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Chirol
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Chirol

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April 2nd, 2006

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Left Holding the Bag?

The Kellogg-Briand Pact was signed on August 27, 1928 and was an international treaty “providing for the renunciation of war as an instrument of national policy.” Although it ultimately failed, it was an important milestone in international law. However, it is important to look at American policy at the time in order to understand Europeans at the present. Although the treaty was signed and ratified by the United States, the senate added a revision that the treaty must not infringe upon America’s right of self defense and that America was not obliged to enforce the treaty by taking action against those who violated it. Thus, we signed off on a treaty adding that we didn’t have to enforce it and moreso, left it up to the whim’s of the administration as to whether America would act. What one administration may decide to do, the other may not. During the 20’s and 30’s, America had the very dangerous tendency to see such treaties and the principles behind them as self-implementing.

62 nations signed the treaty renoucning war which was to a certain extent, quite a success for 1928, however, as noted, there was not only no enforcement mechanism, but no will to enforce the treaty in the first place. While aggression by any country was supposed to be dealt with by the international community, in reality, nothing was done. The Japanese invasion of Manchuria is a prime example. While the intentions were right, the treaty, like international organizations such as the UN, was based on the false assumption that all countries would have an equal interest in dealing with threats, i.e. would feel equally threatened. Why should Czechoslovakia send troops to Manchuria, which at the time wasn’t feasible anyway (and probably still isn’t).

It has been said that the history of the 20th century can be summed up as the Anglo-Saxon countries saving the rest of the world from itself. The 21st century seems to be playing out in much the same way with the US left holding the bag so to say, as the (often) sole defender of international law and order. With Iraq being responsible for a long list of UNSC resolutions and its failure to comply with many of them, the world still demanded justification for regime change. With Iran blatantly defying the Non-proliferation treaty and threatening to use force (incuding terrorism) if they are punished for their bad behavior, the world again seems to be satisfied to sit back and criticize the few who demand action. With Europe almost never willing to follow through and enforce such issues, the US and its few reliable and trustworthy allies such as the UK are left to do the dirty work and to be criticized for doing so.

Europe’s very few achievements consist of taking over or participating in US led operations which they only later joined. Even civil war and ethnic cleansing in the Balkans wasn’t enough to make Europeans lift a finger. While they ultimately send a few soldiers to Bosnia, they weren’t even allowed to actively end the war and oversaw some of the worst atrocities in it such as Srebnica. After the violent demise of Yugoslavia, Europe still couldn’t be bothered with intervening, allowing monsters such as Slobodan Milosovic (no doubt enjoying a front row seat in hell) a free hand to kill. To their credit, at least the Germans stepped up and actively bombed Serbia and Kosovo to help end the violence, all spearheaded by the United States of course.

The fact remains that though the US is naturally not beyond criticism or without error and occasional sin, many of its critics fail to see the irony in their charges of unilateralism and violating so-called international law. Criticisms of America tend not to highlight our misdeeds but rather international failure to deal with problems that the US was left to try and fix.

It is therefore essential that the US and its allies move against Iran. With the UNSC having given Iran 30 days (though as usual without any potential consequences), the time is rapdily approaching. North Korea already having set a bad precedent means we must let the world know the sheriff is back in town is absolutely crucial if critical pillars of international stability such as the Non-proliferation agreement are allowed to be broken. With Europe still acting like a battered housewife with its post-WWII pacifist illusions and afraid to act, the United States is left alone to carry the burden of maintaining international order. Voting in one’s national interest is one thing, squabbling that allows bad actors to defy international law and endanger their region and the world is another.

Are the immediate consequences of a probable Iranian retaliation and international condemnation worse than dealing the NPT a death blow leading to more nuclear armed states unstable and dangerous countries?

UPDATE: Marc Schulman of American Future had this to add in a recent post:

If these reports are accurate, we have two choices. The first is to allow ourselves to be blackmailed by not taking military action as a last resort to prevent Iran from going nuclear. If we allow ourselves to be blackmailed by an Iran that is not yet a nuclear power, imagine how easy it would be for the mullahs to blackmail us after Iran has the Bomb. The second is to serve notice that, if our civilians are attacked, we will respond in kind. As distasteful as the second option is, it’s better than the first. The long-standing policy of the U.S. is that we don’t negotiate with terrorists. A corollary to this policy should be that we will not allow our national security policies to be determined by the threat of terrorist actions.

Comments to this entry

Marc Schulman
April 2, 2006
9:42 pm
Thanks for the link. You and I are definitely on the same page, and for the same reasons.
Dan tdaxp
April 2, 2006
10:08 pm
International law (in the security domain) is junk. It's a lie that we use to occasionally humiliate people we dislike. Not one American, or Japanese, or German, should die to defend it. Or even be unduly annoyed. Security IL is not worth it.

A nuclear Iran's effect on mideast politics, connectivity, American power, etc, are all serious parts of the discussion. Iran's (lack of) kowtowing to the UN is not -- though again, it may be a useful story we use.

Like the sudden shock & horror of Kim Jun Il's counterfeiting.
R. Elgin
April 3, 2006
12:41 am
After listening to Chuck Hagel last night, I'm almost certain that Iran will end up being the poster child for the first ever, pre-emptive nuclear strike taken upon a country, purely because of its implied threat to the rest of the world -- through both terrorism and nuclear weaponry. After sanctions fail -- and they probably will -- the gloves will have to come off. The current president of Iran has pretty much assured that Israel will strike first, simply by his comments about wiping Israel off the face of the earth, too. Since the people and government of Iran are one (it seems), the people will have only a few years to act before events go to far.

It would be terrible for such to happen but I would rather see every large city and military base in Iran nuked before I would see that country with nuclear weapons, such is the threat.
IJ
April 3, 2006
1:51 pm
The US Secretary of State "spoke last week":http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/WO0603/S00555.htm at the American Society of International Law. Among the subjects that were covered included the different interpretations of international law, the need in nations for constitutional checks to stop authoritarianism, Russia and Iran.
Elizabeth
April 3, 2006
2:19 pm
"It has been said that the history of the 20th century can be summed up as the Anglo-Saxon countries saving the rest of the world from itself."

It has also been said that Anglo-Saxons have spent the last 100 / 150 years doing nothing but defending their own empires, and using quasi-racist justifications such as, "They can't manage on their own" (meaning: if we let them do what they want, it might not be in our interests). Luckily for the Anglo-Saxons, they've won, through wit and cunning, and I suppose it will be your interpretation that prevails.

"Even civil war and ethnic cleansing in the Balkans wasn't enough to make Europeans lift a finger."

Funny that you should choose this massive failure as a foreign-policy achievement. Yes, the US and the UN are now protecting people there, and it's more than likely that lives have been saved. But in terms of ensuring a long-term peace, it's a joke. Like Afghanistan, which is now effectively under the control of Russia (via Uzbekistan and Dostum), Iran (via Ismail Khan and others) and Pakistan (via the Pashtuns- but only weakly), all the US has managed to do is to keep things stable enough to protect its own interests. Gee, I wonder why the EU didn't want to join.

"Criticisms of America tend not to highlight our misdeeds but rather international failure to deal with problems that the US was left to try and fix."

I had to laugh at this one. Poor little America, in charge of saving the rest of us from the lack of capitalism sponsored by US companies. Why don't more people have more sympathy for the Empire? Nobody asked for America's help. It's portrayal of itself as a martyr for peace is amusing until one realizes how many interventions have failed to produce the humanitarian goods required.

"It would be terrible for such to happen but I would rather see every large city and military base in Iran nuked before I would see that country with nuclear weapons, such is the threat."

Well, you would say that, since nobody wants to be on the receiving end of a nuclear bomb. But has it occured to anybody that perhaps the US is simply defending its own interests, as is Iran (both of which have shown tendencies to dismiss the NPT when necessary), and that neither is necessarily on the side of good here?

I could respect Coming Anarchy for saying that the ultimate purpose of defense policy is to defend the interests of one's own people, through whatever systems are available, and because Iran poses a threat to the US, however imminent, the US should attack. Couching the argument in some thinly-veiled moralistic "we're saving the world and nobody appreciates us" argument, however, combined with utilitarian premises sneaked in here and there to justify the deaths of Iranians, is not convincing except to the few who believe that the real purpose of an Empire is to save the world.

For those of us that take a more- dare I say realistic? or at least realist- view, this is not persuasive at all.
IJ
April 3, 2006
7:40 pm
The need for intervention in a sovereign country will continue to be arguable, until the UN is prepared to adjudicate one way or the other. Lately, there's been a lot of sitting on the fence - especially with Sudan's Darfur, where the US claims genocide is taking place. The chances of R2P being implemented are currently about zero.
Chirol
April 3, 2006
9:27 pm
Elizabeth: The fact is that America is the only country with the power and global capability to maintain order. Regardless of whether or not national interest is involved (and even when it is that's hardly a criticism or a surprise for that matter), the US is the only country able and usually willing to to follow through. For recent examples see Liberia. When the Germans agreed to help in Afghanistan, they couldn't even get there. First they had to go off and find and build a base in Uzbekistan. The only other country close to measuring up is the UK.

I think you overestimate or misunderstand the extent to which I'm making a moral argument. I'm simply stating how things are and the problem we face, not to mention the irony of so much criticism. We both agree the US is justified in defending its intererests, but are you saying that global stability and peace in important regions doesn't fall within our interests?
snow
April 4, 2006
7:11 am
Elizabeth, what would you suggest as a better way to go about international interventions than the US approach?
Elizabeth
April 4, 2006
12:48 pm
Chirol:

It's fair enough that perhaps I overestimated the extent to which you make a moral argument. The phrases you use have moral / obligatory overtones, though, and it is such language that is often used when one is trying to justify imperialism.

"...saving the world from itself...", "...left holding the bag...", "...the US and its trustworthy allies [trustworthy to defend the US interest, though not always, for example, to refrain from torture, genocide, etc. etc.]... to do the dirty work...", "not without error or occasional sin..." (italics mine), "left alone to carry the burden of maintaining international order".

This kind of language does not imply an endorsement of imperialism for its own sake, necessary violence in one's self-interest or in self-defence, or anything like that. It reminds one of Kipling's "white man's burden", of justifications for the greater good used by empires for ages. Note that I'm not defending European foreign policy- though I don't think it's nearly as cowardly as portrayed here, it's rather in their own self-interest, and much more clever.

You ask whether I don't think that global stability and peace in "important regions" doesn't fall within US interests. Of course they do. But I have no evidence that the US foreign policy decisions over the past 40 years generally support global stability and peace. Usually US foreign policy is geared towards short-term interests (hence US support of fundamentalism across the Muslim world to oppose communism, US support of unstable dictatorships in Latin America, and other macro-policies that help business in the short run but usually ferment opposition and violence in the long run). Moreover, again, I would emphasize that if it's self-interest we are talking about, there's no need to run Europe into the ground over it. Of course they aren't defending our business interests. Why on earth would they? Because we "saved their asses from Hitler"? In that case, I guess they should be licking Putin's boots as well.

To both Chirol and Snow, I would say that the US could certainly improve its approach by doing just what Chirol suggests in the last sentence of his comment, which would be to seriously consider how to make the world a more stable and peaceful place. Continuing to interfere with democratically elected governments, supporting violent and fundamentalist groups around the world, refusing to even consider looking at the top three grievances voiced by those people most likely to become terrorists (a whole Palestine, reduced subsidies on agricultural goods by rich countries, and US troops out of other countries)- this does not support peace and stability in the long-term. Defining common interests and letting countries deal with their own problems (stop supporting regimes, for one thing) would be a big improvement on US foreign policy.
Gollios
April 4, 2006
2:43 pm
Elizabeth: I not so sure that allowing the state of Israel to be eliminated and sending the Yankees back to fortress America would lead to a more stable and peaceful world. As for farm subsidies, the U.S. should do more, but it already has a much better record than the EU. However, none of these actions would materially benefit those in the unstable parts of the world who are likely to become terrorists.

One question: Do you think the use of force is ever justified for hummanitarian ends? If so, must it be UN forces with a security council mandate? What if the security council is deadlocked?

Regarding your earlier comment on Iran. Yes, Iran and the U.S. are both persuing their own interests. However, the U.S. is not threatening to 'wipe off the map' a UN member state. Nor are they executing women for adultury. And for all of the corruption in the USA, it doesn't even come close to the Mullah's kleptocracy.
davesgonechina
April 4, 2006
6:18 pm
"It has been said that the history of the 20th century can be summed up as the Anglo-Saxon countries saving the rest of the world from itself."

It's also been said that the Anglo-Saxon countries are insufferable self-aggrandizing pricks. This is Boxer Rebellion logic e.g. "these Chinese cannot govern themselves". Never mind the conflicts of the 20th century where the rest of the world has told the Anglo-Saxon world to please get the hell out (a good chunk of African and Latin American conflicts), or those times the Anglo-Saxon world had to save the world from other paragons of Western civilization such as the Nazis.

The U.S. covers with the fig leaf of international law when it suits its interests - like most, if not all, other nations. You mention that on Iraq the US was the only one to enforce UNSC resolutions against Saddam. But by doing so unilaterally didn't it upset the "order" by which the international community governs itself and gives meaning to international law? International law is good when it supports our policy goals, but if it contradicts our ideological beliefs, then international law is bad (see: International Criminal Court). You invoke the non-proliferation treaty with Iran - but we can make an exception for India. International law seems to work more like the Pirates Code - not rules, more like guidelines really.

I can understand your frustration with Europe. It can be a smug place at times - but no more smug sounding than claiming Anglo-Saxon countries exhaust themselves preventing smaller countries from running with scissors. On Iran, I fail to see how their acquiring a nuclear weapon will allow them to so easily "blackmail us" as Schulman suggests. Is Mutually Assured Destruction not an issue for the mullahs? I find this hard to believe, given how much they enjoy wielding political power. The assertion that Iran is unstable seems to be based on the assumption that we will definitely act to destabilize them. Our saber-rattling has been, unfortunately, pushing the progressive youth who are a majority in Iran towards nationalism and solidarity with the mullahs whom they generally don't agree with. And finally, Iran's missile range doesn't threaten the US yet - but the threat might push Europe to act more aggressively just as you wish they would. Be careful what you wish for.

To Gollios, I would point out that the hyperbole of "wiping Israel off the map" aside, none of this has the ring of international law. 39 countries don't recognize Israel, again I don't see Iran nuking them unless they want Israel to MAD them, and there's plenty of countries that treat women like shit - oh yeah, India again on that list.

I would suggest a thorough review of Elizabeth's list of phrases to reconsider. I fail to see what separates the US from the rest of the animal kingdom.
Elizabeth
April 4, 2006
7:09 pm
Gollios,

"I not so sure that allowing the state of Israel to be eliminated"

First of all, Israel has the fifth-largest army in the world. Second of all, most Arab states are protected not by their own armies, but by the US army. Removing the US army would leave them very vulnerable, totally unable to attack Israel. Third of all, only Iraq had the power to eliminate Israel- Iran is still quite weak, militarily, overall. I am not so sure that eliminating the US presence in the Middle East would lead to Israel's elimination: it's not in the interests of the countries around Israel, it would be practically very difficult and it's not certain they could manage even a proglonged ground war, and finally, I'm sick of this justification that Israel can do whatever it wants and the US must defend Israel against Arabs because otherwise there will be a kind of second holocaust. Genocide against any nation is a terrible thing, but we cannot justify indefinite violence (deadly or otherwise) against millions forever just to prevent what some people believe might turn into war. That's the typical excuse for fascism and I don't buy it.

"As for farm subsidies, the U.S. should do more, but it already has a much better record than the EU."

Well, the EU overall, but if we take the countries separately, then the US comes in around the middle. Anyway, I'm not praising the EU for its magnificently benign foreign policy, either. Comparing the US to the EU to justify its imperialistic actions is like saying that Keanau Reeves is a bad actor but Madonna is worse. We're not looking to be "not horrible", the aim is to be successful.

"However, none of these actions would materially benefit those in the unstable parts of the world who are likely to become terrorists."

I don't agree. A Palestinian state built with Israel in or near the 1967 borders would make life infinitely more tolerable for the Palestinians, since they could move freely in their own country, on their own land; reduced subsidies all-round means freeer trade and better results for all; and reduced US troop presence supporting undemocratic regimes could lead to more democracy and, if all goes well, better governance and thus material improvements in people's lives.

"Do you think the use of force is ever justified for hummanitarian ends?"

I believe that self-defence is always justified; that the use of non-deadly force (i.e. force which does not directly lead to the death of anyone) is nearly always justifiable (an example of non-deadly force would be the use of prisons); and that the use of force is justified only in an ethical system which puts survival of one and one's allies / friends / relations ahead of everything else. I accept that such an ethical system, i.e. a Machiavellian outlook, is necessary for physical survival in the world and I don't begrudge anyone for it. I would like to say that humanitarian interventions could be justified, but this requires a utilitarian outlook on human lives (i.e. the sum of lives saved justifies the loss of any number less than that, because lives are quantifiable) and I just can't believe that's the case.

"What if the security council is deadlocked?"

Don't mistake my anti-imperialism for a pro-UN stance. I believe in diplomacy, not the UN. I've seen too much of what they do on the ground and their hiring practices. What a joke.

"However, the U.S. is not threatening to "Ëœwipe off the map' a UN member state. Nor are they executing women for adultury. And for all of the corruption in the USA, it doesn't even come close to the Mullah's kleptocracy."

Let me be clear. I'm not proposing an Islamo-Persian empire here. I don't believe that the Iranians have the strength, so practically, I think it's silly for big countries to worry about it. I think the US needs to carefully weigh the risks of intervening with force, imposing sanctions, or sneakily creating problems for Iran (something the US never does, because we are not smart enough to outwit Asians- see Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, the southern NIS, and on and on). Force, to my mind, would have the adverse effect of (a) increasing hopelessness among poor Muslims, and thus reducing the number of things that potential terrorists have to lose and increasing the number of potential suicide-bombers, (b) thousands of people dying who otherwise might have lived, (c) solidifying world opinion against the US and its allies, thus raising the stakes for every subsequent intervention, and (d) wasting billions of taxpayer dollars that could have otherwise been used to save lives (funny how other uses of money are never counted in the cost-effectiveness analysis: how many pre-natal care programs can you fund for the price of a Stealth?). And why? Because we sincerely believe that before Ahmed-jaan is kicked out through elections (completely possible), he will not only manage to get Iran the bomb, but will also use it to destroy the state of Israel and all of the Palestinians who live therein? What foolishness. But by making these threats against Iran, the US is increasing Iranian's fear of outsiders and helping him consolidate his nationalist, poor voter base.
Gollios
April 4, 2006
8:37 pm
Elizabeth:

Thanks for the excellent rebuttal...you brought up some excellent points. As you mentioned, the U.S. has protected several of the Arab states from the Israeli Army, and (at least conventionaly) they have more to fear from Israel than vice-versa. But doesn't that make a case for, rather than against, American involvement? If Eisenhower hadn't called off the French, Russians, and Israelis in the '57 war Israel may have held on to much more of Suez, and it may have set a precedent for formal annexation rather than occupation of the West Bank and Gaza. If that had happened, there would be no hope for a Palestinian state. I do not think he (Eisenhower) would have had this influence had we not been militarily and economically involved in Europe and the Middle East. Currently, if Israel gets especially twitchy about Iran's possibly nuclear program, who else besides the U.S. would be able to prevent them from a strike?

A counter example would be Meghistu's Ethiopia. President Carter suspended aid to his government due to their human rights violations. The U.S. lost influence, and that left the door open for the Soviets and their proxies, leading to horrible economic & political policies that led to mass starvation and a stunted state. America may have made the morally correct decision in not dealing with a murderous thug, but there is the possibility that continued engagement would have saved lives.

Your argument for American disengagement does leave out one factor...what about other countries with global ambitions? You mentioned that Russia is now extraordinarily influential in Afghanistan through Uzbekistan and Dostrum. Would their influence grow or recede were the U.S. to stick to domestic concerns? What about China's ambitions? Would this be better or worse for the rest of the world? Russia certainly has not shows itself to be the most caring of overlords in either the Czarist or Soviet eras, and while China is an unknown, the experience of the Tibetans should give us some pause.

As for Iran and Ahmedinijad, I'll have to mull over what you wrote. The argument that he needs the U.S. as an enemy to solidify his control is extremely valid. One nuke will not destroy Israel. However, what if he means what he says, and is not wanting to expand his influence in the region and the international order but to smash the existing one? I realize this ties into your comment about 'justifying violence [I would also add 'the threat of violence' on which diplomacy sometimes depends] to prevent what some fear may turn into a war' but thinking about the worst case scenario is what statesmen in any country have to do.

As a side note, a good friend is currently in Shiraz, Iran visiting family. I can't wait to hear his report when he gets back.

One more point. Regarding comparing the EU and US to Keanu Reeves and Madonna, all I can say is:

...whoa...

I'm off to Kabala class now. Keep up the good work, both here and on your blog.

Davesgonechina, on your comment:

"It's also been said that the Anglo-Saxon countries are insufferable self-aggrandizing pricks."

Point well taken! However, is there or has their been a country with global or regional influence or aspirations that wasn't? Obviously the US and Britain are out. What about The Ottomans? Abyssiads? Dutch? French? Germans? Portugese? Aztec?
Elizabeth
April 4, 2006
8:57 pm
Gallios,

It's a pleasure discussing this with you.

Regarding Israel and the Palestinian state, I'm not on anyone's side. If they both want states, fine. If neither do, that's also fine. What I don't like is interference in other people's affairs. The US support of Israel, and control of nearby Arab countries, means that the cards are stacked against the Palestinians. Naturally it will be hard to even things out now. I would not have supported Russian and French intervention back then, and I wouldn't support American intervention now. However, if all countries could get together and sit at the table and say, "Look, this isn't working. We screwed up. The Palestinians want a contiguous, sovereign state. Israel, you already have one and a state is not going to drive you "into the sea". Let's hear what you want and get them their state already, let them open their airport again and have done with it", that would at least be better than bombing all the neighboring countries to bits to protect Israel.

Regarding Russia, they don't need the US to recede to keep power. They are using anti-Americanism and American interventionism to keep their influence strong as far as they can, by playing a counterweight, the "Asian-European" card. I don't know if their role would increase or decrease with reduced American power, but it would change. The Russians are actually fairly good masters in Asia, mainly because they know the "Asiatic mind", and play the game the Americans try to play (which is control by proxy local Khan) very successfully. The Russians know how to play with Dostum- the Americans do not (though I would not say that either could control them, the Americans are much more likely to overplay or overestimate their hand, and fail).

I do think that to some extent, however, you overestimate America's success in ruling by proxy. Life in Qatar is better for many than life was in Estonia, but Qatar is much richer than Estonia and the US is richer than Russia. In terms of freedoms for the average person, well, you'd have a hard time proving how great things are. And I think most Russians would compare the terrible treatment of Chechens to the American treatment of Native Americans, and so on. Your statement about the Ottomans, Abyssiads, etc. is very apt- I would compare the US empire with such empires myself. Many good results, many bad results, and much self-justification in the name of morality, God, and humanity.

Regarding the worst case scenario- you do have to consider it, but you also have to consider likelihood of any scenario. It would be absurd to plan our economy assuming that any minute, there could be an attack of mass panic brought on by something totally irrational. It is likewise absurd to plan our foreign policy like that. We need a contingency plan for such situations, not to build our whole foreign policy around it. Otherwise it becomes self-fulfilling prophecy (again, like in economics).
davesgonechina
April 4, 2006
11:56 pm
Gallios asked:

Point well taken! However, is there or has their been a country with global or regional influence or aspirations that wasn't? Obviously the US and Britain are out. What about The Ottomans? Abyssiads? Dutch? French? Germans? Portugese? Aztec?

My point was rather that its ridiculous to sum up the "history of the 20th century" as anything, let alone the Anglo-Saxon countries "saving the world from itself". This from the imaginary cultural group that first developed and have solely deployed nuclear weapons. I guess my answer to your question is that other Empires were blind to many of their failings, the British especially, which is even more reason not to cast history as being the story of Empire. When the Empire only listens to and tells story about itself, it becomes ineffective. More important is that summing up history is usually rhetorical nonsense.
Gollios
April 5, 2006
1:16 am
"When the Empire only listens to and tells story about itself, it becomes ineffective."

Replace Empire with culture or nation and you have an important point. However, how much effort has been expended to learn about other cultures and history by the West? There is a long tradition of scholarship that has been of great benefit to the world's knowledge.

How much of this has been done in the Arab/Muslim world? I believe that is part of the problem we face today. Sometimes it seems that only our worst developments and ideas have been imported, i.e. Nazi anti-semitism, rather than the West's failures. Tragedy is the key to avoiding the mistakes of others.

BTW, I was hoping for at least a chuckle on the Keanu Reeves line. I commented on an earlier post that John Wayne as Genghis was the worst casting ever. I was dead wrong. It was Keanu Reeves as Jonathan Harker in 'Bram Stoker's Dracula.' How in the hell did Copolla let him say Budapest with a California accent?

Elizabeth, regarding the progression of the former Soviet states post-dissolution: I suspect you have a lot of insight since your household has both Americans and Tajiks. Could you post on it on your blog? Pretty please?
snow
April 5, 2006
8:22 am
Elizabeth, I just wanted to comment about some of your points. You do make many good points in your post, but I just will focus on a short section. Sorry for my long-winded and rambling ideas. Anyway, for what it's worth (not much)...

"I would say that the US could certainly improve its approach by doing just what Chirol suggests in the last sentence of his comment, which would be to seriously consider how to make the world a more stable and peaceful place."

I think the problem here is that such a statement is too broad and generalized, so almost any action could be claimed as being for stability and peace. After all, this is the claim of Bush on Iraq.

"Continuing to interfere with democratically elected governments,"

I agree here, in general, though again, it seems that circumstances may dictate interference at times. If they don't act, they believe that they will lose out, so they go in, the peanut gallery be damned (admittedly, the opinions of others and perceptions are important too, and I think Bush et al have made mistakes in seemingly not caring about such things so much-in other words, I think Bush has failed in the PR department over many issues). Should the US refrain from interfering with any decisions or actions of a democratically elected governement? There have to be exceptions, which puts decision-making back into a gray area of murky decisions and hidden agendas.

"supporting violent and fundamentalist groups around the world,"

Again, in hindsight, this has proven to be a mistake, but sometimes, to reach what the US leadership sees as a greater good (of more benefit to themselves) they sometimes get in bed with nasties. Is it better to have no influence whatsoever with a bad guy and have Russia or China taking full advantage, or is it better to choke down the contempt and shake hands, so as to stay ahead of enemies?

"refusing to even consider looking at the top three grievances voiced by those people most likely to become terrorists (a whole Palestine,"

I don't know what you expect the US to do here. It seems the US has been quite involved with the Israeli-Palestanian question for many years. The US can't impose a solution. They can push the Israelis in this direction, but a Jewish state at the pre-1967 borders would be very difficult to defend. The US can't and won't insist that this important ally put itself in a less defendible position. Why should the US do this? To get a pat on the back and look good to all the world who hates the Jews? The US considers itself to be a good friend to Israel and won't do anything to hurt its friend. It would be good for the Palestinians to have a whole country, and it would benefit the US in that there would be less reason to blame the Americans for the bad situation there. I would love to see a two state solution, but I'm not sure that that would really solve anything. It could weaken Israel and provide a strategically powerful platform for the enemies of Israel to develop ways to destroy Israel. It's easy for us outside the region to insist on a two-state solution, but why should the Jews go for something that could weaken them strategically? So back to the original idea of the US doing more here. Aren't you saying the US should get out of interfering in the affairs of other countries? The US is quite involved here and more involvement isn't going to make anybody happier. Unless perhaps they abandon their friends, the Israelis.

"reduced subsidies on agricultural goods by rich countries,"

Yes, the US should reduce, but the farm lobby is huge. Every move that the US makes has behind it a huge number of competing agendas, even within a single administration, so its very difficult to move on such things as this, where the lobby is powerful.

" and US troops out of other countries)-"

I think that most of the countries in which the US has a military presence, the government has asked the US to put troops there. The US may have done the asking, but the governments have said yes, for whatever benefits they see from such an arrangement.

"Defining common interests and letting countries deal with their own problems (stop supporting regimes, for one thing) would be a big improvement on US foreign policy."

I like this idea. It seems that this new pact that Chirol talked of is making a stab in this direction, though I'm not optimistic on group decisions and group action. All in all, I think I agree with you on the idea of going the whole nine yards in terms of diplomacy, but I'm not so sure about the idea of doing everything for stability and peace. That's too weak a reason for any country to act and would have to be framed in terms of the interests of the country to warrant serious action (although Bush framed Iraq in somewhat this way, it certainly was not the only reason for going in).
Elizabeth
April 10, 2006
4:40 pm
Gallios, regarding your request, there will be a lot more of that soon as I return to Tajikistan for a long stay. However, I wouldn't say that what I have is insight as much as access to details that are frequently ignored. Someone here once mentioned that they didn't like Kaplan because he doesn't have a theory: just lots of knowledge about people and countries. That's what I like, and my observations tend to be along a similar line (though obviously less insightful and more poorly written).

Snow, to answer some ramblings:

"'I would say that the US could certainly improve its approach...' I think the problem here is that such a statement is too broad and generalized"

Well, I meant to have defined that in other parts of the post. Impoved diplomacy, paying attention to others, etc. Yes, it is general, but the point was just to say stop bombing people without just cause and try diplomacy.

"it seems that circumstances may dictate interference at times...in hindsight, this has proven to be a mistake, but sometimes, to reach what the US leadership sees as a greater good (of more benefit to themselves) they sometimes get in bed with nasties"

My point is that you shouldn't commit a crime for some supposed utopia or greater good in the future. It's almost never worth it, you can't predict the future, and most "successes" of this sort were re-written by he victors. Always try to minimize harm in the short term. An uncertain future can be used to justify anything.

"I don't know what you expect the US to do here."

Stop spporting the Israeli army and government financially, stop buying from it, until they act decently, and stop blocking attempts at a two-state solution through he UN. Stop pretending that the Palestinians have been offered anything but an institutionalized ghetto archipelago.


"but the farm lobby is huge"

I think you mean, "the farm lobby is rich". In fact, many small farmers don't get subsidies, so the actual number of voters who are directly affected by his is small. But the farm lobby pays for advertising. We live in something ever-nearer to oligarchy. I know. But it's still awful.

"I think that most of the countries in which the US has a military presence, the government has asked the US to put troops there."

Certainly true. It is also true that the USSR had official and repeated invitations from Afghanistan, Czechoslovakia, Bulgaria, Ukraine, all three Baltic states, and many more countries. It is widely understood in such smal nations that elections are not always fair and that leaders may sell their nations for personal benefits or perceived other benefits. Russia is still in Chechnya by will of that republic's government. If you invade a country, destroy the government, and install an interim administration which depends on your presence to stay in power, it's not really shocking that they keep begging you to stay. But that kind of invitation should be taken up reluctantly, not forced.

"why should the Jews go for something that could weaken them strategically?"

I would like to point out that many Jews are opposed to the wall, the horrible treatment of Palestinians, and many other crimes committed by the state of Israel. These are not "self-hating" Jews, but people who think that Israel is safer with happy neighbours. It is not Jews vs. Palestinians, except in te mind of extremist-nationlists. It is extremist-nationalists versus peaceful people who would just like to live a decent life without being harassed on a daily basis.
snow
April 11, 2006
6:43 am
"say stop bombing people without just cause and try diplomacy."

Without just cause? I think the US government, at least in their own minds, has had plenty of cause for doing any bombing. At the same time, I think the US puts plenty of effort into diplomacy. They are just more willing than other western countries to go for the military option, and I admit that scares me at times, such as the possibility over Iran, but diplomacy can lead to neverending talk and no action.

"My point is that you shouldn't commit a crime for some supposed utopia or greater good in the future."

I'm not sure what you're referring to about commiting a crime, but I think the US has acted with the idea that this is the best way to get a positive outcome for the US. I agree that poor intelligence and other miscalculations and other stupidity have caused plenty of failures, but that means they should improve in all these areas.

"Stop spporting the Israeli army and government financially, stop buying from it, until they act decently, and stop blocking attempts at a two-state solution through he UN. Stop pretending that the Palestinians have been offered anything but an institutionalized ghetto archipelago."

Certainly the Israel military has tended to go overboard at times, but the Jews are friends. The US shouldn't abandon its friends. The Jews are so widely hated, what kind of message would that send to Israel's numerous enemies, if the US cut off all support and gave some sharp rebukes to Israel? Would Israel then come round and act 'decently'? They may act more 'timidly' in fighting militants, but why should the Jews do anything that weakens themselves strategically and militarily? As far as a two state solution is concerned, what is wrong with what is being proposed now, besides the settlements in the west Bank(and I don't think its realistic to expect that the Israelis will pull out of these, not the biggest ones, anyway)? What was wrong with the solution proposed to Arafat before?

"We live in something ever-nearer to oligarchy."

Yes, the US is far from perfect, but can you tell me of a better place?

"It is widely understood in such smal nations that elections are not always fair and that leaders may sell their nations for personal benefits or perceived other benefits."

So the US should make sure that elections and the political scene is all fair and free before agreeing to enter a country after being asked? I dare say that by that critieria, the US would not be able to enter hardly any countries at all. Why should the US act in such a way when it would give a strategic advantage to its enemies who have no problem with working with the most nasty regimes?

"peaceful people who would just like to live a decent life without being harassed on a daily basis."

Certainly there are plenty of people in Israel and Palestine who want this. But how is it to be achieved? The political leadership of all strong Palestinian parties have the goal of destroying Israel. Even the PLA has kept that goal. Who are the Israelis supposed to deal with to create a land of peace?
Elizabeth
April 17, 2006
4:12 am
Snow,

Sorry for the delay.

"Without just cause? I think the US government, at least in their own minds, has had plenty of cause for doing any bombing."

In their own minds? Does that really count? And 'plenty of cause' is not the same as 'plenty of just cause'. I'm sure Saddam Hussein had plenty of cause to massacre Kurds (namely, they wanted to break away from his country), and that in his own mind, this was just. But he was wrong, anyway, just like the US would be wrong to kill thousands of Iranians on suspicion of future mal intentions.

"I'm not sure what you're referring to..."

Actually I was referring to the thousands of crimes, military and otherwise, that have been committed in the name of some greater good in the future. The massacres on both sides during the Vietnam war, the millions killed in Ukraine, the crimes committed in Crime and Punishment and so on.

"Can you tell me of a better place?"

For being extremely rich and making money without payin taxes? No. For having a baby? 40 other countries, including all of Western and Central and half of Eastern European countries that made the list (including, for example, Croatia) had better maternal and infant mortality rates than the United States. University is free in Germany and crime is lower in Malaysia. I personally enjoy the cultural richness of Russia much more than in the United States. France has better food- even the Chinese food in France is better.

"So the US should make sure that elections... before agreeing to enter a country...?"

I don't think it's the responsibility of the US to make sure elections are free and fair. The basic rule I would use is, don't mess around in other people's security and other affairs for supposedly "humanitarian" purposes, i.e. for some vague greater good in the future. This is because the humanitarian ends are almost never achieved, and even then are rarely directly attributable to the military action.

Now, if the US wants to do something in its own interest, it should just admit it. It should say, 'We want to control the Middle East for oil, transport, and other issues, because we can make more money that way, so live with it." None of this "humanitarian" "white man's burden" "democratization" nonsense. It's the justification that I object to, morally, not acting in one's self-interest.

"What was wrong with the solution proposed to Arafat before?"

1) It wasn't a full state solution, despite what the US media said.
2) The semi-state was not contiguous, i.e. it was a kind of ghetto archipelago that dotted Israel and would have still kept Palestinians under Israeli security control.
3) It confirmed 100% of the 1967 territory grabbed by Israel in a non-defensive war that was not recognized as just by anybody.

That's what was wrong with it.
davesgonechina
April 18, 2006
1:21 am
Snow said:

They [the US] are just more willing than other western countries to go for the military option, and I admit that scares me at times, such as the possibility over Iran, but diplomacy can lead to neverending talk and no action.

I've heard this one before, and the question I have is "what do you call action?" Diplomacy can be and is many different forms of action. It is not simply talking, but economics, ideology, public outreach, medicine, education, academic exchange, cultural forums and more. It seems awfully rhetorical to imply that talk can lead nowhere, and it obscures the fact that action can be even more harmful. I understand the desire to do something, but maybe you should reconsider your definition of "something". Talking is praised in the cases of Kissinger meeting Mao, Reagan meeting Gorbachev, Britain and the IRA, and countless other situations. By framing talking as "non-action", you've laid out what is essentially the basic foundation of pre-emptive warfare - diplomacy is pointless.
snow
April 18, 2006
1:29 am
"By framing talking as "non-action"Â?, you've laid out what is essentially the basic foundation of pre-emptive warfare "“ diplomacy is pointless."

davesgonechina, I totally disagree that anyone, including Bush et al think that diplomacy is pointless. I'm a great believer in diplomacy myself, but I don't believe that military force should ever be taken off the table. As far as neverending talk and no action is concerned, I would say that the Sudan is a good example of countries talking and doing nothing. Sometimes military or other action is warranted.
snow
April 18, 2006
1:37 am
"In their own minds? Does that really count?"

Elizabeth, I believe they fully feel that their actions are justified. Humanitarian reasons may be a factor, but they are rarely if ever the only factor as economic and many other things are factored in.

"Now, if the US wants to do something in its own interest, it should just admit it. It's the justification that I object to, morally, not acting in one's self-interest."

I agree, but why not just read between the lines? I generally like Bush, but I certainly don't believe what I hear in sound bites and in the news coming from the administration. I never take what Bush says at face value, but I also don't believe the left with their agenda and propensity to exaggerate at least as much as Bush does. All politicians seem to do this kind of thing, using 'nice' talk to cover whatever they're doing.
snow
April 18, 2006
8:54 am
And sorry, Elizabeth, I can't really discuss the Israel-Palestine question as I don't know enough about it. I do think that Israel is acting in what it thinks is its best interests, though many do disagree with the choices they have and will make.
Elizabeth
April 18, 2006
9:25 am
Snow- My comments above make it clear that I object mainly to the humanitarian justification for war. Although I believe that war with Iran would not be justified pragmatically or practically, either (which I have commented on at length in other posts), my point here is just to say that the moral justification does not work. I don't think "in their own minds" counds as a reality that everyone else has to recognize. That is what I meant- not that they don't "feel" that way. I despise moral, metaphysical, and nearly all other forms of relativism, solipsism, and constructionism, and for me, "in their own minds" or "how they feel" doesn't matter one bit.

You ask why not read between the lines. Obviously we can read between the lines, but there is some point at which the little niceties of diplomacy are no longer niceties, but insulting, unbelievable lies. I believe that Bush's "official policies" are an example of such insults to the truth and the intelligence of the world. Everyone knows that empires don't go to war for the sake of democracy.

As for Israel-Palestine- of course Israel is acting in what "it thinks" is in its best interests, but those who think that are wrong. They've made mistakes. I don't care what they think now: my purpose is to convince people that there is a better way.

I know that hardliners in many countries, not just rich ones, think that killing as many people who disagree with them is the best way to solve most disagreements. I believe this is stupid and wrong, and I don't think that it's very honest or attractive to justify it with supposedly moral arguments (think of how much better life will be for the ones we don't kill!).
snow
April 19, 2006
9:19 am
"the moral justification does not work."

So it's ok if they just say that its for selfish reasons? I would be fine with that if leaders did this, but who in the world does this?

"I don't think "in their own minds"Â? counds as a reality that everyone else has to recognize."

This sounds impossible. How could everyone possibly agree on what the proper grounds for any action would be? I highly doubt that Hamas would consider any Israeli military action whatsoever to be justified. To the Israeli military, they may believe they are fully justified.

I would also hope that its not what Bush says but what he does that people are concerned primarily with. Actions speak louder than words. What do his actions say?

"I know that hardliners in many countries, not just rich ones, think that killing as many people who disagree with them is the best way to solve most disagreements. I believe this is stupid and wrong, and I don't think that it's very honest or attractive to justify it with supposedly moral arguments"

Certainly that's true, but it seems pretty much the cover story for any tyrant. At the same time, some leaders actually believe their actions will have some greater 'good' although many may disagree (such as with Bush and Iraq). I don't think Bush's public pronouncements are a mere cynical exercise in lying to the public while his people supposedly rape, pillage and steal. I think he actually believes in it to some degree. He may be wrong, misguided, completely off-base, but I think he believes it to some degree anyway.
Elizabeth
April 19, 2006
10:03 am
Snow- Confessing to murder doesn't make murder right, and admitting you're doing things out of self-interest doesn't change the intrinsic moral value of the act, and I'm not saying that. I'm saying that nations, at least, would do well to admit that to some extent they are acting in their own interests. This whole moralistic justification game played by the west- not only the US, but France, Germany, etc. is ridiculous. Nobody believes it and it's not helping, except to recruit soldiers and voters for a false cause. You don't see China, India or even Japan telling everone that their expansionist business policies are in the interests of world peace. This is why they all find it so repugnant that we would do so.

And anyway, my first comments were rather more to Chirol, whom I would normally hold to a higher standard than your average politician.