Foreign Policy’s blog notes the next major change in the Balkans:

The End of Trusteeship?

Bosnia’s international supervisor, Christian Schwarz-Schilling, has announced that his position will self-destruct by mid-2007. After that time, he’ll merely be the EU’s special representative to Bosnia. The post of High Representative was created in late 1995 as part of the Dayton Accords. Very quickly, the High Rep acquired near colonial powers as the West struggled to get Bosnia’s ethnic factions into line. The succession of diplomats who have filled the post have regularly enacted laws that Bosnia’s parliament won’t and fired elected politicians. When I was in Sarajevo late last year, street corner vendors peddled cartoons of a regal High Representative ruling over the country’s squabbling politicians. It appears that era is now ending. Soon, we’ll see how Bosnia’s politicians do without an international hand on the tiller.

One fifth the size of Iraq, Bosina is still hard to call a success. Held together by peacekeepers and International governance, pushing Bosnian politicians out of the nest will be risky business. After Montenegro, what will prevent Serbs in the Republika Srpska from trying to hold their own referendum? Their state within Bosnia comprises 49% of the total land and about 34% of the population in total, however exact numbers are hard to come by. An article FP linked to notes this:

Schwarz-Schilling always said he disliked the wide powers and has used them only once in five months, to amend a law last week. But he has also said he would not hesitate to use them if required, in situations such as a possible Serb Republic attempt to organise a secession referendum.

Calls for the referendum grew after Montenegro’s April vote to end a union with Serbia and could become even louder if Serbia’s U.N. administered province of Kosovo became an independent state, as expected by the end of this year.

As expected, Montenegro has indeed set a potentially dangerous precedent and without neo-colonial administrators there to make the kids play nice, it’s anyone’s guess. As the European Union already secretly regretting letting in one divided state that still seems years away from resolution, they won’t make the same mistake twice. And that doesn’t bode well for Bosnia.

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