Hotspots: East Timor, Afghanistan, and Somalia

I’ve been meaning to write about some hotspots that have shown up in the news this week. In lieu of posts on each borderline civil war, here’s a summary of the chaos now taking over East Timor, Afghanistan, and Somalia.

EAST TIMOR: The Government v.s. Rebel Army Units, allied Police Forces, and Gangs
The West has almost a romantic infatuation with East Timor since its fight for independence from Indonesia. The current rebellion that has divided the country has shown that the country isn’t the paradise many thought it was.

East Timor may be small, but it has tribal divides. Last month, 500 troops rebelled after they were dismissed for protesting over what they said was discrimination against soldiers from the east of the country. (Most of the military leadership comes from the west). A handful of soldiers wouldn’t seem a big deal, but they were joined by machete-weilding gangs and even some regional police bureaus, and the simmering tensions have now turned into a bloody rebellion. Scores have been killed, official residences torched by rioters, and more revenge retaliations seem inevitable. The government is in no position to reassert authority, as the army and police force both have divided loyalties. The authority on the streets are Malaysian and Australian “peacekeeping” troops. The rebels have now fled to the countryside, where most of the population live, and there is no quick fix to this problem. (Australia has said it will not meddle with East Timor’s domestic politics.)

AFGHANISTAN: Karzai and the US v.s. Taliban Remnants
It’s easy to forget, but there are still Taliban in Afghanistan and they are still a threat to the government. These leftovers have recently been stepping up ambushes, and US strikes in retaliation have killed civilians, straining US-Afghan relations. President Karzai has called for an investigation into one recent air strike that left several families dead, while the US military has said militants fired on coalition forces from inside villagers homes and returned fired in self defence. Meanwhile, thousands have fled to avoid the fighting.

SOMALIA: “No idea who is fighting who”
On the geopolitical surface, the current fighting in Somalia looks great for Western interests: Mogadishu’s infamous warlords are fighting the latest threat to their power, none other than Bin Laden-inspired Islamists trying to turn the country into the next Saudi Arabia. Forget Black Hawk Down —the US is actually covertly helping the warlords:

The warlords have ruled Mogadishu for 15 chaotic years, using young gunmen to extract as much revenue as they can from checkpoints, ports and airstrips within their turf. They have struck alliances with business leaders, who pay protection money to enable them to trade with Gulf states.

But Islamic leaders have quietly emerged as a third force, one with huge political, economic and military clout. They have slowly filled a void in anarchic Somalia, creating Islamic schools and courts and providing social services unavailable anywhere else.

Amid the moderate sheiks, however, are hard-liners whom American officials say have formed a small Al Qaeda cell in Mogadishu. To combat the extremists, American intelligence officials struck an alliance with the warlords, who fashioned themselves into a counterterrorism alliance.

On the ground, the situation is truly awful, with major civilian casualties in what can best be described as a feudal society with no modern medicine—wheelbarrows are used as “ambulances.” Street fights between rival militias are resulting in massive civilian casualties, and there is no way for any international help to reach the people.

On a somewhat positive note, Sri Lanka, Nepal and the Solomon Islands all look better than they did last month. We can only hope it’s a trend.