Previously, Curzon wrote a series entitled “Buffer States” which explained the sometimes bizarre borders that certain countries have and at times, even the existence of countries which without outside imperial powers, probably wouldn’t exist. One of those states was Thailand. Not long ago, I mapped out my vision of the future of the Balkans. Next came possible alternative borders for Central Asia. Today’s map is one possible future for Oceania.
What is this based on? We’ll start with today and look back. It’s no coincidence that Thailand and the Philippines share Muslim insurgencies in their southern regions. Southern Thailand, previously small Malaysian states, faces constant Muslim unrest sprinkled with occasional bombings. The same goes for the Philippines in Mindanao who faces a similar Muslim insurgency that never quite seems to go away.
The Thai problem stems from previous British border treaties, namely the Burney Treaty of 1826 and the later Anglo-Siamese Treaty of 1909 which are largely responsible for today’s border which cuts off various Malay provinces, giving them to Thailand.
In the Philippines, various Muslims groups of Mindanao have been fighting for independence for the last 500 years against the Spanish, Americans, Japanese and Filipinos. With that in mind, the insurgency isn’t likely to stop any time soon. In fact, with Christian immigration diluting the Muslim majority, Moro groups have turned to international Jihadis for help.
Thus, the above map envisions the following:
- Thailand’s southern provinces revert back to Malaysian control.
- Mindanao and the islands of the Sulu archipelago and Basilan become Indonesian, or in the worst case, independent as a neo Sultanate of Sulu.
Until real substantive changes are made in the two regions, wide ranging autonomy, independence or absorbtion by a neighboring state, the unrest will continue.
I would say Blakanization/fragmentation more likely.
There has been a lot of discontent in East Malaysia (Sabah, Sarawak), that KL robbed them of their oil. In addition, the indigeneous people in Kalimantan are neither Malay nor Muslim. (most of the Malays there are immigrants after independence)
In the other islanders has similar relation with Java “chauvinism”.
So my prediction will be:
1. independence of Sabah, Sarawak,
2. independence of Indonesian Islands
3. secession of Southern Philippines, and southern Thailand.
but (1) is the most likely.
Another point: if you believe in your map, would you also believe Kosovo be integrated into Albania, and Macedonia into Greece? :)
Why does your Caliphate of Indonesia also include East Timor? Also, the Filipino Muslims have a separate culture and language from the Indonesians.
Abandoning islamic portions of the New Core to the Afro-Islamic Gap to shield us from bad connectivity… Interesting
Recalling the main justification for the Bali bombings (Aussie support for East Timor’s independence), it would seem Islamic guerrillas and terror groups intend to reconquer East Timor if they ever got the chance. A nationalistic Indonesian government might pursue the same goal, especially if Australia’s attempts to close the Gap in the South Pacific / SE Asia fail over the next decade or so.
_Greater Indonesia?_ Please. Indonesia can barely keep itself together as it is, with civil wars recently raging in Aceh and Timor. If anything, proper borders would eliminate the borders within islands, such as in eastern Malaysia and New Guinea, and make each island its own state.
And when it comes down to it, there really aren’t many differences between this map and the current map…
i’m curious why you’d consider a revived, independent “sultanate of sulu” the “worst case,” curzon
Are you referring to the author of the post? That would be Chirol.
Curzon: The post is entitled alternative borders, not major changes. Of course the difference in this aren’t as radical as say those in Central Asia. But that doesn’t make them less important or interesting.
As to Indonesia, of course it’s a dysfunctional state and theoretically, every island could split off and become its own country too. That would be a second alternative though it seems unlikely most of them could manage on their own, but perhaps I’m wrong. I’m no expert on Indonesian affairs.
As for borders within the islands, those too (such as Eastern Malaysia) are the result of colonial borders however from what I understand, they don’t cause anywhere near the trouble that the ones I mention do.
Hunter: Because I highly doubt they have the ability to become a stable state. More likely they’d remain mired in poverty and become an outright terrorist haven which would simply force outsiders like Australia, the US, Philippines etc to come right back in.
whoops, very true. apologies
Is an alternative borders map for North America in the works anytime soon?
I wasn’t kidding, guys. It would be interesting to see the result of your creative cartography skills applied to ethnically diverse and complex North America.
Sonagi: I’ve got a number of other regions on my list for htis series, including N. America. I just can’t promise you when I’ll get around to it =) As you perhaps have noticed by my light posting, I’ve been pretty busy the last month or so. So yes I’ve already planned it, but can’t promise when you’ll see it!