The Gravity of Instability

In 2001, the United States invaded Afghanistan to find and destroy al-Qaeda elements working in the country as well as to deny terrorists the use of this failed states as a base to attack the West. In 2003, the United States invaded Iraq for similar and other reasons such as Saddam’s support of terrorism and WMD. Last week, Israel responded to Hizballah aggression by attacking their bases in Lebanon. Before that, they’d done the same in Gaza for the same reasons. Today, it’s Turkey’s turn:

Iraq: Turkey Threatens Military Incursion

PRAGUE, July 21, 2006 (RFERL)—Turkey has said it was taking steps this week to prepare for a cross-border incursion into northern Iraq to hunt down Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) fighters holed up in the Qandil Mountain range. The announcement came following a series of PKK attacks on Turkish troops in recent days that left more than a dozen soldiers dead.

The Turkish General Staff was asked to plan and prepare for a possible cross-border operation following antiterrorism board and ministerial council meetings earlier this week. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan confirmed on July 19 that preparations are under way, telling reporters in Ankara: “Authorized institutions and security forces are proceeding with their work. Whatever step needs to be taken will be taken according to the study.”

All of these states are suffering from what I like to call, the gravity of instability. To borrow from the theory of gravity, a heavy object bends space which creates a gravitational pull towards the object. The simplest way to picture this is placing a bowling ball on a trampoline and imagining it settling in the center and creating an indentation. An object on the far edge of the trampoline would likely not “fall” into the center but the closer one gets, the more likely.

Failed states exert such an influence. In the past, it was only on their neighbors but today it affects the entire world. Israel just happens to be on some of the worst real estate in the world, a gated community so to say in the middle of a hobbesian ghetto. With pressure on all of their borders from Lebanon, Syria, Gaza and the West Bank, the current violence is no surprise. In fact, after dealing with Hizballah, they’ll certainly setup a new buffer zone betwen Lebanon and Northern Israel. They already have the same thing for Syria, your humble author visited the other side of it last year.

The real question is when other nearby states will crack under the pressure like Syria and Jordan. The current situation in the Middle East is dangerously close to creating a domino effect that would cause the region to become an Africa-like black hole that no one could escape from. As the evidence grows that Western intervention across the globe is necessary, the only question is whether it’ll be unilateral or multilateral.

SIDENOTE: For anyone fluent in German, the Tagesschau asserts that German intelligence (the BND) is negotiating for the release of the Israeli soldiers by Hizballah. They’ve done it before.