Inevitabilities Not Possibilities

Yesterday, I emailed Dr. Thomas Barnett with the following question as part of his “Ask Tom” idea. He’d written a great deal about Iran and his solution to our current crisis but I was curious as to why he hadn’t addressed the possible consequences. Here was my question

Dear Tom, You continue to make convincing arguments about why America should opt for the soft kill on Iran. You give many supporting details for your argument and note that “Iran is getting the bomb” whether we like it or not. While preferring the soft kill option as you do, my biggest reason to support the hard kill isn’t Iran specific, but rather the greater question of proliferation and regional instability. Your arguments for the soft kill in Iran are spot on, yet the same ones won’t work for Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt who may very well go after the bomb and afterall, that’s the big picture everyone’s worried about, not Iran itself. I’d love to hear your thoughts on that.

Sincerely,
Sir Ignatius Valentine Chirol

Tom responded quickly with the following:

In each instance, I think the fear is overblown. Egypt reaches? Then several billion in US aid every year disappears—just like that. And who does Egypt need to be protected from? Never asked all this time despite Israel having the bomb.

Turkey also a no: kills the EU bid overnight. That’s worth more. Turkey’s been under the US/NATO umbrella for decades and never reached for bomb. Iran won’t be tipping point.

Saudi Arabia will fear most, but already has US military backing. They might reach, but far more likely outcome is they lead regional security regime-building effort that deals with Iranian security issues head on

Iran reaching for bomb will force a lot of security arrangements to occur, because Iran can’t be both isolated and nuclear. These arrangements need to happen anyway. Since hard-kill won’t work, I’m just arguing acceptance of that strategic reality so we start building that CSC-like structure and process now as opposed to later under duress.

Frankly, we need that process desperately now on Iraq alone.

I don’t do possibilities, I prefer to work inevitabilities.Iran reaching for bomb will force a lot of security arrangements to occur, because Iran can’t be both isolated and nuclear. These arrangements need to happen anyway. Since hard-kill won’t work, I’m just arguing acceptance of that strategic reality so we start building that CSC-like structure and process now as opposed to later under duress.

Frankly, we need that process desperately now on Iraq alone.

I don’t do possibilities, I prefer to work inevitabilities..

You can also find it at Tom’s blog.