Comments on: In the wake of Korean reunification http://cominganarchy.com/2006/04/17/in-the-wake-of-korean-reunification/ Speak Victorian, Think Pagan Thu, 18 Mar 2010 06:13:54 -0700 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 By: Scenarios of Reunification « http://cominganarchy.com/2006/04/17/in-the-wake-of-korean-reunification/comment-page-2/#comment-144448 Scenarios of Reunification « Mon, 23 Oct 2006 21:20:31 +0000 http://www.cominganarchy.com/?p=1776#comment-144448 [...] There is some good discussion about possible reunification scenarios between North and South Korea, currently being debated on a couple of high profile blogs that are worth checking out. It began with Lirelou’s post on Coming Anarchy and that post was picked up on by Robert over at the Marmot’s Hole. I gave my opinion on the topic over at Coming Anarchy that drew some discussion, but I will go ahead and expand on my possible reunification scenario here. [...] [...] There is some good discussion about possible reunification scenarios between North and South Korea, currently being debated on a couple of high profile blogs that are worth checking out. It began with Lirelou’s post on Coming Anarchy and that post was picked up on by Robert over at the Marmot’s Hole. I gave my opinion on the topic over at Coming Anarchy that drew some discussion, but I will go ahead and expand on my possible reunification scenario here. [...]

]]> By: Oh My News’ Own Reunification Theory « http://cominganarchy.com/2006/04/17/in-the-wake-of-korean-reunification/comment-page-2/#comment-144444 Oh My News’ Own Reunification Theory « Mon, 23 Oct 2006 21:08:24 +0000 http://www.cominganarchy.com/?p=1776#comment-144444 [...] With the current interest in Korean reunification theories, which you can read more about here, here, and here; I have decided to repost a reunification theory published last year by the Korean publication Oh My News that I found many reasons to dispute. These disputes are what initially sparked my interest in what would happen if China ever got involved in peacekeeping operations in North Korea. [...] [...] With the current interest in Korean reunification theories, which you can read more about here, here, and here; I have decided to repost a reunification theory published last year by the Korean publication Oh My News that I found many reasons to dispute. These disputes are what initially sparked my interest in what would happen if China ever got involved in peacekeeping operations in North Korea. [...]

]]> By: Zorobabel http://cominganarchy.com/2006/04/17/in-the-wake-of-korean-reunification/comment-page-1/#comment-85737 Zorobabel Fri, 05 May 2006 19:24:43 +0000 http://www.cominganarchy.com/?p=1776#comment-85737 North Korea and South Korea are not unifying any time soon. South Koreans can argue against that all day, but the disparity between the two countries is growing every day. They have two separately evolving languages, one that is consantly being permeated with hundreds of loan words. More importantly, the socio-economic conditions between the two are entirely different. One is an entirely industrial society with an economy growing 4-5% annually; the other has 40% of the population engaged (on good years) in subsistence agriculture with chronic food shortages and an economy growing at 1-2% annually. Due to chronic food shortages, South Koreans are on average 4 inches higher than their North Korean counterparts, a number that is always increasing because of the maturing North Korean males that grew up during the famines of the 1990s. North Korea and South Korea have two entirely different development trajectories with ever-increasing disparities in almost every respect. North Korea and South Korea are not unifying any time soon. South Koreans can argue against that all day, but the disparity between the two countries is growing every day. They have two separately evolving languages, one that is consantly being permeated with hundreds of loan words. More importantly, the socio-economic conditions between the two are entirely different. One is an entirely industrial society with an economy growing 4-5% annually; the other has 40% of the population engaged (on good years) in subsistence agriculture with chronic food shortages and an economy growing at 1-2% annually. Due to chronic food shortages, South Koreans are on average 4 inches higher than their North Korean counterparts, a number that is always increasing because of the maturing North Korean males that grew up during the famines of the 1990s. North Korea and South Korea have two entirely different development trajectories with ever-increasing disparities in almost every respect.

]]> By: Ecthelion http://cominganarchy.com/2006/04/17/in-the-wake-of-korean-reunification/comment-page-1/#comment-84258 Ecthelion Sun, 30 Apr 2006 07:03:45 +0000 http://www.cominganarchy.com/?p=1776#comment-84258 I have to agree with some of Ron Patterson's assessment of Koreans. Throughout Korean history, Koreans have tended to be very aggressive to each other, unifying together only when there is some greater outside force, which happened fairly often given the peninsula's position between China, Japan, and at times the Mongol Empire. But the rivalry between Koreans is nothing more than that. The sort of rivalry described by Ron Patterson between regions does still incite violent tendencies in some Koreans, but since the unified Shilla kingdom in the 600's it has never really come to divide the Korean state. This is not to say that Korea has not been fractious since then, but to say that the wars within Korea during times away from foreign aggression were not caused by regionalism. It is quite likely that in the early ages, particularly in the rise of the Koryo state, that regionalism was used, but this was not what powered the internecine wars of Korea. It is true, however, that Korea's history has been a fractious one, of peasant uprisings, of court intrigues, and negotiations with foreign powers to usurp power from the throne (this happened even in the Three Kingdoms period in the Korean kingdoms of Goguryo, Baekche, and Shilla), and the like. It is not true that Koreans have never been unified except under the Japanese. In the sense that Ron Patterson is referring to, this national (Korean-wide) fervor and unity has also happened during the Mongol occupation and before then under assault from the Chinese. But in times of peace, Koreans generally left each other alone. Koreans as a people are not truly a very militarily aggressive people (except perhaps against each other), and unless they perceive that their territory is invaded, very few will actually act out against foreign powers. Koreans are also united in national competition (thank God for sports, I guess). And I can't remember who said this, but to answer the claim that Koreans are scared silly of the Japanese, they mistake indignation and anger (that are also historically justified) for fear. While the reactions thereof might be similar, the emotional origins are far from it. Koreans have been harassed by incursions from the land now known as Japan since its early recorded history. These incursions occurred after the Korean kingdom of Baekche colonized the Japanese islands (setting up the Yamato-Wa state) and subsequently was destroyed a few hundred years later. In fact, organized Japanese incursions, while frequent, were not a huge problem until the Japanese state overcame its own isolationism and civil wars - the most significant Japanese incursions, therefore, came after the Yi (Choson) dynasty took the throne in 1392. The point is, Koreans are not afraid of the Japanese (especially now, since both of their militaries - and I'm referring to South Korean only here - are technologically equivalent and the South Koreans have a more powerful military in terms of numbers and equipment), but are angered and indignant of what they see as an insolent, irritating, and ultimately unrepentant Japanese government. It is common knowledge that the current Japanese military (its "Defense Force") lacks the strength (if not only in numbers) to capture and hold territory outside of Japan, but that the South Korean military, thanks to the ever-hostile DPRK, is more than capable of capturing and holding territory effectively in the absence of a more potent threat (i.e. North Korea). Koreans have nothing to fear militarily from Japan - it is the economic power wielded by Japan that should cause worry for Koreans, now and in the future. But Koreans are (and somehow have always been) self-confident (as a unified people in public, anyway), and they do not fear the Japanese but resent them, are indignant of their government's actions now and in the past, and are irritated by their continued attempts to infringe on Korean territory, physical or otherwise. I have to agree with some of Ron Patterson’s assessment of Koreans. Throughout Korean history, Koreans have tended to be very aggressive to each other, unifying together only when there is some greater outside force, which happened fairly often given the peninsula’s position between China, Japan, and at times the Mongol Empire. But the rivalry between Koreans is nothing more than that. The sort of rivalry described by Ron Patterson between regions does still incite violent tendencies in some Koreans, but since the unified Shilla kingdom in the 600’s it has never really come to divide the Korean state. This is not to say that Korea has not been fractious since then, but to say that the wars within Korea during times away from foreign aggression were not caused by regionalism. It is quite likely that in the early ages, particularly in the rise of the Koryo state, that regionalism was used, but this was not what powered the internecine wars of Korea.

It is true, however, that Korea’s history has been a fractious one, of peasant uprisings, of court intrigues, and negotiations with foreign powers to usurp power from the throne (this happened even in the Three Kingdoms period in the Korean kingdoms of Goguryo, Baekche, and Shilla), and the like. It is not true that Koreans have never been unified except under the Japanese. In the sense that Ron Patterson is referring to, this national (Korean-wide) fervor and unity has also happened during the Mongol occupation and before then under assault from the Chinese. But in times of peace, Koreans generally left each other alone. Koreans as a people are not truly a very militarily aggressive people (except perhaps against each other), and unless they perceive that their territory is invaded, very few will actually act out against foreign powers. Koreans are also united in national competition (thank God for sports, I guess).

And I can’t remember who said this, but to answer the claim that Koreans are scared silly of the Japanese, they mistake indignation and anger (that are also historically justified) for fear. While the reactions thereof might be similar, the emotional origins are far from it. Koreans have been harassed by incursions from the land now known as Japan since its early recorded history. These incursions occurred after the Korean kingdom of Baekche colonized the Japanese islands (setting up the Yamato-Wa state) and subsequently was destroyed a few hundred years later. In fact, organized Japanese incursions, while frequent, were not a huge problem until the Japanese state overcame its own isolationism and civil wars – the most significant Japanese incursions, therefore, came after the Yi (Choson) dynasty took the throne in 1392.

The point is, Koreans are not afraid of the Japanese (especially now, since both of their militaries – and I’m referring to South Korean only here – are technologically equivalent and the South Koreans have a more powerful military in terms of numbers and equipment), but are angered and indignant of what they see as an insolent, irritating, and ultimately unrepentant Japanese government. It is common knowledge that the current Japanese military (its “Defense Force”) lacks the strength (if not only in numbers) to capture and hold territory outside of Japan, but that the South Korean military, thanks to the ever-hostile DPRK, is more than capable of capturing and holding territory effectively in the absence of a more potent threat (i.e. North Korea). Koreans have nothing to fear militarily from Japan – it is the economic power wielded by Japan that should cause worry for Koreans, now and in the future. But Koreans are (and somehow have always been) self-confident (as a unified people in public, anyway), and they do not fear the Japanese but resent them, are indignant of their government’s actions now and in the past, and are irritated by their continued attempts to infringe on Korean territory, physical or otherwise.

]]> By: Ron Patterson http://cominganarchy.com/2006/04/17/in-the-wake-of-korean-reunification/comment-page-1/#comment-82280 Ron Patterson Fri, 21 Apr 2006 15:50:21 +0000 http://www.cominganarchy.com/?p=1776#comment-82280 I hate to agree with the pessamistic asessment but at this moment while writng this Korean warships are at Dokdo to prevent a Japanese maritime survey and President Roh of the ROK has hinted that a war is coming if japan attempts this survey. Korea has never been unified except under the Japanese. Province hated other provinces and each region despises the other. Even semming unification under the Yi dynasty barely masked the internal conflicts. The infamous Kyanju massacre in the 80's was as much about troops from Daegu a region which loathes the people in Kwangju being allowed at their 'enemies' as it was about Chun crushing dissent. The Kims in a strange way widely admired in South Korea. KJI is seen as a strong man who rules in a"Korean" fashion. This is hard to explain to Westerners. Their rule is safe unless their is outside intervention. So I do not see reunification because of some desire by the North Korean populace for economic reform, nor because the South gets so sickened by his excesses that it takes the action need to hasten his fall. Also the Southerners love his anti Japanese rants. Yes Japan does care what is happening in Korea , it cares deeply. They have invaded time and again because of the fears of China using the penninsula as a launching base for invasion. REunification would mean a serious security problem for japan. Kozuimi is a fervant nationalist, who has toned his rhetoric down in recent years but his early speeches and writings are full of anti-U.S. rants,and appeals toJapanese millitarism. Mao ruled by developing partnerships within the CCP discarding partners occasionally to keep his opponents off balance. He kept Zhou his yesman but he shrewdly developed coalitons to keep power and control his opposition. Kim in North Korea has no opposition. There were several attempts to strip Mao of some or all of his power. Lin Bao was working to undermine Mao, before his "accident" China also had a window to the west, Hong Kong. North Korea has no such window. I do not belive that America is leaving Asia . Forget rhetoric I do not think anyone in the region except perhaps Kim really wants the withdrawal of American forces. The "pax AMericana"has worked well and there is no reason to believe that it will not continue to work. The Korean war was an abberation caused by Kim Sung Il's idiocy Stalins miscalculation on Americas resolve and Mao's trusting Stalin to back him up. EVErybody lost on that one so know one wants a repeat. I hate to agree with the pessamistic asessment but at this moment while writng this Korean warships are at Dokdo to prevent a Japanese maritime survey and President Roh of the ROK has hinted that a war is coming if japan attempts this survey. Korea has never been unified except under the Japanese. Province hated other provinces and each region despises the other. Even semming unification under the Yi dynasty barely masked the internal conflicts.
The infamous Kyanju massacre in the 80’s was as much about troops from Daegu a region which loathes the people in Kwangju being allowed at their ‘enemies’ as it was about Chun crushing dissent.
The Kims in a strange way widely admired in South Korea. KJI is seen as a strong man who rules in a”Korean” fashion. This is hard to explain to Westerners. Their rule is safe unless their is outside intervention.

So I do not see reunification because of some desire by the North Korean populace for economic reform, nor because the South gets so sickened by his excesses that it takes the action need to hasten his fall. Also the Southerners love his anti Japanese rants.

Yes Japan does care what is happening in Korea , it cares deeply. They have invaded time and again because of the fears of China using the penninsula as a launching base for invasion. REunification would mean a serious security problem for japan.
Kozuimi is a fervant nationalist, who has toned his rhetoric down in recent years but his early speeches and writings are full of anti-U.S. rants,and appeals toJapanese millitarism.

Mao ruled by developing partnerships within the CCP discarding partners occasionally to keep his opponents off balance. He kept Zhou his yesman but he shrewdly developed coalitons to keep power and control his opposition. Kim in North Korea has no opposition. There were several attempts to strip Mao of some or all of his power. Lin Bao was working to undermine Mao, before his “accident”
China also had a window to the west, Hong Kong. North Korea has no such window.

I do not belive that America is leaving Asia . Forget rhetoric I do not think anyone in the region except perhaps Kim really wants the withdrawal of American forces. The “pax AMericana”has worked well and there is no reason to believe that it will not continue to work.
The Korean war was an abberation caused by Kim Sung Il’s idiocy Stalins miscalculation on Americas resolve and Mao’s trusting Stalin to back him up. EVErybody lost on that one so know one wants a repeat.

]]> By: Sunguh http://cominganarchy.com/2006/04/17/in-the-wake-of-korean-reunification/comment-page-1/#comment-81419 Sunguh Tue, 18 Apr 2006 18:37:33 +0000 http://www.cominganarchy.com/?p=1776#comment-81419 Fascinating post, and the side argument over NK/ post CR China is interesting too. After my brief studies of it and interviews with those who lived through the Cultural Revolution, it really makes you think. We throw around these words- indoctrination, critical thinking literacy- trying to understand what happened and why, but it's real difficult to get a picture of what China was reduced to in that period. Absolutely impoverished. Especially by the 1970's- awful. And what Deng did, especially from those who lived through it, seems almost miraculous. I think there are some valid comparisons with NK, from what little I know of them, but even if the patterns are similar, nothing is inevitable. I wouldn't want to bet on it. Fascinating post, and the side argument over NK/ post CR China is interesting too. After my brief studies of it and interviews with those who lived through the Cultural Revolution, it really makes you think. We throw around these words- indoctrination, critical thinking literacy- trying to understand what happened and why, but it’s real difficult to get a picture of what China was reduced to in that period. Absolutely impoverished. Especially by the 1970’s- awful. And what Deng did, especially from those who lived through it, seems almost miraculous.

I think there are some valid comparisons with NK, from what little I know of them, but even if the patterns are similar, nothing is inevitable. I wouldn’t want to bet on it.

]]> By: sun bin http://cominganarchy.com/2006/04/17/in-the-wake-of-korean-reunification/comment-page-1/#comment-81341 sun bin Tue, 18 Apr 2006 15:18:05 +0000 http://www.cominganarchy.com/?p=1776#comment-81341 sonagi, fair points 1) no. you cannot name a single person other than Mao either. Deng was purged twice and Zhou (basically a yes-man) died. 2) education. you are right. it is a black box. but the literacy numbers are usually pretty accurate. it does not take sophisticated equipment or money or a lot of food to teach literacy. my point is actually. literacy is not a crucial factor for reform. in china1979 a few people at the politburo made the decisions. Today Chinese people still haev to adjust when moved to HK or Taiwan, let alome 30 years ago. 3) It doesn't need a Deng. There is no Deng in NK. It is unlikely to have a Deng in a hundred year anywhere. But there will be many people who heard of the Deng story and have seen/heard how China and the rest of the world changed. If this is common sense to us. It is to the new leader. However, the new leader could equally likely be another KJI. I said I refuse to bet on it, unless you reward me with 1:50 or above :) He might have hidden as one of the visitors in KJI's recent Guangzhou trip. He knows many people in Pyongyeong escaped due to poverty, a few he knows in person. sonagi, fair points
1) no. you cannot name a single person other than Mao either. Deng was purged twice and Zhou (basically a yes-man) died.
2) education. you are right. it is a black box. but the literacy numbers are usually pretty accurate. it does not take sophisticated equipment or money or a lot of food to teach literacy.
my point is actually. literacy is not a crucial factor for reform.
in china1979 a few people at the politburo made the decisions.
Today Chinese people still haev to adjust when moved to HK or Taiwan, let alome 30 years ago.
3) It doesn’t need a Deng. There is no Deng in NK. It is unlikely to have a Deng in a hundred year anywhere. But there will be many people who heard of the Deng story and have seen/heard how China and the rest of the world changed.
If this is common sense to us. It is to the new leader.
However, the new leader could equally likely be another KJI. I said I refuse to bet on it, unless you reward me with 1:50 or above :)
He might have hidden as one of the visitors in KJI’s recent Guangzhou trip. He knows many people in Pyongyeong escaped due to poverty, a few he knows in person.

]]> By: Admiral http://cominganarchy.com/2006/04/17/in-the-wake-of-korean-reunification/comment-page-1/#comment-81339 Admiral Tue, 18 Apr 2006 14:06:59 +0000 http://www.cominganarchy.com/?p=1776#comment-81339 Someone hasn't been watching their regular dose of Star Trek. Someone hasn’t been watching their regular dose of Star Trek.

]]> By: Sonagi http://cominganarchy.com/2006/04/17/in-the-wake-of-korean-reunification/comment-page-1/#comment-81331 Sonagi Tue, 18 Apr 2006 12:20:22 +0000 http://www.cominganarchy.com/?p=1776#comment-81331 Sunbin, Re: comparison between Mao's power and Kims' power: Can you name off-hand even ONE powerful North Korean government official besides Dear Leader? I can't, and I read Korea-related news every day. "NK's rural literacy is probably as good as China rural today! (this is my gut feeling, no hard data)" You admit that you are only guessing about educational conditions in North Korea. You probably haven't met enough North Koreans to make judgements about their educational system. Neither have I or almost anyone else commenting in this forum. However, the media in South Korea have told stories about defectors' adjustments to life in the South, and defectors like Kang Chul-hwan have written books about their experiences, so we can get second-hand information from written sources. Your comparisons between 1970s China and North Korea today are valid, but I ask you: Where is North Korea's Deng? After falling out of favor, Deng hid out in Guangzhou. Where could North Korea's Deng possibly hide to avoid being sent to a concentration camp? Sunbin,

Re: comparison between Mao’s power and Kims’ power: Can you name off-hand even ONE powerful North Korean government official besides Dear Leader? I can’t, and I read Korea-related news every day.

“NK’s rural literacy is probably as good as China rural today! (this is my gut feeling, no hard data)”

You admit that you are only guessing about educational conditions in North Korea. You probably haven’t met enough North Koreans to make judgements about their educational system. Neither have I or almost anyone else commenting in this forum. However, the media in South Korea have told stories about defectors’ adjustments to life in the South, and defectors like Kang Chul-hwan have written books about their experiences, so we can get second-hand information from written sources.

Your comparisons between 1970s China and North Korea today are valid, but I ask you: Where is North Korea’s Deng? After falling out of favor, Deng hid out in Guangzhou. Where could North Korea’s Deng possibly hide to avoid being sent to a concentration camp?

]]> By: sun bin http://cominganarchy.com/2006/04/17/in-the-wake-of-korean-reunification/comment-page-1/#comment-81262 sun bin Tue, 18 Apr 2006 03:52:23 +0000 http://www.cominganarchy.com/?p=1776#comment-81262 opps 600M people. sorry. opps 600M people. sorry.

]]> By: sun bin http://cominganarchy.com/2006/04/17/in-the-wake-of-korean-reunification/comment-page-1/#comment-81261 sun bin Tue, 18 Apr 2006 03:51:50 +0000 http://www.cominganarchy.com/?p=1776#comment-81261 lost line to snow above as to china, it was 6bn people then. but they were not controlled. they were brainwashed. control has a scale problem, brainwashing does not, it is like the internet. 1) after the great leap forward, all they believed was soviet withdrawn aid, ask us to repay the debt, so we are hungry! 2) every young person was willing to die for Mao lost line to snow above
as to china, it was 6bn people then. but they were not controlled. they were brainwashed. control has a scale problem, brainwashing does not, it is like the internet.
1) after the great leap forward, all they believed was soviet withdrawn aid, ask us to repay the debt, so we are hungry!
2) every young person was willing to die for Mao

]]> By: sun bin http://cominganarchy.com/2006/04/17/in-the-wake-of-korean-reunification/comment-page-1/#comment-81260 sun bin Tue, 18 Apr 2006 03:48:32 +0000 http://www.cominganarchy.com/?p=1776#comment-81260 snow, that is the theory. but again, i was merely pointing out the possibility of a vietnam like economic reform (which even KJI tried hafl-heartedly already). i am not saying mind liberation. as for china re: richardson, i compared NK with China1976. please see my reply to snow above. you disagreed my comparison with china1976. but you know not much about china in 1976. so we ended up arguing on a lot of irrelevant stuff. i tried to tell you what china1976 is like by pulling in bulgaria (which i do not know much to be honest). you talked about critical education in NK. i said that is exactly what china1976 had. are we really talking about the same stuff? if not, let's stop and not wasting our time, the space, and times of other readers here. take it offline if you want. but i guess i have said too much already. --- you said bq. The major difference between the 1970s China of your example and North Korea now is the cult dynamic, and the amount of isolation/indoctrination of the population (alternative history included in this)...I don't believe anyone could credibly maintain the position that China was as isolated/indoctrinated as North Korea.....Being able to read and write in hangul is one thing; being able to think and be productive is another.... Most defector children cannot function in South Korean schools; being able to quote from the works of Kim Il Sung won't get you far there. snow, that is the theory. but again, i was merely pointing out the possibility of a vietnam like economic reform (which even KJI tried hafl-heartedly already). i am not saying mind liberation.
as for china

re: richardson, i compared NK with China1976. please see my reply to snow above.
you disagreed my comparison with china1976. but you know not much about china in 1976. so we ended up arguing on a lot of irrelevant stuff. i tried to tell you what china1976 is like by pulling in bulgaria (which i do not know much to be honest). you talked about critical education in NK. i said that is exactly what china1976 had.

are we really talking about the same stuff? if not, let’s stop and not wasting our time, the space, and times of other readers here. take it offline if you want. but i guess i have said too much already.

—

you said
bq. The major difference between the 1970s China of your example and North Korea now is the cult dynamic, and the amount of isolation/indoctrination of the population (alternative history included in this)…I don’t believe anyone could credibly maintain the position that China was as isolated/indoctrinated as North Korea…..Being able to read and write in hangul is one thing; being able to think and be productive is another….
Most defector children cannot function in South Korean schools; being able to quote from the works of Kim Il Sung won’t get you far there.

]]> By: Curzon http://cominganarchy.com/2006/04/17/in-the-wake-of-korean-reunification/comment-page-1/#comment-81258 Curzon Tue, 18 Apr 2006 02:53:30 +0000 http://www.cominganarchy.com/?p=1776#comment-81258 I think it would be effective if you blockquoted the statements of the comments you are rebutting if you're addressing specific claims of other commenters (such as yours truly "here).":http://www.rjkoehler.com/?p=2719#comment-33365 This can be done easily with the html "blockquote" tag within the < ->, or the textile "bq." tag. "See here for more.":http://textism.com/tools/textile/ I think it would be effective if you blockquoted the statements of the comments you are rebutting if you’re addressing specific claims of other commenters (such as yours truly here). This can be done easily with the html “blockquote” tag within the < ->, or the textile “bq.” tag. See here for more.

]]> By: Richardson http://cominganarchy.com/2006/04/17/in-the-wake-of-korean-reunification/comment-page-1/#comment-81257 Richardson Tue, 18 Apr 2006 02:42:15 +0000 http://www.cominganarchy.com/?p=1776#comment-81257 "...you seemed to think that China1976 had an enlightened group of school children." You cannot find anything in any of my comments that would point to that. Also, you have not pointed to my text where you assert I said/implied other things that also were not said/implied by me. There is a pattern in that. “…you seemed to think that China1976 had an enlightened group of school children.”

You cannot find anything in any of my comments that would point to that. Also, you have not pointed to my text where you assert I said/implied other things that also were not said/implied by me. There is a pattern in that.

]]> By: snow http://cominganarchy.com/2006/04/17/in-the-wake-of-korean-reunification/comment-page-1/#comment-81256 snow Tue, 18 Apr 2006 02:25:10 +0000 http://www.cominganarchy.com/?p=1776#comment-81256 Yeah, sun bin, I bet living under the cultural revolution and the gang of 4 was paradise. Still, I highly doubt that China was as tightly controlled as North Korea has been. I just don't think it's possible to have that kind of control over a billion people over a large land mass, as compared to 25 million in a small chunk of land. Yeah, sun bin, I bet living under the cultural revolution and the gang of 4 was paradise. Still, I highly doubt that China was as tightly controlled as North Korea has been. I just don’t think it’s possible to have that kind of control over a billion people over a large land mass, as compared to 25 million in a small chunk of land.

]]> By: sun bin http://cominganarchy.com/2006/04/17/in-the-wake-of-korean-reunification/comment-page-1/#comment-81255 sun bin Tue, 18 Apr 2006 02:21:03 +0000 http://www.cominganarchy.com/?p=1776#comment-81255 (re:richardson's retort to my questions i asked these questions because i was trying to point out certain similarities between NK and China1976. and you seemed to think that China1976 had an enlightened group of school children. i laid out a scenario of vietnam, you wanted the berlin wall to fall down. we were talking about apples and oranges. let's stop this) (re:richardson’s retort to my questions
i asked these questions because i was trying to point out certain similarities between NK and China1976. and you seemed to think that China1976 had an enlightened group of school children.
i laid out a scenario of vietnam, you wanted the berlin wall to fall down.
we were talking about apples and oranges. let’s stop this)

]]> By: sun bin http://cominganarchy.com/2006/04/17/in-the-wake-of-korean-reunification/comment-page-1/#comment-81249 sun bin Tue, 18 Apr 2006 02:01:00 +0000 http://www.cominganarchy.com/?p=1776#comment-81249 China 1976 not only compares. It easily beat NK in many areas! Now I understand why no one appreciate what Deng and his successors did for China (despite all their faults). You guys thought China was paradise (or East Germany) in 1970s. China 1976 not only compares. It easily beat NK in many areas!

Now I understand why no one appreciate what Deng and his successors did for China (despite all their faults). You guys thought China was paradise (or East Germany) in 1970s.

]]> By: sun bin http://cominganarchy.com/2006/04/17/in-the-wake-of-korean-reunification/comment-page-1/#comment-81247 sun bin Tue, 18 Apr 2006 01:59:19 +0000 http://www.cominganarchy.com/?p=1776#comment-81247 Curzon, let's get back to my premise. i never said there will NK uprising. i just said it is possibility for a reformist switch, which would made sinujiu 10% of shenzhen (instead of 0.0001% today). Richardson: i have been very careful in choosing words, like Lirelou did. (I do not has much disagreement with lirelou.) All I said was there is such likelihood, whether it be 20%, 5% or 2%. You will certainly lose if you are making an absolute claim of 0%. But I am not here to try to win an argument. We are here to discuss and explore the possibilities. Now got back the NK/1976 China analogy. I can actually find you example one by one In reading, students read about Mao' Route is Alway Great/Bright/Correct and Mao's Strategic/Warfare vision (Mao is a great military strategist though, KIS isn't) in math, yes, need to calculate the number of KMT/Japanese puppet soldier captured and kjilled, also how many American imperialists are killed by dear friends Vietcon. in history, they study the Communist revolution in Korea; in music, East is Red, Sailing on Sea We Rely on Our Helmsman drama, what drame? there are 8 drama/movies in the country. same 8 every year. everybody watched them at least dozen times this is china in 1970s. are you happy? Curzon, let’s get back to my premise. i never said there will NK uprising. i just said it is possibility for a reformist switch, which would made sinujiu 10% of shenzhen (instead of 0.0001% today).

Richardson: i have been very careful in choosing words, like Lirelou did. (I do not has much disagreement with lirelou.) All I said was there is such likelihood, whether it be 20%, 5% or 2%. You will certainly lose if you are making an absolute claim of 0%.
But I am not here to try to win an argument. We are here to discuss and explore the possibilities.

Now got back the NK/1976 China analogy. I can actually find you example one by one
In reading, students read about Mao’ Route is Alway Great/Bright/Correct and Mao’s Strategic/Warfare vision (Mao is a great military strategist though, KIS isn’t)
in math, yes, need to calculate the number of KMT/Japanese puppet soldier captured and kjilled, also how many American imperialists are killed by dear friends Vietcon.

in history, they study the Communist revolution in
Korea; in music, East is Red, Sailing on Sea We Rely on Our Helmsman
drama, what drame? there are 8 drama/movies in the country. same 8 every year. everybody watched them at least dozen times

this is china in 1970s. are you happy?

]]> By: Curzon http://cominganarchy.com/2006/04/17/in-the-wake-of-korean-reunification/comment-page-1/#comment-81233 Curzon Tue, 18 Apr 2006 01:44:45 +0000 http://www.cominganarchy.com/?p=1776#comment-81233 Sun Bin: A Japanese friend of mine traveled to East Germany in 1984 to visit a glass-making factory. During the visit, the lower managers took him aside and said, to paraphrase: "This country is screwed. Reunification is the only hope. We have been ruined by the Soviets, the Communists... the Free World is the only hope of the future." They made sure not to say this in front of the top manager, who reported to higher authorities, but everyone under the factory manager knew that their country was screwed. In the end, it was the people who broke down the wall in Berlin, not an invading force. That type of independent thought and conscious worldview -- perhaps the two most important things in an education -- are non-existent in North Korea. Sun Bin: A Japanese friend of mine traveled to East Germany in 1984 to visit a glass-making factory. During the visit, the lower managers took him aside and said, to paraphrase: “This country is screwed. Reunification is the only hope. We have been ruined by the Soviets, the Communists… the Free World is the only hope of the future.” They made sure not to say this in front of the top manager, who reported to higher authorities, but everyone under the factory manager knew that their country was screwed. In the end, it was the people who broke down the wall in Berlin, not an invading force. That type of independent thought and conscious worldview — perhaps the two most important things in an education — are non-existent in North Korea.

]]> By: Richardson http://cominganarchy.com/2006/04/17/in-the-wake-of-korean-reunification/comment-page-1/#comment-81228 Richardson Tue, 18 Apr 2006 01:39:08 +0000 http://www.cominganarchy.com/?p=1776#comment-81228 "You are saying Bulgarian school children in 1980s or 1970s are critically eduacated?"Â? Please show me anywhere in my text that I said/implied anything at all that could be construed as what you say above (if that comment is directed to me). "and you thought i didn't know NK brainwashing?"Â? Please point to any text where I state/imply that (if that comment is directed to me). "this is a topic you are most interested in: history education."Â? No, actually. It goes far beyond history "“ it is in literally every facet of their lives. Or was "“ there has not been much published recently on this (i.e., last 5 years). Anyway, much deeper; In reading, students read about Kim's guerrilla exploits; in math, the learn to count by counting the number of American soldiers killed or the number of tanks destroyed in the Korea War; in history, they study the Communist revolution in Korea; in music, they sing Kim's marching songs; and in drama, the reenact his life story. The emphasis on the political never diminishes. (Hunter, 1999: 214) I just don't think anything China did compares. As far as the Vietnam route "“ you state that it is a "fact"Â? there is a "likelihood"Â? they will go that route; that is utterly false. How you can you state that it is a "fact"Â? that they will probably go that route? Do you mean a "chance"Â?? I'm not splitting hairs here, "likelihood"Â? means greater than 50 percent chance. Is that what you actually mean to say? No matter which way you mean, I again say it's highly *unlikely*, but re-explaining will just be going in circles. “You are saying Bulgarian school children in 1980s or 1970s are critically eduacated?”Â?

Please show me anywhere in my text that I said/implied anything at all that could be construed as what you say above (if that comment is directed to me).

“and you thought i didn’t know NK brainwashing?”Â?

Please point to any text where I state/imply that (if that comment is directed to me).

“this is a topic you are most interested in: history education.”Â?

No, actually. It goes far beyond history ““ it is in literally every facet of their lives. Or was ““ there has not been much published recently on this (i.e., last 5 years). Anyway, much deeper;

In reading, students read about Kim’s
guerrilla exploits; in math, the learn
to count by counting the number of American
soldiers killed or the number of tanks
destroyed in the Korea War; in history,
they study the Communist revolution in
Korea; in music, they sing Kim’s marching
songs; and in drama, the reenact his life
story. The emphasis on the political never
diminishes. (Hunter, 1999: 214)

I just don’t think anything China did compares.

As far as the Vietnam route ““ you state that it is a “fact”Â? there is a “likelihood”Â? they will go that route; that is utterly false. How you can you state that it is a “fact”Â? that they will probably go that route? Do you mean a “chance”Â?? I’m not splitting hairs here, “likelihood”Â? means greater than 50 percent chance. Is that what you actually mean to say?

No matter which way you mean, I again say it’s highly unlikely, but re-explaining will just be going in circles.

]]> By: Shelton Bumgarner http://cominganarchy.com/2006/04/17/in-the-wake-of-korean-reunification/comment-page-1/#comment-81212 Shelton Bumgarner Tue, 18 Apr 2006 01:28:25 +0000 http://www.cominganarchy.com/?p=1776#comment-81212 The ultimate fate of the DPRK is one of those things that no one can truly begin to really have any idea about. The reason -- the only logical solution (IMHO) is simply crazy at this point: the violent overthrow of the current government by United States and RoK forces. Unless a crisis develops that forces the issue (i.e, a mushroom cloud over the Big Apple with a DPRK receipt attached) things are probably going to stay the same. But we know so little about what is really going on in the DPRK that they could be on the verge of collapsing violently ( or peacefully) and we wouldn't know about it until it actually started to happen. The ultimate fate of the DPRK is one of those things that no one can truly begin to really have any idea about. The reason — the only logical solution (IMHO) is simply crazy at this point: the violent overthrow of the current government by United States and RoK forces.

Unless a crisis develops that forces the issue (i.e, a mushroom cloud over the Big Apple with a DPRK receipt attached) things are probably going to stay the same.

But we know so little about what is really going on in the DPRK that they could be on the verge of collapsing violently ( or peacefully) and we wouldn’t know about it until it actually started to happen.

]]> By: sun bin http://cominganarchy.com/2006/04/17/in-the-wake-of-korean-reunification/comment-page-1/#comment-81208 sun bin Tue, 18 Apr 2006 01:16:26 +0000 http://www.cominganarchy.com/?p=1776#comment-81208 re: curzon/richardson on education You are saying Bulgarian school children in 1980s or 1970s are critically eduacated? or an East German boy found no problem mingling into West Gemrany system? what are we comparing? Even in the west there are many uncritical school children. More in Asia (Japan, Taiwan, HK). I never said oxbridge or harvard. yes, literacy, basic math is what i was speaking about. we are comparing China 1976. NK's rural literacy is probably as good as China rural today! (this is my gut feeling, no hard data) and you thought i didn't know NK brainwashing? this is a topic you are most interested in: history education. In their version, SK invaded NK in 1950, NK won the single-handedly. In none of their public document was PLA (CPVA to be precise) mentioned, not even on their side of Panmunjun. There was one memorial tomb in pyongyang, it was smashed but rebuilt only after it badly needed aid from China. but all this, does not change the fact that, there is a likelihood, not large but not too small either, that NK could move the vietnam path, not as successful as Deng's, but reasonably well. re: curzon/richardson on education
You are saying Bulgarian school children in 1980s or 1970s are critically eduacated? or an East German boy found no problem mingling into West Gemrany system? what are we comparing?

Even in the west there are many uncritical school children. More in Asia (Japan, Taiwan, HK). I never said oxbridge or harvard.

yes, literacy, basic math is what i was speaking about.
we are comparing China 1976. NK’s rural literacy is probably as good as China rural today! (this is my gut feeling, no hard data)

and you thought i didn’t know NK brainwashing? this is a topic you are most interested in: history education.
In their version, SK invaded NK in 1950, NK won the single-handedly. In none of their public document was PLA (CPVA to be precise) mentioned, not even on their side of Panmunjun.
There was one memorial tomb in pyongyang, it was smashed but rebuilt only after it badly needed aid from China.

but all this, does not change the fact that, there is a likelihood, not large but not too small either, that NK could move the vietnam path, not as successful as Deng’s, but reasonably well.

]]> By: lirelou http://cominganarchy.com/2006/04/17/in-the-wake-of-korean-reunification/comment-page-1/#comment-81207 lirelou Tue, 18 Apr 2006 01:13:40 +0000 http://www.cominganarchy.com/?p=1776#comment-81207 A great many interesting points here, probably more than my post deserved. One point of my own for Richardson regarding nukes. I have no more information on this than that available to everyone on the internet or news. But I note the qualifier "assessed to have"Â? in such reporting. No one has stated unequivocally, on the basis of proof, that the Norks have nukes. Rather they are making the (reasonable and necessary) presumption that they do. My own read is that they are frantically working on a nuke program, and may even have assembled a few devices. But none have been tested. They could have a real nuke, or it could fizzle out to be a "dirty bomb"Â?. My judgment is that for both internal and external credibility reasons, KJI want's the world to believe that he has nukes now. This increases his international stature, solidifies his standing in the eyes of his generals, and allows him leverage in strong-arming aid from his neighbors. In my dream of dreams, George Bush would address Kim Jong-il thus: "Mr. Chairman, you claim to have nukerler weapons. Let's see the mushroom cloud! Let's see the seismographic reading! Let's see some proof, you dirtbag Commie bastard! If you don't fire off at least one of those nukes, you ain't got a hair on yer "¦"Â? At about that moment, my wife always shakes me awake. For all, regarding North Korea's collapse. Not even the USFK predicts collapse. Publicly, they merely note that collapse is more likely than war, and they have to be prepared for both. Below is a selective list of statements heard in my time from policy experts and analysts: 1962 "“ Cuba under Castro won't last another five years. 1967 "“ Vietnam - We can see the light at the end of the tunnel. 1968 "“ Vietnam "“ Post-Tet: We slaughtered them. The enemy will never recover. 1972 "“ Cuba "“ Castro can't hold out much longer. He's got to liberalize or go down. 1975 "“ Iran "“ Forget the mullah's, the Shah will be there forever. 1977 "“ Nicaragua "“ The Sandinistas are no real threat to Somoza. (This from two military analysts described as the "CINCs experts on Nicaragua"Â?.) 1978 "“ Nicaragua "“ There is no way that Somoza is going to lose, unless he goes down fighting in his bunker. (This from same two "experts"Â?) 1983 - Grenada "“ It would be folly to invade a Black Caribbean island. The people there would never forgive us. (They went wild with joy.) 1986 "“ Paraguay "“ Stroessner will be in charge until he dies. He keeps the military totally under control and there is no one to challenge him. 1988-89 "“ Panama "“ Once the caps start popping, this will be a "walk-thru"Â?. (OK, it was. But these were the same guys that said: Panama didn't need a military.) Same period "“ Soviet Union "“ The USSR will be around for a long time to come. 1997-99 "“ Panama "“ President Balladares is a shoo-in for re-election. (His referendum to amend the constitution to that effect failed.) The Panamanians don't really want us to leave, it would devastate their economy. (They did, and it didn't.) OK, the Panamanian government is being forced to make us leave, but they are going to allow us a counter-narcotics base. (They didn't) And my all-time Panamanian favourite: There is no way that Mireya Moscoso can be elected President. (She was.) So, pardon my skepticism regarding Korea, an area I am not expert in. It just seems to me that predicting reunification for Korea is a no-brainer. Now, when that will happen, that is the test. It is akin to predicting earthquakes, or volcanic eruptions. Certain factors are tangible, and can be measured, but the time line for geological events is very difficult to render in human terms of time. In this regard, Pyongyang-ology is like vulcanology, We (mostly) agree that it's going to blow. But will that be within the next week, next decade, or next century? My gut instinct tells me that it is going to blow sooner than we expect it to, and that the analysts and experts will once again be caught by surprise. A great many interesting points here, probably more than my post deserved. One point of my own for Richardson regarding nukes. I have no more information on this than that available to everyone on the internet or news. But I note the qualifier “assessed to have”Â? in such reporting. No one has stated unequivocally, on the basis of proof, that the Norks have nukes. Rather they are making the (reasonable and necessary) presumption that they do. My own read is that they are frantically working on a nuke program, and may even have assembled a few devices. But none have been tested. They could have a real nuke, or it could fizzle out to be a “dirty bomb”Â?. My judgment is that for both internal and external credibility reasons, KJI want’s the world to believe that he has nukes now. This increases his international stature, solidifies his standing in the eyes of his generals, and allows him leverage in strong-arming aid from his neighbors. In my dream of dreams, George Bush would address Kim Jong-il thus: “Mr. Chairman, you claim to have nukerler weapons. Let’s see the mushroom cloud! Let’s see the seismographic reading! Let’s see some proof, you dirtbag Commie bastard! If you don’t fire off at least one of those nukes, you ain’t got a hair on yer “¦”Â? At about that moment, my wife always shakes me awake.

For all, regarding North Korea’s collapse. Not even the USFK predicts collapse. Publicly, they merely note that collapse is more likely than war, and they have to be prepared for both. Below is a selective list of statements heard in my time from policy experts and analysts:
1962 ““ Cuba under Castro won’t last another five years.
1967 ““ Vietnam – We can see the light at the end of the tunnel.
1968 ““ Vietnam ““ Post-Tet: We slaughtered them. The enemy will never recover.
1972 ““ Cuba ““ Castro can’t hold out much longer. He’s got to liberalize or go down.
1975 ““ Iran ““ Forget the mullah’s, the Shah will be there forever.
1977 ““ Nicaragua ““ The Sandinistas are no real threat to Somoza. (This from two military analysts described as the “CINCs experts on Nicaragua”Â?.)
1978 ““ Nicaragua ““ There is no way that Somoza is going to lose, unless he goes down fighting in his bunker. (This from same two “experts”Â?)
1983 – Grenada ““ It would be folly to invade a Black Caribbean island. The people there would never forgive us. (They went wild with joy.)
1986 ““ Paraguay ““ Stroessner will be in charge until he dies. He keeps the military totally under control and there is no one to challenge him.
1988-89 ““ Panama ““ Once the caps start popping, this will be a “walk-thru”Â?. (OK, it was. But these were the same guys that said: Panama didn’t need a military.)
Same period ““ Soviet Union ““ The USSR will be around for a long time to come.
1997-99 ““ Panama ““ President Balladares is a shoo-in for re-election. (His referendum to amend the constitution to that effect failed.) The Panamanians don’t really want us to leave, it would devastate their economy. (They did, and it didn’t.) OK, the Panamanian government is being forced to make us leave, but they are going to allow us a counter-narcotics base. (They didn’t) And my all-time Panamanian favourite: There is no way that Mireya Moscoso can be elected President. (She was.)

So, pardon my skepticism regarding Korea, an area I am not expert in. It just seems to me that predicting reunification for Korea is a no-brainer. Now, when that will happen, that is the test. It is akin to predicting earthquakes, or volcanic eruptions. Certain factors are tangible, and can be measured, but the time line for geological events is very difficult to render in human terms of time. In this regard, Pyongyang-ology is like vulcanology, We (mostly) agree that it’s going to blow. But will that be within the next week, next decade, or next century? My gut instinct tells me that it is going to blow sooner than we expect it to, and that the analysts and experts will once again be caught by surprise.

]]> By: Curzon http://cominganarchy.com/2006/04/17/in-the-wake-of-korean-reunification/comment-page-1/#comment-81206 Curzon Tue, 18 Apr 2006 01:05:22 +0000 http://www.cominganarchy.com/?p=1776#comment-81206 SB: "Just google" to see proof that DPRK education is as good as Eastern Europe is a _highly_ dubious claim. While I believe you that they may have comparable literacy rates in their native language, what about freedom of thought? Or history? Or foreign affairs? I probably speak for most readers when I say I need lots more proof. Jing: Too true. Although I haven't addressed this specific claim, I've been talking about the general nuttery of the ROK administration since this blog began. There are some in the Uri party who say Korea has a claim to chunks of northeastern China and eastern Russia. That's another real concern when reunification happens. SB: “Just google” to see proof that DPRK education is as good as Eastern Europe is a highly dubious claim. While I believe you that they may have comparable literacy rates in their native language, what about freedom of thought? Or history? Or foreign affairs? I probably speak for most readers when I say I need lots more proof.

Jing: Too true. Although I haven’t addressed this specific claim, I’ve been talking about the general nuttery of the ROK administration since this blog began. There are some in the Uri party who say Korea has a claim to chunks of northeastern China and eastern Russia. That’s another real concern when reunification happens.

]]> By: Jing http://cominganarchy.com/2006/04/17/in-the-wake-of-korean-reunification/comment-page-1/#comment-81204 Jing Mon, 17 Apr 2006 23:35:53 +0000 http://www.cominganarchy.com/?p=1776#comment-81204 I've seen several people mention Chinese "claims" to Koguryo being a precursor to a landgrab in North Korea. Earth to everyone else, is no one else even remotely aware that it is South Korea that is making explicit claims to Chinese territory? Quixotic irridentism to be sure, but it exists and has been there long before Koguryo became an issue. I’ve seen several people mention Chinese “claims” to Koguryo being a precursor to a landgrab in North Korea. Earth to everyone else, is no one else even remotely aware that it is South Korea that is making explicit claims to Chinese territory? Quixotic irridentism to be sure, but it exists and has been there long before Koguryo became an issue.

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