Indian Inroads in Central Asia

By now, it’s somewhat of a cliche to discuss the new Great Game. We’ve all been reading about the scramble for Central Asia and the Caucasus and know who the two biggest players are at the moment, Russia and the United States. On top of that, we constantly hear about the Chinese. Yet, the most underreported Central Asian news is probably on the Indians who now sport a fully operational air base in Tajikistan. Surprised?

Farkhor Air Base is the only Indian military base situated in a foreign country, at Farkhor/Ayni in Tajikistan. The base is located 80 kilometres (50 miles) south of Dushanbe, the capital of Tajikistan near the Afghanistan border. The agreement between the two countries was signed in 2003 and became operational in late 2004. It stipulates the presence of the Indian Air Force and Indian Army to be permanently stationed there, and ward off any external threat to the country’s security. Details of the composition of the base are not known but it is speculated that Indian military matériel acquired from Central Asia might be stationed there. Almost seventy percent of India’s arms are procured from Russia and former Soviet republics.

That’s from Wikipedia. EurasiaNet has more:

the Indian base is expected to host between 12-14 MiG-29 fighter bombers, according to various reports. India’s intention to open its first base located on foreign soil was first reported in 2002. At that time, some reports claimed, that the Ayni facility was already operational, and, therefore, could have been used for operations against either Islamic militants operating in Central Asia or Pakistan. Indeed, the origins of this base lie in Pakistan’s closure of its air space to India during their crisis of 2001-02, and India’s resolve to get around this restriction for both its commercial and military aircraft, while also gaining an ability to strike in Pakistan’s rear.

EurasiaNet, however, contradicts itself about the base. While listed as Farkhor Air Force Base, it’s located in Ayni (or Aini) about 8 miles SW of Dushanbe. EurasiaNet now reports its further east in a town called Farkhor near the Afghan border which is incorrect. After googling and sorting through satellite imagery, I’ve finally found it. An older EurasiaNet article confirms this as well as the Indian Ministry of Defense in a press release.

So, being India’s first foreign base, is this a move against Pakistan or power projection in Central Asia. The truth seems to be more of the latter than the former. As Indian officials note, the IAF” had more than adequate capability” to defend India against Pakistan. While a base enabling India to potentially attack Pakistan from the rear is surely a nice benefit, the Tajik IAF base is more likely India’s opening move designed to make inroads in Central Asia, enable it to better combat Islamic fundamentalism in the region, be closer to future energy sources and get a head start against China.

Being a bit crowded already in Central Asia, it’s only a matter of time till the Chinese formally enter the game. I highly recommend reading the entire EurasiaNet article though.

While some thought US bases would disappear as soon as Afghanistan was in order, they aren’t likely to go soon. With Russia having coerced its way into the various CIS republics, no one in the region is likely to ask Washington to leave as long as Moscow remains. Now free of Russian bondage, the Stans can go back to doing what they’ve historically done best, playing great powers off against each other.