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Chirol
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Chirol

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April 15th, 2006

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Colonize Nepal!

The West must step in and take control of Nepal! Though politics is usually the study of picking the lesser evil, I’d like to propose my own to Nepal’s continuing anarchy. When it comes to choosing between the Maoists or the King, most debates end up going nowhere with misguided idealists attacking the King’s autocratic rule and forgetting the Maoists daily atrocities and the lessons from Cambodia. Realists acknowledge the King is the worst thing for the Nepalese, except for the Maoists and thus are left with supporting him. Yet, what would a third solution look like?

Firing up Coming Anarchy’s Wayback machine, we’re whisked back in time to the Philippines under the Marcos regime in the 80s. On November 3rd 1985, Ferdinand Marcos, then dictator of the Philippines, announced a general election to be held and dismissed claims of past election fraud as “silly”Â? and that he was ready for a fair one. Through considerable US pressure and assistance of the opposition as well as a US delegation of election monitors, Marcos was eventually forced to step down as his attempts at election fraud were exposed.

Behind the scenes, the United States decided Marcos had to go. Through pressure, and a sweet deal allowing him to keep his looted millions and fly off to Hawaii, Marcos peacefully left and moved to Honolulu. With mass demonstrations in Nepal against the King and the majority of the country under Maoist control, King Gyanendra has painted himself into a corner. My solution looks something like this:

1) The US (with preferable EU, UN and Indian backing) offers the King a similar sweet deal. He keeps his money, and anything he can fit on the next plane out of Kathmandu. He’s offered exile and immunity from prosecution in his choice of countries (US, Switzerland etc.). He also can also go down in history for helping save Nepal instead of his harsh governing. This is mostly behind the scenes.

2) After “consulting” his advisors and a UN delegation, he “decides” to step down and turn the country over to the United Nations (setting up a kind of UN protectorate like in Kosovo). The UN receives much of the credit and immediately dispatches a peacemaking force to Nepal composed of European and Indian soldiers.

3) With Nepal now under international interim rule, the Maoists are forced to make a tough decision. With the King gone and no legitimate excuse to continue their reign of terror, they must either lay down their arms and become a political party or officially become international “terrorists” of sorts.

4) The UN looks good and repairs its tarnished reputation somewhat. With the King voluntarily giving up power, the international community will be under intense pressure to send troops, supplies and money. The US chalks another one up for democracy and successfully outsources shrinking the Gap to others while achieving a fabulous victory. Both China and India are happy to have one less war on their borders.

Though convincing rulers to simply give up power seems unlikely, considering King Gyanendra doesn’t have much of it in the first place only lends credence to my plan. While I believe he can be successfully bribed into exile, convincing the international community to clean up Nepal will be the real challenge, especially if the insurgents continue their war. Even though UN interventions such as in Bosnia and Kosovo are still unresolved, the countries are both stable, relatively peaceful and finally have a shot at a real future. Nepal would be much better in a Kosovo-esque limbo than it is now.

Comments to this entry

Catholicgauze
April 15, 2006
5:20 pm
I like the post but I see some problems.

Are any of the European countries or the EU able to help out with an international peace force? Many countries have soldiers occupied in Iraq, Bosnia, Kosovo, and Afghanistan. And the European Defense Agency was asking viewers on its website for a long term strategy.

Can the UN run Nepal? Kosovo has been rough without the organized resistance which the US faces in Iraq and Congo has been an embarrassment. Don't even get me started about UN-run refugee camps for the Palestinians. Why should they be allowed to touch Nepal?
Chirol
April 15, 2006
5:35 pm
It's not that I think the UN is particularly competent, however, the US isn't in a position to occupy Nepal and run things, nor is it really worth it in terms of benefits for America. Besides, the only realistic way to implement my solution is multilaterally. If NATO or even the G8/20 took the reins that would work equally well. The important part is that its multilateral and peacemakers are sent, not UN troops who sit around idle watching the country tear itself apart. I'd hope the India and perhaps the UK would spearhead the operation.
davesgonechina
April 15, 2006
7:55 pm
Yknow, Human Rights Watch had a briefing on Nepal on Wednesday, so I went. Suffice to say that they're not happy with the King or the Maoists. The RNA conducts indiscriminate aerial bombings, sponsors non-military vigilante groups, extrajudicial executions, 'disappearances', cut the phone lines of the major seven political parties (SPA), etc. The Maoists, on the other hand, draft child soldiers, use civilians for cover, murder, torture, abduction, extortion, etc.

I was particularly interested in the Seven Party Alliance. Half of them are Communist, but are they well connected to the Maoists, I asked? No. Do the Seven Parties generally get along? No. Not even the four communist splinter groups that all have the same ancestor? Especially no. So it appears the SPA isn't under Maoist control, but then again the Maoists aren't under theirs. The 12 point Letter of Understanding signed between Maoists and the SPA includes apologies and a "self-criticism", but no one is holding their breath on the Maoists suddenly giving up their abusive ways even after the King is gone.

"With Nepal now under international interim rule, the Maoists are forced to make a tough decision. With the King gone and no legitimate excuse to continue their reign of terror, they must either lay down their arms and become a political party or officially become international "terrorists"Â? of sorts."

The Maoists have said that they want to be a big part of a democratic republic and the replacement of the Royal Nepalese Army. I don't think you'll find it so simple to get them to disarm. In the confusion after the King leaves, there will be all kinds of chaos and competition politically between the SPA and the Maoists. And don't forget the Maoists have assassinated political figures before - from other Communist parties. Forget the Maoists laying down their arms; first get the Maoists to not shoot at your peacekeepers.
Chirol
April 15, 2006
8:53 pm
I agree its unlikely they will lay down their arms. The idea is that an internationally setup interim government will have enough legitimacy to convince at least some of the rebels to participate in the political process and it would probably pacify the current protestors. However, realistically, this is why I emphasized peacemaker in my post, because there will be dirty work to be done and someone will have to step up and use force against the rebels. If a regional power were to unilaterally intervene such as India, they may lack the legitimacy necessary to stop the violence and thus exchange places with the King. Hence, I recommend a UN force, probably led by Indian forces. Perhaps even the Chinese would be willing to participate and polish up their reputation.
Dan tdaxp
April 15, 2006
9:07 pm
Why not encourage the Chinese to move in? It could be practice...
Kenneth
April 15, 2006
9:17 pm
Sounds like a plan, man.
Catholicgauze
April 15, 2006
9:59 pm
For some reason I have problems allowing the bloodiest reigime in history (the Chi Coms) to move into Nepal.

Anyways, I think they are busy crushing the other groups in their empire.
R. Elgin
April 16, 2006
2:05 am
Allowing or encouraging the Chinese to occupy Nepal would be tantamount to condoning their crimminal conduct in Nepal and their immoral policies in other places. That is an unsound notion.
Curzon
April 16, 2006
3:01 am
Chirol: It's a nice thought. But not practical. The king is not the only problem here. Since we've been comparing this situation to Ethiopia, Afghanistan, and *Cambodia*, look what happened to King Sihanouk, who was ousted five years before the Khmer Rouge took power. The issue is the lack of assertion of state authority in the countryside. The Maoists are filling the power vacuum, and the international community is in no position to take casualties and manage the cleanup. The best, and indeed only, option is to keep doing what we're doing -- encourage the King at very least to 'Speak Victorian,' and train the military to respect human rights ala Kaplan's observations.
sun bin
April 16, 2006
8:48 am
let's try the logics.

1. unlike the philippines, what nepal lacks is a legitimate power to replace the current regime. you concluded that there is no good guy in the fight.
so you are right that it needs to be a "colonizing power" (ruled by foreigner)
2. there are 3 options: UN, one single democratic power (US in Iraq), one (benign) dictatorship (e.g. China).
'benign' because otherwise we might as well leave it to Gyanandra.
3a. US in Iraq case failed already. IMO the occupation itself is self contradictory. If you have to respect democracy and human rights, you should retreat or at let yield the power to a neutral body (eg UN). If you want to keep it to yourself you should run it like a dictatorship. The US could not do either, so it was very ineffective in controlling the terrorism
3b. Benign dictatorship (think Tibet under China -- there should be no dispute that people in Kathmandu would prefer to live in Lhasa today if the situation deteriorates) as dan tdaxp suggested semi-jokingly. it might work. but you still have to deal with the nepalese nationalism. so unless you have china's commitment to leave after say 5 years (then they will probably install a pro-china government but there is no real harm because if this govt is corrupted, it will soon be replaced, otherwise, it is a better alternative than what they have today)
3c. UN. this might also work. but we know UN is not a well run or efficient organization, and most importanly, no one can convince UN to interfere until there is genocide like former yugoslavia.
shakuhachi
April 16, 2006
12:15 pm
I wonder if the limp wristed lefties in the UN would have the political will to fight the avowed marxists if it came to that.
Dan tdaxp
April 16, 2006
1:03 pm
If you have to respect democracy and human rights, you should retreat or at let yield the power to a neutral body (eg UN).


That makes no sense. It's a non sequitor.
ComingAnarchy.com » Blog Archive » What Kaplan observed, in practice
April 16, 2006
3:10 pm
[...] Next Post: Previous Post: « Colonize Nepal! [...]
sun bin
April 16, 2006
4:41 pm
"That makes no sense. It's a non sequitor."

try to think as if you are an iraqi. having a foreign army on your soil, selling your oil to buy 'reconstruction projects" without open bidding. installing corrupted puppets in an election (well the election itself is probably fair, but would the "Hamas" equivalent be allowed to win?)
you call this democracy and human right?
i would join the resistance if i were an iraqi, even if i hated saddam much more.
sun bin
April 16, 2006
4:45 pm
this also explains why it is so easy to fell saddam, but so difficult to maintain peace. note the quagmire only started almost a year after the invasion. iraqi people have given the opportunity for US to make it right.
Dan tdaxp
April 16, 2006
7:46 pm
but would the "Hamas"Â? equivalent be allowed to win?

You mean the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, which won, or the Iraqi Islamic Party, which constantly pimps out the US Ambassador when it wants something?

You still haven't defended your original point.
sun bin
April 17, 2006
1:01 am
I have. Perhaps you should read a couple more lines, and let go of your prejudice. Bye.
GI Korea
April 17, 2006
4:59 am
Sun Bin doesn't know what he is talking about in regards to Iraq. He suggest that the resistance didn't start in Iraq until a year after the invasion. I was there and the resistance was in effect right after the war which hampered our reconstruction efforts. The war was over in April and by May the first reports of road side bombs were coming in and in June the bombs were a regular occurence.

Small arms ambushes on convoys and shooting down of helicopters were a regular occurence as well. Plus when the military would build something the terrorists would destroy it.

Plus the elections he mocks in Iraq were free and fair due to the blood of US servicemen that were there and the most popular man did win without US meddling because Jafari is definitely no US lacky.

Also the claims about US oil contractors in Iraq was laughable as well. The US began hiring Iraqi companies to work on oil pipe lines instead of US companies like Haliburton due to the criticism in the media and guess what happens. The Iraqi companies began to work with the criminal gangs to bomb the oil pipe lines so the Iraqi company could get payed more dollars to fix them. The criminal gang got a cut of the profits for bombing the pipes to begin with. With Haliburton you didn't have to worry about them sabotaging pipleines. Unintended consequences really suck.

Also the majority of Iraqis hate the terrorists and that is why currently there is a souring of Zarquawi in Iraq. Things are getting better in Iraq and that is what scares the left. I want Iraq to succeed and the left wants Iraq to fail, that is why there is a perception of a quagmire in America while in Iraq the terrorists have lost huge amounts of ground as the Iraqi government continues to spread their authority. The terrorists know they are in a race to break American public will power before the Iraqi governments authority becomes to overwhelming. Thus they got to keep doing bombings to get on CNN regularly.

Sun Bin just seems to make typical claims from people opposed to the war who want to see it fail just because they hate Bush, instead of hoping the US succeeds.
sun bin
April 17, 2006
12:56 pm
no, there surely were resistance.
but it became massive and uncontrollable almost a year later.

at the beginning the resistance mostly were saddam loyalist (of course there were others). but more and more people joined as it dragged on.

sure, you were in iraq. were you talking to iraqi people who opposed the occupation?

please don't make such claim as XXX does not know what he talks about. I am sure you know what you are talking about, and we all know.
GI Korea
April 17, 2006
1:48 pm
Sun Bin, I just have strong feelings when it comes to Iraq because I have such a personal stake and experience in it. Plus not only did I talk to people opposed to the occupation but some made it a hobby to shoot at me and bomb me.

The only places that didn't like the occupation initially was places filled with Saddamists like some areas in the Sunni Triangle area because they lost their money and prestige that came with Saddam being in power. Due to the de-Batthification policy (which was a stupid policy) these guys loyalty couldn't even be bought so this turned many of them into insurgents. Due to beauracracy (such as the US domestic/political fight over reconstruction contracts) and the initial insurgents the US was not able to do quick reconstruction projects and this was combined with huge unrealistic expectations and tribalism of the Iraqis. There was Iraqis that were wondering why we weren't building a subway system for them and shieks wanting their own water treatment plant because they would not accept water from a treatment plant that was in a rival shieks territory.

Than finally US mistakes in Fallujah (read the book No True Glory) combined to set a fertile ground for international terrorists backed by Syria and Iran. We fought these Jihadis during the war because Saddam brought them in, rememer Zarquawi was in Iraq before the war even started, but they came in greater number once Fallujah became a safe haven.

Despite all this the US worked through it all and the terrorists overplayed their hand when they began to primarily attack Iraqi civilians instead of the US military once soldiers and marines became better trained to track down and kill the terrorists. So civilians were easier to kill to make spectacular news headlines and then use road side bombs to keep a steady trickle of US casualties without losing terrorists fighters in a small arms fight with the soldiers. Plus the terrorists offered no alternative future for Iraqis other than a cult of death and that is why the elections were so successful. Iraqis in general just want security and jobs to feed the kids and pay the rent and they know the terrorists don't offer that.

The process of training Iraqi soldiers and turning over security responsibilities at a slow steady pace is having a cumulative effect now and the terrorists know they are running out of time.
sun bin
April 17, 2006
2:33 pm
well, after hearing this, i guess our understandings are not that far apart then, are they?
No Blood for Hubris
April 17, 2006
6:38 pm
Get the Brits to reconstitute the Gurkhas. Put the Brit-officer-led Gurkhas via the UN in charge of state security. Get rid of Gyanendra and Paras. Reconstitute democracy; let a plebiscite determine if country will be a republic or a constitutional monarchy (if there is anyone remotely acceptable around to continue it, which I don't know).
sun bin
April 17, 2006
7:44 pm
GI Korea,

i think we do not disagree on the facts. we even agree on the interpretation up to a couple months after the war.
even though our interpretation on cause and impact may diverge on events happened later on and in the future.
sun bin
April 17, 2006
7:49 pm
btw, no one wants to see a prolonged quagmire in iraq because of
1) self interest: oil price, and hence inflation and job security
2) 'national interest' if one takes stand, unless you are from an OPEC country

this is above whether you love or hate bush. there is enough embarassment already. more salt on the wound would not hurt bush anyway, but only hurt the iraqi people, the oil importers, and help the terrorists.
davesgonechina
April 18, 2006
1:58 am
Chirol said:

I agree its unlikely they will lay down their arms. The idea is that an internationally setup interim government will have enough legitimacy to convince at least some of the rebels to participate in the political process and it would probably pacify the current protestors. However, realistically, this is why I emphasized peacemaker in my post, because there will be dirty work to be done and someone will have to step up and use force against the rebels.

I agree with your position on an interim government. I also agree that there must be force to support the notion that if you don't participate, we'll either make you or destroy you. But as I said in another thread, diplomacy comes in many forms. Doubly so peacemaking. Anteing up is necessary for a larger goal that should trump the goal of crushing a non-participant guerrilla force. That larger goal is building the necessary institutions for the interim government to become full time. We're not so skilled at nurturing (building is frankly the wrong word, we want to teach a man to fish here) just look at Afghanistan and Iraq. Even better, look at our nurturing record in Latin America. We were so obsessed with party building among the elite that we empowered populist revolts. Ahmed Chalabi was the Bay of Pigs all over again.

Mind you, I also believe Curzon has a good point:

The issue is the lack of assertion of state authority in the countryside. The Maoists are filling the power vacuum, and the international community is in no position to take casualties and manage the cleanup. The best, and indeed only, option is to keep doing what we're doing"”?encourage the King at very least to "ËœSpeak Victorian,' and train the military to respect human rights ala Kaplan's observations.

I'm all for retraining the military to respect human rights. I wonder if we'll even get the opportunity to do so, but it's the right attitude. The Maoists are filling a power vacuum, and one of the key things Human Rights Watch demands they cease doing is using civilians for cover. Now responding to human shields, whether coerced or brainwashed, is a tricky one. Use of force could easily double recruitment rates - they are Maoists jungle fighers, after all. While having a strong military presence is necessary, sending them to annihilate Maoist sleepers in country villages sounds like self-defeating Vietnam combat all over again. So empower the interim government becomes even more crucial, lest we get in a quagmire.

Finally, Sun Bin and GI Korea: I think you guys are on the same page on Iraq. But Iraq was a tangent from Sun Bin's previous point about:

there are 3 options: UN, one single democratic power (US in Iraq), one (benign) dictatorship (e.g. China).

China, I think, is a red herring. The last thing the CCP wants is the added headache of mediating someone elses dispute. They are probably overconcerned, if not downright paranoid, about destabilization in Tibet but not so much that they want to SysAdmin Nepal. What about India? They've had recent personal contact with the Seven Party Alliance, one member of which is a Hindu party - a great deal of Nepalese refugees in India are Hindu. And I doubt either the US or the UN are in a position to deploy to Nepal. One is hung up with Iran, the other with appearing effective. I wouldn't be surprised, however, if China tries to be the ringmaster of an ASEAN-India-Pakistan peacekeeping mission. And if they don't try it this time, just give them a few more years.
sun bin
April 18, 2006
2:04 am
Yes, I do not think China wants more trouble there.
The only concern is Nepal not leaning too far into India (remember Sikkim). So they would support UN or N-party solution (based on NK model)
davesgonechina
April 18, 2006
2:16 am
India would be an interesting case, Sun Bin. They're inextricably bound to the US now, and I imagine the US would pressure them to not act on this one, especially since our India policy seems aimed at boxing in Iran.
Paramendra Bhagat
April 22, 2006
2:33 am
King Of India
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moorethanthis
April 22, 2006
4:28 am
From the Guardian:
King gives up power but fails to end crisis

Elsewhere in the article it mentions pressure put on the Kind by India and the U.S. The former seems to be taking the lead as regional power - a better prospect than China, but I don't think it would have much legitimacy in the case of a unilateral intervention. But if the Maoists turn against the political parties, India would be the best peacemaking option.