The Next Taliban

Somalia’s Parliament (in exile in Kenya) elected a president in October 2004. We (correctly) didn’t expect much from that. But I certainly didn’t imagine I’d be reading this headline:

Islamic Militia Seizes Somalia’s Capital

An Islamic militia with alleged links to al-Qaida seized Somalia’s capital Monday after weeks of fighting with U.S.-backed secular warlords, raising fears that the nation could fall under the sway of Osama bin Laden’s terrorist organization. The advance unified the city for the first time in more than a decade and after 15 years of anarchy in this Horn of Africa nation. But it also posed a direct challenge to a fledging U.N.-backed Somali government.

The militia, which has formed an alliance that transcends clan, controls a 65-mile radius around the capital after fighting off a secular alliance of warlords. The Islamic militia is gaining ground just as the U.N.-backed interim government struggles to assert control outside its base in Baidoa, 155 miles from Mogadishu. The prices of weapons soared there Monday as fears grew that the militia could head to Baidoa next. [Ahh, market economics!]

The militia is the first group to consolidate control over all of Mogadishu’s neighborhoods since the last government collapsed in 1991 and warlords took over, dividing this impoverished country of 8 million people into a patchwork of rival fiefdoms.

“It is exactly the same thing that happened with the rise to power of the Taliban” in Afghanistan, he said, adding that the extremists are “using the people’s weariness of violence, rape and civil war” to gain support for a government based on Islamic law.

US officials fear Somalia could become a “terror haven.” The US has apparently been providing aid to the warlords of up to $150,000 a month, although officials refuse to confirm or deny this report. The warlords have either gone seriously soft since 1993, or these new Islamists are some real tough bastards: the warlords fled after suffering just 350 casualties. And to show that a lot has changed since Black Hawk Down, here’s a little introduction to Geopolitics 101:

Many analysts view the violence as a proxy war between the United States and Islamic militants. But many Somalis have backed the Islamic side because of Washington’s perceived support for the warlords, residents say.

Speaking of which, my favorite headline on the topic out right now is from Al Jazeera: ‘The US has failed in Somalia – again’.