Today’s Geostrategic Locale of the DayTM is Gwadar Port in Pakistan along the Arabian Sea. Gwadar is a former fishing village that has been turned into a booming construction town. Why may you ask? China has been heavily investing in the port, building 12 berths to handle various kinds of ships. Why again? The answer :
Beijing was already wary of the strong U.S. military presence in the Persian Gulf, which supplies 60% of its energy needs. It was now alarmed to see the U.S. extend its reach into Asian nations that ring western China. Having no blue water navy to speak of, China feels defenseless in the Persian Gulf against any hostile action to choke off its energy supplies.
Total project cost is estimated at US$1.16 billion, and China has been willing to pony up some serious development cash so it can keep an eye on the strategic Straits of Hormuz, through which much of China’s precious Middle Eastern Oil passes. In fact Hormuz handles about 16.5 million barrels of oil transit each day (roughly 20% percent of the world’s daily oil production). Gwadar is the last of the “string of pearls”, a series of ports starting in Southeast Asia to secure oil shipping from the Middle East.
Now here is the regional spark: if China decides to place any of its naval vessels at Gwadar (China has been building naval bases and electronic intelligence-gathering facilities at other “pearls”) the Indians will have to counterbalance, and we could have a naval race in the Arabian Sea. Why would China place any military assets in the port? Well, to secure shipping lanes for its oil, but also to secure the port itself which is under attack by Balochi insurgents.
Keep your eye on Gwadar Port.
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Comments to this entry
Curzon
April 7, 2006
4:51 am
Having said that, I aldo don't like your conclusions in the last paragraph -- wouuld China really place serious military power in Pakistan to deal with meddling Balochi terrorists to such an extent that India would have to counterbalance. Pakistan can probably take care of this itself, and even if it couldn't, any Chinese military deployed in Pakistan to defend against terrorist attacks would be small and emphasized more on local security. Since India has a pretty impressive military as it is, they'd probably greet this with little more than a yawn.
sun bin
April 7, 2006
8:24 am
This is just one of the many hedges China tries to play, precisely because it knows it does not have the naval power to protect the sea route via Malacca. It would be a stretch to protect any of these ports, but a 'string of pearls' together gives it multiple option if the sea route is blocked. (for Gwadar, esp oil from Iran, for which the sea route is relatively short. and Iran/Pakistan are both friendly).
There are some great map illustrations in this Chinese blog (well, from Taiwan to be precise). He also has covered other ports such as that in Myanmar and a proposal for a Canal via the Kra Isthmus in Thailand
http://blog.yam.com/dili/archives/694266.html
sun bin
April 7, 2006
8:26 am
StrategyUnit
April 7, 2006
8:29 am
I touched on this in a past in "China as a Raising Superpower, but also Insecure? A look at Geography":http://strategyunit.blogsome.com/2005/12/22/china-as-a-raising-superpower-but-also-insecure/, but I didnt focus on India's navy but rather Japan's.
But mainly my posting centered around the idea that China has reasons to be insecure despite its size and its military:
"Surrounded by such major states (India, Japan, Russia and South Korea), we would expect China to be insecure in its own neighborhood. After all, there are US bases in Japan, Korea, Guam and formerly in Uzbekistan, along with US-India military cooperation. Is there a Chinese military base in Mexico?
So when we hear of China's growing influence in the world, just remember China's neighbor to better appreciate its own regional challenges."
-
Chirol
April 7, 2006
8:37 am
sun bin
April 7, 2006
8:57 am
IJ
April 7, 2006
11:08 am
The G8 is a rare opportunity to address concerns about both energy security and energy trade. Other fora aren't equipped to deal with the two key matters together. For example the IMF can't deal with security, and they can only venture the opinion that trade in energy is a big factor in current account imbalances around the world - causing instability in the global economy.
Curzon
April 7, 2006
12:57 pm
!http://www.geocities.co.jp/SilkRoad-Lake/2917/middleeast/gwadar02.gif!
(And long time no see!)
Younghusband
April 7, 2006
5:02 pm
You guys don't play Risk enough.
Gwadar Port represents the furthest point of potential Chinese military force projection. Look at the type of Navy China is building (ie. can't build blue water because it would look too aggressive). China has previously built SigInt stations at other ports. If they were to send a small contingent of troops to protect the port from insurgents, sending a ship along for "logistical" reasons would be the perfect justification.
Now, India has a much much better Navy than China at this point, so it wouldn't need to counterbalance for a while. But dollars to donuts they will try to keep an eye on the Reds in their region. In any case, the last thing the world needs is more ships in an area so vital to world outflows of oil.
Jing
April 7, 2006
10:24 pm
p.s. India's Navy is only much much better than China's in the minds of quixotic desis. The PLAN outnumbers, outweighs, and has a greater number of modern warships (surface and submarine) than the Indian Navy.
davesgonechina
April 8, 2006
12:02 am
Even if they did send one ship for "logistical" support, Younghusband, would a single ship really push the Indians to shift weight? Maybe if there was an increasing Chinese presence along every pearl and they had a more or less secure route to Gwadar. But then they'd get blasted for "gunboat diplomacy" while claiming a "peaceful rise". I think after embracing the populist international position that the US is hypocritical, China has to avoid the trap of being a hypocrite about calling us hypocrites. My money is on them having one boat tops, a minor one at that. They don't want to call attention to themselves.
That Asia Times article says "China insists its interest in Gwadar is purely commercial. No doubt it is hoping that the port will transform the economy of its landlocked Xinjiang province". Uh, that's jumping the gun a bit. Xinjiang has its own internal transportation network problems to work out, then the logistics chain has to rev up, and then making the haul across Pakistan has to become economically viable (somehow I'm skeptical Pakistani ground and air transport are up to it yet). Yknow its still cheaper to brings grapes in from California to Guangdong than from Turpan? More likely China wants it truly for economic reasons - to be able to get containers from eastern Chinese ports within striking distance of routes through the Strait of Hormuz. Overland logistics and transportation through Xinjiang and Central Asia is still full of problems. China and Pakistan, for instance, use different rail gauge, 1435 and 1676 respectively, although 1676 is only predominant in Pakistan - others are still in use. They have, however, opened new road links:
http://www.newkerala.com/news2.php?action=fullnews&id=30858
So I think it's fair to say their going to try to build overland routes. But that gonna be a sunk cost for a while.
sun bin
April 8, 2006
2:13 am
one of the reasons that gwadar was chosen (by pakistan) is because karachi is too close to india (and has been under threat in 1971 and 1999 conflics).
!http://210.71.56.6/ftproot/socialweb/geography/poli-geo/laitu/gwadar1.jpg!
sun bin
April 8, 2006
10:56 am
!http://www.oceanquestscuba.com/images/Hammerhead%20resized.JPG!
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