Geography of the Balkans Past and Future

While reading the BBC, I came across a short history they’ve put together featuring maps of the Balkans starting in 1900 through 2003. With Montenegro’s referendum on independence coming up on Sunday, now would be a good time to talk about the future of the region. I recommend checking out the BBC’s short history first if you need a refresher course on how the map of the region has changed over the years.

My map below envisions the following:

1) Bosnia’s collapse or dismemberment and absorption by Serbia and Croatia.*
2) Montenegro’s independence
3) Kosovo’s independence
4) Macedonia’s survival

Note that the yellow lines you see are the current borders which I left to help readers compare my vision with the current situation.

Politically, the solution to many issues will probably be based on some kind of mini-EU agreement similar to what’s being proposed should Montenegro break with Serbia. What does that mean? It means that citizens of each state will have special rights in all the others, a kind of “Citizen formerly known as Yugoslav” identity which allows them to live and work in other states, receive their pension there, use the healthcare system and so forth, like in the European Union.

While there would naturally be certain restrictions, a agreement of this sort would diffuse a number of potential complications that could arise from independence. Slovenia likely wouldn’t be involved, or only marginally, as it is already an EU and NATO member not to mention that it doesn’t suffer from the rest of the region’s afflictions. Thus, while each state remains independent and sovereign, individual citizens won’t be punished for it in a region complex ethnic relations have plagued for so long.

On top of that, an agreement like this between most of the former Yugoslav states will likely be a precursor to EU entry, with organization to organization ties preceeding entry of the group into the EU. This will facilitate better regional integration, stability and prosperity which will help keep the region moving forward, even if EU entry is delayed (a likely prospect for some).

That’s Chirol’s vision for the future of the Balkans. Please share your own in the comments section

*Note: The international community is unlikely to allow a real collapse of Bosnia. Also, my vision works regardless of whether it remains intact as a state or not.