While reading the BBC, I came across a short history they’ve put together featuring maps of the Balkans starting in 1900 through 2003. With Montenegro’s referendum on independence coming up on Sunday, now would be a good time to talk about the future of the region. I recommend checking out the BBC’s short history first if you need a refresher course on how the map of the region has changed over the years.
My map below envisions the following:
1) Bosnia’s collapse or dismemberment and absorption by Serbia and Croatia.*
2) Montenegro’s independence
3) Kosovo’s independence
4) Macedonia’s survival
Note that the yellow lines you see are the current borders which I left to help readers compare my vision with the current situation.
Politically, the solution to many issues will probably be based on some kind of mini-EU agreement similar to what’s being proposed should Montenegro break with Serbia. What does that mean? It means that citizens of each state will have special rights in all the others, a kind of “Citizen formerly known as Yugoslav” identity which allows them to live and work in other states, receive their pension there, use the healthcare system and so forth, like in the European Union.
While there would naturally be certain restrictions, a agreement of this sort would diffuse a number of potential complications that could arise from independence. Slovenia likely wouldn’t be involved, or only marginally, as it is already an EU and NATO member not to mention that it doesn’t suffer from the rest of the region’s afflictions. Thus, while each state remains independent and sovereign, individual citizens won’t be punished for it in a region complex ethnic relations have plagued for so long.
On top of that, an agreement like this between most of the former Yugoslav states will likely be a precursor to EU entry, with organization to organization ties preceeding entry of the group into the EU. This will facilitate better regional integration, stability and prosperity which will help keep the region moving forward, even if EU entry is delayed (a likely prospect for some).
That’s Chirol’s vision for the future of the Balkans. Please share your own in the comments section
*Note: The international community is unlikely to allow a real collapse of Bosnia. Also, my vision works regardless of whether it remains intact as a state or not.
During my short (two week) stay in Macedonia, I certainly didn’t get the feeling it was about to collapse. Because they are defensive against Greece (claims they are illegitimately named), Bulgaria (claims they don’t exist because actually they are Bulgarians), Serbia (annoyed at them for not being Serbian), they have a very strong national identity. I don’t think that in the end the Albanians will want to fight to join Albania, though, because Albania is poorer than Macedonia (by a lot), especially in the areas near Macedonia. Also because they have direct experience with war, which often makes people more pacifist, in my experience.
It depends on how much external interference there is.
Beautiful maps and good post.
So poor Serbia will be left without any coastline?
What’s up with that purple enclave in Macedonia?
That purple spot is an ethnic Albanian enclave in Macedonia, hence the question mark. It’s small enough to cause friction, but not big enough to cause major problems. Don’t forget Macedonia was home to NATO peacekeepers too! They’ve had their own share of problems which have, thank god, largely passed.
I don’t believe Croatia is interested in that much of Bosnia, especially the Muslim-majority areas. I would project a small rump-state centered somewhere around Sarajevo and extending down to Mostar.
Splitting Bosnia between Serbia and Croatia will only lead to another war that will last for who knows how long. If that was the case, the destruction of Bosnia would lead to radicalization of local Muslims who only see Bosnia as their home. I don’t think that US and EU want another Afghanistan in their back yard. Only way peace could be sustained in the region is if Bosnia stays one country with all religious and ethnic groups living side by side.
during my short stay 25 days in Macedonia i was suprised .
Nice peoples ,nice country and one of the most beauty country in Europe(Part Resen-Ohrid-Debarsko-Gostivari)
Must be part of the EU soon but peoples are not organized to advert self in Eu and peoples in EU are not so well informed about Macedonia.
Problems with Greece are ..the Greeks problem only and I do’t like to share with Greece this quazy probelms in EU
Curzon: “So poor Serbia will be left without any coastline?”
Yeah, it’s a bitch, isn’t it?
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