Comments on: Mapping the Gap, Part 1: War Risk Insurance http://cominganarchy.com/2006/03/06/mapping-the-gap-part-1-war-risk-insurance/ Speak Victorian, Think Pagan Thu, 20 Nov 2008 09:38:48 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.3.2 By: Riskape » Blog Archive » War Risk http://cominganarchy.com/2006/03/06/mapping-the-gap-part-1-war-risk-insurance/#comment-116455 Riskape » Blog Archive » War Risk Tue, 08 Aug 2006 16:20:12 +0000 http://cominganarchy.com/2006/03/06/mapping-the-gap-part-1-war-risk-insurance/#comment-116455 [...] [...] [...] [...]

]]> By: Riskape » Blog Archive » War Risk Insurance http://cominganarchy.com/2006/03/06/mapping-the-gap-part-1-war-risk-insurance/#comment-116453 Riskape » Blog Archive » War Risk Insurance Tue, 08 Aug 2006 16:10:09 +0000 http://cominganarchy.com/2006/03/06/mapping-the-gap-part-1-war-risk-insurance/#comment-116453 [...] With the Middle East situation in the headlines and while we’re doing maps, here is one of the Tom Barnett’s famous Core/Gap Map overlain with regions that commonly draw a war risk premium from insurance companies (hat tip: (Coming Anarchy). [...] [...] With the Middle East situation in the headlines and while we’re doing maps, here is one of the Tom Barnett’s famous Core/Gap Map overlain with regions that commonly draw a war risk premium from insurance companies (hat tip: (Coming Anarchy). [...]

]]> By: ComingAnarchy.com » Blog Archive » http://cominganarchy.com/2006/03/06/mapping-the-gap-part-1-war-risk-insurance/#comment-85306 ComingAnarchy.com » Blog Archive » Wed, 03 May 2006 21:30:49 +0000 http://cominganarchy.com/2006/03/06/mapping-the-gap-part-1-war-risk-insurance/#comment-85306 [...] [...] [...] [...]

]]> By: ComingAnarchy.com » Blog Archive » Mapping the Gap IV: Canada, Germany, UK http://cominganarchy.com/2006/03/06/mapping-the-gap-part-1-war-risk-insurance/#comment-85051 ComingAnarchy.com » Blog Archive » Mapping the Gap IV: Canada, Germany, UK Tue, 02 May 2006 16:09:44 +0000 http://cominganarchy.com/2006/03/06/mapping-the-gap-part-1-war-risk-insurance/#comment-85051 [...] [Prelude | Part 1 | Part 2 | Part 3] [...] [...] [Prelude | Part 1 | Part 2 | Part 3] [...]

]]> By: The Glittering Eye » Blog Archive » The Council has spoken! http://cominganarchy.com/2006/03/06/mapping-the-gap-part-1-war-risk-insurance/#comment-73122 The Glittering Eye » Blog Archive » The Council has spoken! Fri, 10 Mar 2006 14:03:56 +0000 http://cominganarchy.com/2006/03/06/mapping-the-gap-part-1-war-risk-insurance/#comment-73122 [...] The Watcher’s Council has announced its picks for the most outstanding posts of the preceding week. This week the selection for the winning Council post was Gates of Vienna’s post, "The Bloody Borders Project"Â?. In this post Dymphna inaugurates their "Bloody Borders Project"Â?. It’s a serious endeavor that bears watching. Take a look at the map there that maps the incidence of Islamist terrorism since 9/11. It bears reflection. Compare this map to Thomas Barnett’s Core and Gap. See also the maps at Coming Anarchy of war risk insurance and anti-homosexuality laws. The second place post was my own post on the prospects for world government, "From Way Up Here"Â?. [...] [...] The Watcher’s Council has announced its picks for the most outstanding posts of the preceding week. This week the selection for the winning Council post was Gates of Vienna’s post, “The Bloody Borders Project”Â?. In this post Dymphna inaugurates their “Bloody Borders Project”Â?. It’s a serious endeavor that bears watching. Take a look at the map there that maps the incidence of Islamist terrorism since 9/11. It bears reflection. Compare this map to Thomas Barnett’s Core and Gap. See also the maps at Coming Anarchy of war risk insurance and anti-homosexuality laws. The second place post was my own post on the prospects for world government, “From Way Up Here”Â?. [...]

]]> By: ComingAnarchy.com » Blog Archive » Mapping the Gap, Part 2: Homosexuality Laws http://cominganarchy.com/2006/03/06/mapping-the-gap-part-1-war-risk-insurance/#comment-72745 ComingAnarchy.com » Blog Archive » Mapping the Gap, Part 2: Homosexuality Laws Wed, 08 Mar 2006 10:27:41 +0000 http://cominganarchy.com/2006/03/06/mapping-the-gap-part-1-war-risk-insurance/#comment-72745 [...] Mapping the Gap, PreludeMapping the Gap, Part 1: War Risk InsuranceMapping prejudiceWhy is Sarkozy to blame?The Many Flavors of the Social Welfare State [...] [...] Mapping the Gap, PreludeMapping the Gap, Part 1: War Risk InsuranceMapping prejudiceWhy is Sarkozy to blame?The Many Flavors of the Social Welfare State [...]

]]> By: Tiu Fu Fong http://cominganarchy.com/2006/03/06/mapping-the-gap-part-1-war-risk-insurance/#comment-72677 Tiu Fu Fong Wed, 08 Mar 2006 01:42:33 +0000 http://cominganarchy.com/2006/03/06/mapping-the-gap-part-1-war-risk-insurance/#comment-72677 On the topic of business approach to "we're all f*cked" risk - I work largely in equity capital markets and corporate finance, not insurance, so can't speak for how insurers approach exclusions. However, in ECM deals, when we draft "sh*t hits the fan" termination events for terrorism, war, natural disaster, epidemic (epidemic being a more common post-SARS) etc, choice of nations largely comes down to the two major global financial centres/nexuses (UK & US), main regional financial nexuses/centres reflecting the location of the investor base or other deal-specific risks (eg in Asia - Singapore and HK) and then a list generated from a 30 second brainstorm on countries relevant to the deal (eg where the assets are located, where major businesses and customers are located). Then we'll occasionally toss in North Korea (because they are crazy and potentially could attack anyone in the region) if it's on our minds because Coming Anarchy or some other blog ran a piece on NK recently. To my knowledge, most ECM banks take a similar approach and don't have a centralised list. The ECM approach reflects the much shorter risk period for ECM deals vs insurance contracts (eg in Asia - anywhere between 3 - 15 days depending on settlement periods and local law requirements on pre-funding, vs multiple years for insurance contracts). On corporate finance contracts (eg buying an asset with anywhere between 3-6 months from execution of contracts to date on which assets and cash are exchanged), the approach is much the same as the ECM approach. Additional protection comes from other termination events (eg material adverse effect on the business, failure to meet forecasts). On the topic of business approach to “we’re all f*cked” risk – I work largely in equity capital markets and corporate finance, not insurance, so can’t speak for how insurers approach exclusions. However, in ECM deals, when we draft “sh*t hits the fan” termination events for terrorism, war, natural disaster, epidemic (epidemic being a more common post-SARS) etc, choice of nations largely comes down to the two major global financial centres/nexuses (UK & US), main regional financial nexuses/centres reflecting the location of the investor base or other deal-specific risks (eg in Asia – Singapore and HK) and then a list generated from a 30 second brainstorm on countries relevant to the deal (eg where the assets are located, where major businesses and customers are located). Then we’ll occasionally toss in North Korea (because they are crazy and potentially could attack anyone in the region) if it’s on our minds because Coming Anarchy or some other blog ran a piece on NK recently. To my knowledge, most ECM banks take a similar approach and don’t have a centralised list.

The ECM approach reflects the much shorter risk period for ECM deals vs insurance contracts (eg in Asia – anywhere between 3 – 15 days depending on settlement periods and local law requirements on pre-funding, vs multiple years for insurance contracts). On corporate finance contracts (eg buying an asset with anywhere between 3-6 months from execution of contracts to date on which assets and cash are exchanged), the approach is much the same as the ECM approach.

Additional protection comes from other termination events (eg material adverse effect on the business, failure to meet forecasts).

]]> By: Joe http://cominganarchy.com/2006/03/06/mapping-the-gap-part-1-war-risk-insurance/#comment-72655 Joe Tue, 07 Mar 2006 17:40:37 +0000 http://cominganarchy.com/2006/03/06/mapping-the-gap-part-1-war-risk-insurance/#comment-72655 This is an interesting topic, but mapping the common exceptions seems like a backwards way to find the sinkholes of the Gap. After all, what's happening here is that someone in Insurance Company X makes a list of countries that are either in a state of war or extremely likely to enter a state of war in the near future, this list finds its way into a war risk insurance contract, and your honourable lordship plots the list on a map. Why not just map the conflict zones directly? i.e., "if people are reportedly being massacred on a regular basis, color it red." This seems to be based on more-or-less conventional wisdom anyway. I'm guessing the recent Colombia-Bolivia switch is because the US is refocusing its counterdrug efforts. Seriously, when will they stop wasting their time farting around in the Andes? This is an interesting topic, but mapping the common exceptions seems like a backwards way to find the sinkholes of the Gap. After all, what’s happening here is that someone in Insurance Company X makes a list of countries that are either in a state of war or extremely likely to enter a state of war in the near future, this list finds its way into a war risk insurance contract, and your honourable lordship plots the list on a map.

Why not just map the conflict zones directly? i.e., “if people are reportedly being massacred on a regular basis, color it red.” This seems to be based on more-or-less conventional wisdom anyway.

I’m guessing the recent Colombia-Bolivia switch is because the US is refocusing its counterdrug efforts. Seriously, when will they stop wasting their time farting around in the Andes?

]]> By: IJ http://cominganarchy.com/2006/03/06/mapping-the-gap-part-1-war-risk-insurance/#comment-72649 IJ Tue, 07 Mar 2006 15:53:20 +0000 http://cominganarchy.com/2006/03/06/mapping-the-gap-part-1-war-risk-insurance/#comment-72649 _*until the UN agrees enforceable norms for the behaviour of sovereign governments*_ How long should we wait? Today's news (courtesy of "Sudanwatch":http://sudanwatch.blogspot.com/) is that UN members are even refusing NATO a mandate to intervene in "Sudan's strife-torn Darfur province". *until the UN agrees enforceable norms for the behaviour of sovereign governments*

How long should we wait? Today’s news (courtesy of Sudanwatch) is that UN members are even refusing NATO a mandate to intervene in “Sudan’s strife-torn Darfur province”.

]]> By: IJ http://cominganarchy.com/2006/03/06/mapping-the-gap-part-1-war-risk-insurance/#comment-72602 IJ Tue, 07 Mar 2006 10:04:52 +0000 http://cominganarchy.com/2006/03/06/mapping-the-gap-part-1-war-risk-insurance/#comment-72602 National politics will surely remain a major risk (insurable?) to the global market until the UN agrees enforceable norms for the behaviour of sovereign governments. The trend at present is in the direction of more central control, with the new UN Peacekeeping Commission and a commitment to protect nationals (R2P) - Darfur will be a test of the UN members' resolve. National politics will surely remain a major risk (insurable?) to the global market until the UN agrees enforceable norms for the behaviour of sovereign governments. The trend at present is in the direction of more central control, with the new UN Peacekeeping Commission and a commitment to protect nationals (R2P) – Darfur will be a test of the UN members’ resolve.

]]> By: Curzon http://cominganarchy.com/2006/03/06/mapping-the-gap-part-1-war-risk-insurance/#comment-72592 Curzon Tue, 07 Mar 2006 09:01:31 +0000 http://cominganarchy.com/2006/03/06/mapping-the-gap-part-1-war-risk-insurance/#comment-72592 TFF: I've seen some policies only list "hostile" nuclear bombings, which makes you think the policy will cover accidental or test atomic explosions... Some War Risk policies also include a cancellation clause called "Five Powers War Exclusion": <blockquote>Upon the outbreak of war (whether there be a declaration of war or not) between any of the following: United States of America, United Kingdom, France, the Russian Federation, the People's Republic of China, this insurance will terminate immediately.</blockquote> I think that's otherwise known as the, "We're all fu**ed!" clause. TFF: I’ve seen some policies only list “hostile” nuclear bombings, which makes you think the policy will cover accidental or test atomic explosions…

Some War Risk policies also include a cancellation clause called “Five Powers War Exclusion”:

Upon the outbreak of war (whether there be a declaration of war or not) between any of the following: United States of America, United Kingdom, France, the Russian Federation, the People’s Republic of China, this insurance will terminate immediately.

I think that’s otherwise known as the, “We’re all fu**ed!” clause.

]]> By: Elizabeth http://cominganarchy.com/2006/03/06/mapping-the-gap-part-1-war-risk-insurance/#comment-72585 Elizabeth Tue, 07 Mar 2006 07:12:36 +0000 http://cominganarchy.com/2006/03/06/mapping-the-gap-part-1-war-risk-insurance/#comment-72585 Great map! I find it comforting that Iran has not been added to the red area yet- does this mean there may be a peaceful solution? Great map! I find it comforting that Iran has not been added to the red area yet- does this mean there may be a peaceful solution?

]]> By: Tiu Fu Fong http://cominganarchy.com/2006/03/06/mapping-the-gap-part-1-war-risk-insurance/#comment-72583 Tiu Fu Fong Tue, 07 Mar 2006 06:26:02 +0000 http://cominganarchy.com/2006/03/06/mapping-the-gap-part-1-war-risk-insurance/#comment-72583 I've seen nuclear attack risk covered on insurance policies for investments in South Korea. Drives the premium up as some actuary tallies up the risk/reward calculus. I’ve seen nuclear attack risk covered on insurance policies for investments in South Korea. Drives the premium up as some actuary tallies up the risk/reward calculus.

]]> By: Curzon http://cominganarchy.com/2006/03/06/mapping-the-gap-part-1-war-risk-insurance/#comment-72581 Curzon Tue, 07 Mar 2006 06:11:03 +0000 http://cominganarchy.com/2006/03/06/mapping-the-gap-part-1-war-risk-insurance/#comment-72581 I use Macromedia Fireworks to make my graphics -- but this one is nothing real special. I take most maps from NASA World Wind; in this case, I snatched the file from a search on "images.google.com.":http://images.google.com Please note that the resident genius in this deparment is our grandmaster web designer, Sir Francis Younghusband. I use Macromedia Fireworks to make my graphics—but this one is nothing real special. I take most maps from NASA World Wind; in this case, I snatched the file from a search on images.google.com.

Please note that the resident genius in this deparment is our grandmaster web designer, Sir Francis Younghusband.

]]> By: StrategyUnit http://cominganarchy.com/2006/03/06/mapping-the-gap-part-1-war-risk-insurance/#comment-72580 StrategyUnit Tue, 07 Mar 2006 06:03:01 +0000 http://cominganarchy.com/2006/03/06/mapping-the-gap-part-1-war-risk-insurance/#comment-72580 Curzon, honestly guys, how do you get and make all these great maps? Curzon, honestly guys, how do you get and make all these great maps?

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