Alternative Borders II: Oceania

Previously, Curzon wrote a series entitled “Buffer States” which explained the sometimes bizarre borders that certain countries have and at times, even the existence of countries which without outside imperial powers, probably wouldn’t exist. One of those states was Thailand. Not long ago, I mapped out my vision of the future of the Balkans. Next came possible alternative borders for Central Asia. Today’s map is one possible future for Oceania.

What is this based on? We’ll start with today and look back. It’s no coincidence that Thailand and the Philippines share Muslim insurgencies in their southern regions. Southern Thailand, previously small Malaysian states, faces constant Muslim unrest sprinkled with occasional bombings. The same goes for the Philippines in Mindanao who faces a similar Muslim insurgency that never quite seems to go away.

The Thai problem stems from previous British border treaties, namely the Burney Treaty of 1826 and the later Anglo-Siamese Treaty of 1909 which are largely responsible for today’s border which cuts off various Malay provinces, giving them to Thailand.

In the Philippines, various Muslims groups of Mindanao have been fighting for independence for the last 500 years against the Spanish, Americans, Japanese and Filipinos. With that in mind, the insurgency isn’t likely to stop any time soon. In fact, with Christian immigration diluting the Muslim majority, Moro groups have turned to international Jihadis for help.

Thus, the above map envisions the following:

• Thailand’s southern provinces revert back to Malaysian control.


• Mindanao and the islands of the Sulu archipelago and Basilan become Indonesian, or in the worst case, independent as a neo Sultanate of Sulu.

Until real substantive changes are made in the two regions, wide ranging autonomy, independence or absorbtion by a neighboring state, the unrest will continue.