On May 21st, Montenegro will hold a referendum on whether it should end its current union with Serbia. The question voters will answer with Yes/No is:

“Do you want Montenegro to be an independent state with full international recognition?”

The numbers necessary of independence are that at least 55% must vote Yes, and turnout must be over 50% of registered voters. Those details were decided upon in negotiations with the European Union whereas local politicians felt between 25% and 40% should suffice. A poll in January found that 41.4% of Montenegrins support independence whereas 32.3% are against it and 25% are undecided.

Needless to say, the biggest opponent of this entire process is Serbia who’s currently scrambling to rally support for a No vote in Montenegro. Though many reporters and bloggers have noted that this could cause serious instability in the Balkans again, I doubt it. Right next door in Bosnia and in Kosovo are international peacekeeping forces. Even if Serbia wanted to respond militarily, they’d be in a bad strategic position to do so. Secondly, if Montenegro democratically decides that independence is indeed what they want, nothing would do more to shred the last bits of Serbia’s image than to invade a country that simply wants to be free (though they have a lot of experience with that). After Milosovic died, Serbia could finally begin repairing its image which was critically damaged during the Yugoslav Civil War and the Kosovo War. Long having been a pariah on the world stage, everyday Serbs are tired of being international outcasts and are pinning their hopes on EU entry, the chances of which would drop to zero should Serbia decide to use force which is already in danger due to their failure to deliver war criminal Ratko Mladic.

While this referendum is sure to turn a few heads and remind Westerners of continued problems in the Balkans, its very unlikely to cause any serious instability. Even if (or when) Kosovo becomes independent, things aren’t liable to get worse as Serbia is simply out of options and has felt the wrath of the international community before. With Hungary already in the EU and Romania joining next year, the Serbs already have their noses pressed to the glass as Barnett likes to say. This is one case where soft power combined with a few boots on the ground next door will indeed make the world a better place and pave the way for the entire Balkans to peacefully enter Europe and enjoy their long-awaited prosperity.

I’ll be keeping a very close eye on the Balkans for the next few weeks as I believe it’s an important test case for international peacekeeping missions worldwide and especially as an example of what to do with post-colonial Frankensteins, or “artificial” states.

NOTE: Let’s not forget Kosovo.

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