2006

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If war broke out…

Would you fight for your country?

That’s the question that’s been asked of 60 nations of the world by the Dentsu Souken Thinktank. The results might surprise you, or they might not. Japan and Germany are at the bottom of the list, the US and Russia are in the middle, nations facing imminent neighboring threats (South Korea, Israel, India) are pretty high up, but the list is led by China and Vietnam.


(Click for an enlarged image)

My comment: Several readers at this and other blogs have charged that Japan has a small but vocal and growing right-wing that is (pick one or more): (i) infiltrating the government, (ii) swaying public opinion, (iii) seeping into the media, and all of this is just the first step of a new (evil) Japan hostile to its neighbors and ready to recreate the Co-Prosperity Sphere.

You’ll also notice that none of these commenters live in Japan. I am glad to say that there have been signs of a reversal of the national self-loathing, and if this survey was taken in 2006 it would probably show higher rates of people willing to fight for their country. Maybe levels of Germany in 2000.

Just don’t misunderstand the cause. Regardless of the sale figures of a few jingoistic comic books, the biggest cause of any change is a growing sense of anxiety about all of the crazy neighbors than a change in public opinion towards national pride. Or at least that’s how I see it.

Original graphic here.

Comments to this entry

Two Cents
July 24, 2006
12:00 pm
To give credit for the rightward shift of society to a few comic books is laughable. They are more the result of a growing number of people with access to the net who are simply fed up with the mainstream media for trying to paint a black situation white or entirely ignoring some inconvenient events in the name of friendship with our Asian neighbors. (Although in most cases, only two Asian countries are involved.)
Chirol
July 24, 2006
2:40 pm
Interesting fact: In the German constitution it says that no one can be forced to bear arms for the country! (even during war!)
Younghusband
July 24, 2006
2:52 pm
Canada and the US, side by side as usual.

I would love to see a post-911 version of this. At least a 2005 version.
Curzon
July 24, 2006
4:02 pm
Two Cents: Surely three Asian countries!

Is frustration with the media the cause, and if so, should we expect "the Yoshinori Kobayashi Factor":http://www.foxnews.com/oreilly/ to show up on a new "fair and balanced" network sometime soon?
Ken Hagler
July 24, 2006
4:24 pm
The question is too vague--my answer would vary depending on who started the war and where it was being fought.
Two Cents
July 24, 2006
5:12 pm
Curzon,
Well, I think the media have given up trying to plead the case for friendship with the North, as it will just invalidate their legitamacy in the eyes of normal Japanese. They can't go too overboard with their fantasies.

I'm not quite sure what you mean by your second comment, but Kobayashi is not highly praised in cyber space. He's basically regarded as a propaganda tool for whoever seems to have an influence over him at the time. A comment that I found right to the point concering Kobayashi at 2-channel is "He's a good alarm clock. You might need him to wake up, but after that, he's nothing but noise." While he preached about seeing things from an alternative perspective, it seems he can't bear it when people contradict his views.

Besides, the TV networks are never fair and balanced (though they are required to be under Japanese law, a totally stupid law if you ask me). I ony want them to be truthful about their stance, and stop trying to manipulate people. They haven't really changed from pre-war days, only then, they were for war and not against it.
Alexander Augustinius
July 24, 2006
5:35 pm
@ Chirol

I presume the Germans will rely on the French to defend them? It would be interesting to see the pole by state in Germany. I suspect at least the East (and maybe the South) would opine differently than their counterparts in the burgeoning communism of former West Germany.

@ all

The comedy of the assault on Japan is the rampant and senseless nationalism of China and Korea. In conversation with even educated Chinese, there is a sense that military strength and national desire are the only determining factors in policy (as well as an apparently ubiquitous desire for "more food"). The Chinese seem content to nuclearize North Korea under the guise of national autonomy, but the does not extend the logic to Japan for raising a traditional army in the face of risks inherent to the neighborhood.

China's "peaceful rise" has involved war with its western neighbors on a semi-regular basis, occupation of a large part of Turkestan, which it has Han-ized as matter of state policy, the violent occupation of Tibet, and a mania for occupation of Taipei. Aside from the nukey Koreans, China supplies ample reason for the Japanese to fear for their safety and respond accordingly.
alec
July 24, 2006
5:44 pm
In terms of the growing possibility of Japenese rearming, don't underestimate the influence of the US growing attempts to reassert itself in the region through Japan. Though I do not think they are directly pushing for rearmament, I do believe that at least the current administration would like to try to balance out China and North Korea. Especially with Taiwan a looming issue as China grows stronger and the US doesn't want to be caught on it's own in regional politics.
sun bin
July 24, 2006
6:11 pm
i was going to say what Ken Hagler just said.

there are a lot of implicit assumptions taken by the subjects, which are very different for different countries, perhaps influenced by their own modern history.
Curzon
July 24, 2006
6:28 pm
Ken: that's what the "don't know" box is for! (Note that Japan is the highest in that regard).

Two Cents: Beyond the specific credibility of someone like Y. Kobayashi, I guess I'm asking if there is an "alternative" media on the horizon in Japan, i.e. most news programs have not yet adopted the American model of "news as entertainment" and retain the classic post-war model of news. That doesn't mean it's not biased -- the BBC is horrendously biased yet preserves a credible news format -- and I wonder if we'll ever see an opinionated, conservative news channel in Japan.

I'm a Sankei reader...

Alec: Too true.
sun bin
July 24, 2006
6:38 pm
curzon,

i bet if you ask anyone from Gallup, they could tell you the 'don't know' box does not solve the problem ken raised.

but one can only do so much in a survey, without raising the complexity and scaring away the subjects......
sun bin
July 24, 2006
6:53 pm
are you sure the data is from 2000? not a compilation of different 1980, 1985, 1990 data?

"Ã¥Â?”žÃ¥”ºÂ½Ã¥”ºÂ½Ã¦Â°”˜Ã£Â?®æ”žÂ?識㔚'調ãÂ?¹ç”ºÂ¸Ã¤Âº'ãÂ?«æ¯”?較ãÂ?™ã”š”¹Ã£â‚¬Å’且“產Œ価値観調査ã€Â?ãÂ?Å’1981å¹´ãÂ?”¹Ã£”š”°Ã£â‚¬Â?ãÂ?¾ãÂ?Ÿ1990å¹´ãÂ?”¹Ã£”š”°Ã£Â?¯ï¼”¢Ã¥Â¹Â´Ã£Â?”?ãÂ?¨ãÂ?«è¡Œã”šÂ?㔚ŒãÂ?¦ãÂ?”žÃ£”š”¹Ã£â‚¬”šÃ¥Â?”žÃ¥”ºÂ½Ã¦Â¯Å½Ã£Â?«å”¦Â¨Ã¥”ºÂ½Ã£Â?®18歳以上ãÂ?®ç”?·å¥³1,000㔚µãƒ³ãƒ—ル稔¹Ã¥ÂºÂ¦Ã£Â?®å”ºÅ¾Ã¥Â?Žã”š'基本ãÂ?¨ãÂ?—ãÂ?Ÿå€”¹Ã¤ÂºÂºÃ¥Â?˜ä½Â?ãÂ?®æ”žÂ?識調査ãÂ?§ãÂ?”šÃ£”š”¹"
sun bin
July 24, 2006
7:36 pm
ok, here is the source, "world value survey":http://www.worldvaluessurvey.org/services/index.html
different countries has been surveyed each year.

________yes___no___don't know____ no answer

iraq
2004 35.2 ___ 59.4 ___0.6 _______4.8

perhaps losing a war has something to do with the answers?

no? here is a 'control experiment', see how numbers change after losing a (arguably unjust) war?

serbia
1996 71.7 __ 13.4
2001 74.7 __ 23.1
Curzon
July 24, 2006
8:50 pm
SB:

"Ã¥Â?”žÃ¥”ºÂ½Ã¥”ºÂ½Ã¦Â°”˜Ã£Â?®æ”žÂ?識㔚'調ãÂ?¹ç”ºÂ¸Ã¤Âº'ãÂ?«æ¯”?較ãÂ?™ã”š”¹Ã£â‚¬Å’且“產Œ価値観調査ã€Â?ãÂ?Å’1981å¹´ãÂ?”¹Ã£”š”°Ã£â‚¬Â?ãÂ?¾ãÂ?Ÿ1990å¹´ãÂ?”¹Ã£”š”°Ã£Â?¯ï¼”¢Ã¥Â¹Â´Ã£Â?”?ãÂ?¨ãÂ?«è¡Œã”šÂ?㔚ŒãÂ?¦ãÂ?”žÃ£”š”¹Ã£â‚¬”šÃ¥Â?”žÃ¥”ºÂ½Ã¦Â¯Å½Ã£Â?«å”¦Â¨Ã¥”ºÂ½Ã£Â?®18歳以上ãÂ?®ç”?·å¥³1,000㔚µãƒ³ãƒ—ル稔¹Ã¥ÂºÂ¦Ã£Â?®å”ºÅ¾Ã¥Â?Žã”š'基本ãÂ?¨ãÂ?—ãÂ?Ÿå€”¹Ã¤ÂºÂºÃ¥Â?˜ä½Â?ãÂ?®æ”žÂ?識調査ãÂ?§ãÂ?”šÃ£”š”¹"Â?


Rough translation: The "World Values Report", which compares an examination of the consciousness of citizens from countries across the world, was conducted in 1981, and every five years since 1990. The base sample is of approximately 1,000 men and women individuals over the age of 18 in every country surveyed.

As for a control experiment, it's hard to draw any conclusions. Different citizenry will react to different events and wars differently. There are too many organic factors at play to apply real rules.
phil jones
July 24, 2006
9:28 pm
So if the cause of being willing to fight is scary neighbours, who are China's?
Curzon
July 24, 2006
9:39 pm
PJ: I prefer John Robb's label: "Global Nationalism Index.":http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/johnrobb/2006/07/global_national.html
Mutantfrog
July 24, 2006
10:42 pm
"If war broke out" is really much too vague. I think "if your country were invaded" would be a better test, so as to avoid a discussion over the rightness of military adventurism like Vietnam, Iraq etc, and cut right to the main issue at hand. I'm sure that some proportion, however large or small it is, of anti-war protestors would take a different view if it were a question of defending their home and not going halfway around the world for the sake of some poorly defined geopolitical goals.
sun bin
July 25, 2006
2:34 am
@phil,

i think curzon's last paragraph (about control) and mutantfrog already answered your question.

but to be specific, in the case that you really do not know that part of the world, china was invaded by almost all powers before the 1949 revolution (including the US in the boxer's uprising, though in that case the boxers were also responsible for the wars).

after WWII, McArthur threatened to cross the Korean border, Vietnam was was part of the containment scheme. USSR was the biggest threat later, with a few border skirmishes. India invaded in 1962......yes, there is an unhealthy victim sentiment in China, and in its education, but these are the facts that helped fuel the education.

even today, Japan has a much stronger armed force than China, and the Bush govt has been executing a containment strategy.

as for the other countries in the list, you can explain each one if you try to understand the country. eg Vietnam, i guess i do not need to elaborate.

again, this is, of course not the full story. i refer you to mutantfrog's comment above, instead of the simplistic view in our exchange.
Two Cents
July 25, 2006
3:44 am
Curzon,
As I have said in my previous comment, all ground-based TV networks are required by law at the present to be neutral (although in reality they aren't), so it will be difficult for a heavily-opinionated, purely conservative news channel to appear. While the majority of the Japanese are willing to tolerate fanatically liberal junk, some will not allow "dangerous" opinions that might lead Japan into the path of war again. The tide might change if the NORKs continue with their aggresive behavior.

There are satellite TV channels like the Channel Sakura　(http://www.ch-sakura.jp/index.html) which is a strongly opinionated conservative channel mainly along the line of Seiron and Shokun, the most conservative opinion magazines in Japan, but I don't know how much support they have at present. They are virtually non-existent to an average Japanese. Maybe, with the appearance of more channels with the ground-based digital TV system, such demands might be answered.

Although I don't see a conservative network intended for a wide audience appearing anytime soon, there is a program by Kansai Yomiuri network called "Takajin-no-sokomade-itte-iinkai (Takajin's speaking without reservation)," which takes the form of a debate on current affairs between guests. It's mainly an arena for clobbering the sayoku (crazy leftists) and for a program aired on Sunday afternoon, gets incredibly high ratings of 15-20%. It might be an indication that people are fed up with the strictly moral and politically correct stance of the mainstrema media. But it's only aired in the Kansai area, since such vulgar talks will never be allowed in culturally sophisticated Tokyo.

Phil,
Of course it's Japan - the expansionist, imperialistic, and evil-minded country just waiting for the next opportunity to invade China!
At least, that's what they preach to its people, but I believe they are preparing for the ultimate showdown versus the US. China wants to be the boss of Asia, and it can't while the US presence in Asia is at its current level. Since South Korea has basically annoyed the US into possibly reconsidering the alliance, the next step for China will be to try and sever the bond between the US and Japan, which translates into more sexy Chinese agents snaring Japanese politicians (like the late Hashimoto) and increased anti-Japanese lobby activities in the US.
Elizabeth
July 25, 2006
6:31 am
Mutantfrog- hear, hear. That's exactly what I was going to say. I probably wouln't fight anyway because I don't see that as my role or particular talent- in war you always need humanitarians, nurses, etc.- but I would certainly sympathise.

I feel totally different about responding to provocations by invading other countries, and even more so about unprovoked invasions of other countries.
sun bin
July 25, 2006
7:12 am
bq. "China wants to be the boss of Asia, ... the next step for China will be to try and sever the bond between the US and Japan, which translates into more sexy Chinese agents snaring Japanese politicians (like the late Hashimoto) and increased anti-Japanese lobby activities in the US."

LOL, that is the most hilarious conspiracy theory in the month.
Two Cents
July 25, 2006
2:21 pm
Sun bin,
I do not think the China is behind the present anti-US movement in South Korea. However, I think they will see it as a chance to gain more footage in the peninsula. They have presently got Myammer, a country located in a very critical point in the sea route for Japanese oil from the Mideast, under its wings. It's also evident that they want Taiwan. By "boss" and "showdown" I don't mean the the territorial invasion made by Japan in the 20th century, but more like a expansion of their sphere of political influence.
sun bin
July 25, 2006
7:01 pm
@2c

i know it is way off-topic, but, why is a port in myannmar blocking the "japanese oil"? why is myanmar located at a 'very critical point' of the sea route? myanmar is not singapore. has any single japanese oil tanker stopped at a myanmar port for refuel? or ever entered the myanmar water?

the sea is large, the routes are wide, unlike car lanes.
the port in myanmar is, as everybody believes, a hedge for china to get its oil in case malacca is blocked.

yes, if you put yourself into china's shoes, and as you said, it wants to reunite with taiwan, then every move is consistent with a preparation for taking back taiwan, or about creating a credible threat against taiwan moving away toward declaring independence.
Japan Probe
July 26, 2006
10:15 am
[...] A lot of people like to claim that militarism is on the rise again in Japan; that right-wing politicians are trying to rebuild Japan’s military as a force for imperialism in Asia.  While I agree that the Japanese government is becoming more defense-minded, as this survey shows, it will take a gargantuan leap to create the monster that so many journalists like to say is on the horizon. [...]
heirabbit
July 26, 2006
2:37 pm
I think the survey is in fact vague and invalid, but what it suggests seems true. If I had to make up numbers about rabid patriotism for each country, I would probably come up with a list like this. But until there's a valid survey we'll never know what the truth is.
moorethanthis
July 29, 2006
10:29 am
Don't agree with Curzon about "self-loathing". What I saw during my time in Japan was a low-key pride in their country, where political and military aspects were left out of the picture. A more recent "defence consciousness" survey we studied in class asked a more explicit question: "What would you do if your country was invaded?" Even then, 26% of Japanese people put "don't know". Still, with China's regional ambitions and North Korea's missile program, we're going to see a more assertive Japan in future. How it turns out will depend on whether someone like Abe as PM will do this in a divise or consensus-seeking manner.
Curzon
July 29, 2006
12:08 pm
MTT: Japan has an awareness of its nation as a cultural entity, with a unique language and culture, but there is no "national pride." How many times did I hear people say things like, "our national anthem sucks" and "our flag is so ugly."
Ken Hagler
July 29, 2006
8:21 pm
Curzon, that's got nothing to do with national pride or lack thereof. In Japanese culture it's considered polite to put down things associated with yourself and your group while elevating things associated with others and their group.
Younghusband
July 29, 2006
9:04 pm
Ken, I think it goes deeper than that. Plus, when the Japanese look at the Koreans and Chinese, their very patriotic neighbours, they are kind of repulsed. Like "Whoa these guys are crazy!" There is a fear that patriotism could take them back to the 30's.
sun bin
July 30, 2006
6:55 am
"In Japanese culture it's considered polite to put down things associated with yourself and your group while elevating things associated with others and their group."

true.

IMO japanese flag and anthem are both very fine artistic works. even the (allegedly militaristic) naval march is great music.
moorethanthis
July 31, 2006
12:23 am
Curzon: What I was trying to say was, national pride is more to do with the experience of Japan itself than any power-projection scenario. People would always ask me why I came to study Japanese, what I liked about Japan, what my favourite food was, etc etc. To a citizen of a strong power-projecting nation such as the U.S. this may seem a little off, but the same mindset is in place in many European countries. From the same cause as well; the remoteness of war from the public imagination.

To your last sentence; my host family would happily sing "Kimigayo" to me. Regardless of historical baggage, it was a beautiful-sounding song.