Trouble in Paradise

The Solomon Islands is usually too small to make big news but managed to get some time in the international press today. As could be expected, it wasn’t the travel section nor was the news good.

Australia Sends Troops to Solomon Islands

HONIARA, Solomon Islands — Scores of Australian troops landed in the Solomon Islands on Wednesday to try to restore peace after rioters angered by the election of an unpopular new prime minister attacked police and laid waste to a neighborhood.

[...] The rioting erupted Tuesday after Snyder Rini was elected prime minister by 50 lawmakers chosen in an April 5 parliamentary election. Rini is seen as having close links with the corruption-tainted administration of his predecessor, Sir Allan Kemakeza. Rini was Kemakeza’s deputy prime minister.

Close links with the previous administration aren’t the only problem, islanders also felt that he is influenced by local Chinese businessmen as well as Taiwan. Like most of South Asia and the South Pacific, Chinese minorities control vastly disproportionate amounts of wealth considering they make up between 1 and 2% of the population. Amy Chua described just this situation in her book World on Fire.

Because dominant minority individuals can grow to control a disproportionately larger influence than individuals in the majority, conflicts often arise between the social dominance of a minority and the demographic dominance of the majority. As the minority often must resort to coercive means to enforce typically non-democratic means of control and policy, this dominance often exaggerates and enflames hostilities between ethnic factions.

According to the CIA Factbook’s latest numbers which don’t mention Chinese under ethnicities, they have to be less than the 1.3% which is “other” or “unspecified.” Additionall, their per capita GDP is about $340 with 75% of the work force engaged in subsistence farming and fishing. Needless to say, without Australian intervention as part of RAMSI (Regional Assistance Mission to the Solomon Islands), violence against ethnic Chinese would continue likely leading to more capital flight and perhaps the few businessmen that live there. The Head Heeb has more:

Exactly how bad things get, and where the Solomons will go from here, depends on two things: what the rioters do and what RAMSI does. The Honiara riots are not to be confused with a “color revolution,” nor are they likely to become one. Although the protesters oppose Rini as prime minister, they don’t have a program or candidate of their own, and there isn’t any unified political force that could turn them into a coherent opposition. Also, unlike other pre-revolutionary situations, there’s nothing beyond racist rumor to suggest that Rini’s election was illegitimate. But while the critical mass to overthrow Rini doesn’t seem to be there, the rioters could easily make the Solomons ungovernable and jeopardize RAMSI’s capacity-building mission.

The other key is RAMSI itself: whether the peacekeepers limit themselves to putting down the riots or whether they attempt to mediate a political settlement. The former is within RAMSI’s mandate, but it will put the regional force in a position of propping up an unpopular government and potentially becoming a focus of local resentment. RAMSI has been immeasurably aided in its state-building mission by the fact that most Solomon Islanders want it there, and if hardcore opposition moves beyond the margins, it might become unable to carry forward. Political mediation, on the other hand, could help restore stability to the government and enhance RAMSI’s local standing – but it would arguably be outside the force’s mandate and would be politically difficult to initiate without an invitation from the government. A pending lawsuit to annul Rini’s election on the basis that constitutional formalities were not followed might provide an opening, but RAMSI, and the governments of Australia and New Zealand, would likely have to take the initiative if they want to broker a solution.

For more check out the Head Heeb’s thorough post of the situation. The Solomon Islands crisis brings two very interesting situations to light, one the backlash against the Chinese as well as the quintessential question of whether RAMSI should stick to policing activities or involve itself in a political settlement. A positive answer to the latter question would set a very interesting precedent for future international interventions abroad.

SIDENOTE: As I mentioned the other day, an obscure hobby of mine is former German colonies. Though geographically part of the Soloman Islands, there exists a string of islands called the North Soloman Islands which belong to Papua New Guinea. Not surprisingly, this oddity is due to the fact that the islands as wel as Papua New Guinea are former German colonies. Nearby names such as the Bismarck Archipeligo and Mount Wilhelm are give-aways. Also interesting is a tiny pidgin language based on German that was spoken there and today has only 100 native speakers left, known as Unserdeutsch, or “Our German.”