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Chirol
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Chirol

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March 7th, 2006

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The EU to the Rescue?

The European Union is still debating the details of sending troops to the Congo at the request of the United Nations. The request dates back to January and is expected to be decided upon by the end of this month, though doubt exists as to whether the EU would be able to do so seeing as many countries are reluctant to offer their own soldiers. According to Retuers:

Envoys from the bloc’s 25 countries held talks in Brussels on Tuesday, but officials played down prospects of progress. Britain has said it will not contribute forces because it is over-stretched with commitments in Iraq and elsewhere, while envoys said France was unwilling to lead the EU mission because it is already engaged in peacekeeping in Ivory Coast.

Paris has also pointed out that it coordinated an earlier EU security mission in the Ituri region of Congo in 2003.Germany is the only other EU nation with sufficient planning capacity to lead such an operation, but has also shown unwilling to be put in the lead role.The United Nations would prefer an EU force on the ground in Congo but would accept other choices. An EU fact-finding mission to Kinshasa earlier this year concluded that a standby force on reserve outside the country might cover most needs.

So most of Europe is now pointing fingers trying to come up with a reason why it shouldn’t be the one to lead or send troops. On top of that, the fact-finding mission, diplomatic code for doing nothing, recommended stationing troops in neighboring countries. Perhaps they could also help stabilize Afghanistan or Iraq from there too. The German news, however, has more details. First of all, it notes that Germany is calling to head up the mission and that numerous other countries have signalled their willingness to participate, namely Spain, Portugal, Scweden, France, Austria, Poland and Belgium.

Jung zeigte sich zuversichtlich, dass Solana seine Mission erfolgreich absolvieren werde. “Wir brauchen eine belastbare Zahl der Streitkräfte”, sagte der Bundesverteidigungsminister. Die Bundesregierung stellt vier Bedingungen für eine Teilnahme. Kongo müsse eine klare Anforderung an die EU richten. Die Vereinten Nationen müssten der Truppe ein Mandat geben. Zudem will Berlin, dass der Einsatz auf die Hauptstadt Kinshasa begrenzt bleibt und höchstens vier Monate dauert.

[Chirol’s translation]:
Jung was confident that Solana would successfully organize the mission. “We need a number of troops who are able to work under pressure” the German Defense Minister said. The German government gave four conditions for its participation. The Congo must send the EU a clear request. The UN must give their troops a mandate and additionally that the mission is confined to the capital Kinshasa and that it lasts four months at most.

Both Germany and France have said they could contribute approximately 400 soldiers each with the UN request calling for between 1,000 and 1,500. Yet, with 16,000 peacekeepers already there, how much good would 100 EU troops in the capital and over a thousand in bordering countries do? However, on top of that, how much good will sending troops to the Congo do in general? Though some may argue Belgium itself has some colonial responsibility, the general utility of trying to solve the conflict in the Congo is quite questionable. Despite the tremendous loss of life throughout the many wars there, the likelihood that the Congo has any future at all is very slim. Additionally, a thousand soldiers, most outside, won’t have a big effect on upcoming elections nor is it likely the elections themself will make any difference.

While I’m quite happy to see the EU openly debating missions around the world, I do think this is a time to think carefully about the mission and whether it will ultimately have any benefit without long term enforcement, tens of thousands of more troops and massive aid and development. With no future for much of sub-saharan Africa in sight, Europe needs to start elsewhere, going where the opportunity exists to do some real (i.e. effective) good. Nevertheless there will be great temptation to send a token force, after the miles of paperwork are done to chalk up another mission on the EU blackboard. If Europe merely wants to get their troops on the ground abroad, rack up some experience and move on, then this blogger fully supports them. But, if they expect to make a difference, its better to sit this one out rather than play a losing hand.

Comments to this entry

IJ
March 7, 2006
8:49 pm
It is good to see the EU insisting that their military mission into the Congo sovereign state should be approved by the United Nations. This assures legitimacy. "Today's press":http://za.today.reuters.com/news/NewsArticle.aspx?type=topNews&storyID=2006-03-07T145926Z_01_BAN739240_RTRIDST_0_OZATP-CONGO-DEMOCRATIC-EU-20060307.XML reports that the UN "asked the EU in January to send a rapid reaction force of some 800 soldiers to help beef up security for the elections, pleading that the 17,000-strong U.N. peacekeeping mission there was overstretched." The blog says that Germany and France claim to be able to contribute approximately 400 soldiers each. The Congo elections take place in June.
Kirk H. Sowell
March 8, 2006
4:18 am
I'll start with expanding on Chirol's last point: The Congo situation is dire, but the nature of the situation with vast areas of land controlled by numerous roving gangs of armed thugs - or "youth" in French riot parlance - makes the idea of sending 1,600 troops there seem a bit silly if the purpose is to actually accomplish something. A much better target for European troops, either as peacekeepers or as ordercreators, is Darfur in the Sudan. France has a military presence next door in Chad, although I'm not sure how much, but logistically they would be set up well for it. And with 2 million + homeless and hundreds of thousands dead, one cannot dispute the need. One would have to ditch the idea of getting Khartoum's permission, since they are part of the problem. The U.S. can contribute air strikes.

Comment on IJ's comment: Referring to the Congo as a "sovereign state" may be a bit generous, since one might argue that it is neither, but since the Congo isn't sponsoring anti-European terrorist groups UN permission might be required. I would be careful with setting a precedent there; collective security only functions when all relevant powers have the same interests. Part of the problem here is that no European power - if that term can be used for a European nation - has a vital interest in the Congo.

It would be good to remember that only recently the Dutch almost didn't send troops to Afghanistan because of the dangers of combat; the government favored it, but I think that public opinion was about 2-1 opposed. That is pretty pathetic given who we are talking about here. But it is indicative of something. Modern Europeans just don't have the stomach for fighting, no matter how just the cause.

The last two conditions listed in the text Chirol translated illustrate perfectly how unsuited the Germans are to this - they want the mandate limited to Kinshasa, and to just four months. Take a look at the map if you have forgotten how large the country is, and how peripheral Kinshasa is to it territorally. And I believe that this conflict, which has claimed 3-4 million lives, started back in 1997 or 1998. Four months? You have got to be kidding me.
Kirk H. Sowell
March 8, 2006
4:24 am
Click here for a map of the Congo, and then this is a map of all of Africa to give you an idea of the size of this country. The maps should expand if you click on them. Kinshasa is right on the border in the west. Congo is about the size of France and Germany combined. A 1,000 or so peacekeepers? Yeah right.
Eddie
March 8, 2006
7:58 am
Combined with a joint EU-US campaign of political and diplomatic pressure on AU nations to get tough with Sudan (especially now that it appears Sudan is trying to undermine the government of Chad and make it a proxy of Sudan), If the EU could set up a no-fly zone out of Chad, that would be a key turning point in finally ending this round of the Darfur conflict.

On the other hand, deploying the EU to the Congo would be largely a waste.
IJ
March 8, 2006
10:00 am
More resolve? Egypt and Libya, allies of the government in Sudan, might now be prepared to insist on more protection for Darfur. ("Sudan, Egypt, Libya to hold new Darfur talks":http://sudanwatch.blogspot.com/)
Eddie
March 8, 2006
10:12 am
IJ, Egypt and Libya are covering for Sudan's regime, not seeking to actually protect Darfur. Have you seen the past week where Egypt and Libya have been rejecting the AU turning the mission over to the UN, as well as denouncing any involvement of NATO or the US?
IJ
March 8, 2006
11:31 am
Eddie, events!

Sudan's president now feels the need for a mini-summit with allies Egypt and Libya ahead of the Arab summit in Khartoum later this month. It was only last week that all three met and said they were opposed to more protection for Darfur.
Dusty
March 9, 2006
4:23 pm
How about this take:

Talk mounts for action by the UN or NATO to take over in Darfur. While the chance the US command structure would take the lead is much lower than normal, the presence would still demand the currently aggressive US attitude, partly offensive to stabilize the region but also defensive as it seems they will not be welcome by the Sudanese government. So, an EU commitment to Congo provides them with a pre-emptive backout clause for Darfur.

That the numbers tossed out by the EU for Congo are ridiculusly small and a proposal is offered to go not to Congo but next to Congo, adds to my feeling that the EU is not contemplating the Congo here but Darfur.

I sense old Europe slipping the "Sorry, but we're busy" card up their sleeve if Darfur sounds too challenging.


I can't put my finger on the impetus of the UN's mention at this time, but I haven't followed the stream of discussion on it. (It may be the grounding for the article or just filler.) However, they do have to be mentioned occasionally or it will look like they aren't in control of being concerned about it and will become spiritually irrelevent as well as materially irrelevent.
Chirol
March 9, 2006
7:50 pm
Quite a good theory Dusty. You may very well be right.
IJ
March 9, 2006
10:29 pm
Dusty, here are the "latest figures":http://www.un.org/Depts/dpko/dpko/contributors/2006/jan06_1.pdf for personnel contributed to UN peacekeeping missions.

In January the US had assigned 346 police (Kosovo 251), 18 military observers and 6 troops to UN missions. The total from all countries was 7371 police, 2692 observers and 61748 troops. Top troop contributors were Bangladesh 9576, Pakistan 9019 and India 6849. The US seems to be averse to UN approved missions.
Eddie
March 10, 2006
12:39 am
IJ, that is pure posturing by the three countries most guilty of creating the circumstances for this disaster in the first place (Egypt for doing nothing about it despite its claims to "regional power", Libya for flooding the region with weapons, idealogy and training various groups since the 80's and Sudan for denying its outlying provinces any semblance of fair treatment or adequate share of funds, not to mention unleashing the Janjaweed militias and backing them up early and often with air support and government intelligence and training).

What you're seeing in the Darfur region and Eastern Chad is the potent mix of a perfect storm of suffering, starvation, violence, anarchy and death.

All while the international community will wring its hands and people will turn the channel when the bodies are shown on CNN International and the BBC. Pres. Bush will offer his condolences, Tony Blair will claim Darfur isn't another "Rwanda" therefore he's not obligated to intervene as he promised to do so back in 2001, the Europeans will ignore the nightmare, the Russians will sell more weapons and the Chinese will get more oil.

Meanwhile, every dictator and wanna-be tyrant in Africa is going to see that if you are under the Chinese umbrella, as Sudan (and increasingly Zimbabwe) obviously is, you're literally untouchable and can do anything under the sun without consequence, including engaging in the deliberate destablization of a neighboring country and costing up to a million or more their lives.
IJ
March 10, 2006
8:19 am
Eddie, the problem for the administration in the United States is that it takes an opposite view to the rest of the world (190 nations) on key matters. For example, the ROW thinks the time has arrived for them to protect peoples in sovereign countries - in fact the new Peacekeeping Mission, the Responsibility to Protect and the Millennium goals are all part of the trend.

Does the US administration want to be part of globalisation? The "indications":http://news.ft.com/cms/s/07064c22-afda-11da-b417-0000779e2340.html are no.
Dusty
March 10, 2006
2:50 pm
IJ,

Thanks for the source. The UN is a complex subject. This is just a tidbit of my thinking.

Of course the US is averse to UN approved missions, everyone pretty much is. That said, most countries maintain a contribution for the sake of the UN. A few do it partly for the money -- it can be profitable to the contributing nation. Others, do it partly to enhance training and experience. I would certainly like to see a breakdown of the country contributions vis-a-vis the missions to see their relationship on the self-interest scale.

A reason the US is averse now, is the legal cloud our troops will be put under. But moreso, I think, the reason is that the US works better independently, or better said, in concert with like-minded nations.

To assert that the US is averse to UN approved missions is misleading. It is, _currently_, averse to staffing UN missions in the way evidenced by the table. It still votes on them, usually in the affirmative. It still funds them. It still provides logistics.

But aside from all the above, your assertion is misleading in that it suggests the US is not doing anything if it is not doing it under the auspices of the UN.
Dusty
March 10, 2006
3:07 pm
IJ, regarding your comment immediately preceding this, what is "ROW"?
IJ
March 10, 2006
3:38 pm
Dusty, the United States seems to be retreating from the rest of the world (ROW).

This is a very worrying trend, as is "reported":http://www.nytimes.com/2006/03/10/business/worldbusiness/10chill.html?_r=1&th&emc=th&oref=slogin in the US today - especially in view of the dire national fiscal position.
Dusty
March 14, 2006
11:37 am
IJ, I finally got a chance to read the article. While it is informative as a gathering of facts and events, I think it's the typical superficial and amateurish doom-mongering analysis and pure drivel for the sake of looking insightful. I'd rather read old Jeane Dixon quotes.

Here's the problem with this story because it's a story not an analysis. It took a simple, but large, event (DPW), took that dot on the graph, connected it with the Unocal dot, called that a trend line and labeled it worrisome. Two dots don't make a trend line. The trend line does not go through exceptions. And these are clearly exceptions considering the story does indicate 2005 capital inflows are up over 2004. I can screw up their pretty, oops, worrisome graph by citing Lenovo.

What really irks me is that Eduardo Porter peppered it with references to Gazprom and Mittel. Hello, I thought the title meant the story was about the US, dude! Need I mention he added ones connected with Russia and France?

But enough of that and on to another issue -- your concern via comments in this post that the US is trending Isolationist. I think that is hardly the case, but I do think you have revealed a couple of things less talked about.

One is that the concept of globalization is inherently viewed as a socialist construct. It is not. Globalization is a capitalist construct. The socialists know that and wish to gift wrap it as such now that they cannot stop the gift giving. Remember that capitalism values independence and individualism, not control and collectivism. The US is involved in expanding globalization at an ever faster pace but is doing it in capitalistic way. As such it is often not as easy to broadly see its results.

I always see stories on UN actions, or should I say, UN pronouncements on the recommended approach to implement the best method for pursuing the desired results to realize the common goal which precipitated the search for the recommended approach. I hardly ever see stories on USAid doing them (or, for that matter, weekly stories on all the other independent activities by organizations far and wide.) All encompassing '5-year Plans' are terrible in getting things done but to wonders for the egos of control freaks. Worse, it stifles creativity and experimentation which is particularly important in achieving the ideas behind both the Millennium Project and Kyoto, to name two.

The other is your view on Isolationism. Rather than accepting your concern that the US is trending towards it, I assert, without providing backup here, that the EU, South America, Africa, and a couple large parts of Asia of (take your pick) either having taken this tack for centuries, reverted to it, or having it as an inherently cultural character flaw and are to one extent or another being dragged kicking and screaming from it by the US and the US is now going through a stage (I'm betting it will be a short one) of devising new and even better ways to drag them. Mull that one for a while.
IJ
March 14, 2006
12:12 pm
Interesting thoughts, Dusty. In essence, you think the United Nations is wrong. You're in good company: a former US ambassador said this when he was asked recently about the UN report criticising the Guantanamo Bay detentions.
General Bell Comments on Future of USFK to Congress « ROK Drop
October 25, 2006
11:21 am
[...] Here are some interesting comments that new USFK commander General B.B. Bell made during a recent US Senate hearing concerning the status of USFK: Noting that Seoul is seeking to regain wartime control of its military forces, the U.S. general forecast that if that happened, U.S. forces here would play what he called a “supporting role” in defending South Korea. He said he believed the South Korean military was capable of taking on an independent combat command and said, “In the future, to support the Republic of Korea where our ally is exercising independent combat command, I envision U.S. military contributions to the alliance to be air- and naval-centric.” Washington and Seoul recently reached an agreement on “strategic flexibility” of U.S. forces stationed on the Korean peninsula - envisioning their use elsewhere in the region - and the comments could suggest further cuts in U.S. Army forces here, with Korea’s ground forces carrying the burden of land combat. In other words US ground forces are needed else where and cutting troops in Korea lessens the US footprint on the peninsula while simultaneously freeing up troops for the Global War on Terror. Asked by a senator whether any thought had been given to shifting more responsibility to the international community in defending South Korea, General Bell said that in addition to the bilateral U.S.-Korea security treaty, the United Nations Command here could be a basis for a larger role for other nations. In theory, he said, the UN Command’s purpose was to prepare the 15 nations represented in the command to recommit their troops if necessary. “While I can’t speak for all those nations, certainly in terms of what they might or might not commit, what I can inform you of is that the framework to discuss a potential broader commitment is resonant, and that could certainly be undertaken,” he said. This is something I always find interesting about Korea. You have elements of Korean society and the media eager to condemn the US and USFK and then tout praises for countries like France. Yet when push comes to shove on the Korean peninsula and North Korea provokes a second Korean War does anyone think that countries like France, Germany, Belgium, etc. will lift a finger to defend South Korea? No matter how estranged relations are between the US and South Korea, the US will defend South Korea in some capacity if attacked. Who else can Korea count on to help defend them if attacked? If a second Korean War broke out possibly England and Australia would commit troops and ironically maybe even Korea’s region rival Japan would assist in some capacity. Europe on the hand, can not even be counted on to conduct peacekeeping operations in Africa, why would anyone expect them to help defend Korea? You can read more here and here. Explore posts in the same categories: USFK [...]