Painted into a corner

Some adroit national security analysis from South Korea’s Chosun Ilbo:

Around this time last year, when the island country’s Shimane Prefecture instituted a “Takeshima Day” even as the increasingly prominent right wing in Japan put out textbooks whitewashing the country’s wartime atrocities, the president said, “We can no longer sit idle before fresh attempts at hegemony. They will be struck down one and all.” You can almost hear Japan snicker at the presidential promise as it turns up the provocation over Dokdo again this year.

If a country is to rebuff another’s designs on its territory, it must plumb for one of two options: rely on its own strength or, failing that, enlist the help of an ally capable of the job. That has been a basic principle of international politics for millennia. If you are merely bluffing, the other side will call your bluff.

For Korea to stand up to a country like Japan with an economy 10 times the size of ours is impossible without a powerful ally. The Korea-U.S. alliance that once sustained us and maintained stability when Seoul-Tokyo relations became brittle, has been shaken to the core in the three years the Roh administration has been in power. Tokyo knows that Seoul has maneuvered itself into a diplomatic corner: that is why it is acting so shamelessly in the Dokdo question.

All very true. Japan has called Seoul’s bluff, and can afford to do so because Tokyo’s relations with the US are great, whereas Seoul’s relations with the US are awful.

ALSO: Domestically, Koizumi’s East Asia diplomacy is the least popular aspect of his administration: more than half opposed the Yasukuni Shrine visits, almost four-fifths of the country want improved relations with China, and I’d wager that figure is even higher for Korea.