Comments on: Hamas and the Palestinian Elections http://cominganarchy.com/2006/02/19/hamas-and-the-palestinian-elections/ Speak Victorian, Think Pagan Thu, 18 Mar 2010 11:11:06 -0700 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 By: StrategyUnit: Global Security Issues » Quick Links: Hamas Votes, Psiphon and State Power, Japan in Central Asia, John Woo on FISA, and Beer http://cominganarchy.com/2006/02/19/hamas-and-the-palestinian-elections/comment-page-1/#comment-71115 StrategyUnit: Global Security Issues » Quick Links: Hamas Votes, Psiphon and State Power, Japan in Central Asia, John Woo on FISA, and Beer Tue, 21 Feb 2006 05:57:33 +0000 http://www.cominganarchy.com/?p=1653#comment-71115 [...] Via Chief Wiggum and Coming Anarchy, comes this interesting story: A close look at the final results of last month’s Palestinian election shows that the apparent landslide that gave Hamas 74 of the 132 seats in the Palestinian Legislative Council and only 45 to the once-dominant Fatah movement was, in the words of one analyst, “an optical illusion.” [...] [...] Via Chief Wiggum and Coming Anarchy, comes this interesting story: A close look at the final results of last month’s Palestinian election shows that the apparent landslide that gave Hamas 74 of the 132 seats in the Palestinian Legislative Council and only 45 to the once-dominant Fatah movement was, in the words of one analyst, “an optical illusion.” [...]

]]> By: Kirk H. Sowell http://cominganarchy.com/2006/02/19/hamas-and-the-palestinian-elections/comment-page-1/#comment-71033 Kirk H. Sowell Mon, 20 Feb 2006 08:37:19 +0000 http://www.cominganarchy.com/?p=1653#comment-71033 That second link didn't work right, let me try that again: <a href="http://www.fairvote.org/media/pep/Palestine.pdf" rel="nofollow">FairVote.org</a> That second link didn’t work right, let me try that again:
FairVote.org

]]> By: Kirk H. Sowell http://cominganarchy.com/2006/02/19/hamas-and-the-palestinian-elections/comment-page-1/#comment-71032 Kirk H. Sowell Mon, 20 Feb 2006 08:35:03 +0000 http://www.cominganarchy.com/?p=1653#comment-71032 The basic point about the skewing of the vote I agree with, but the quote that "a clear majority of Palestinians voted against the Hamas" takes the point too far. True, Hamas disproportionately dominated the district seats based on the vote totals, but they had a plurality of the vote on both the national and the district lists. Specifically, they beat Fatah 45-42% in the national, proportional vote, and 41-36% in the districts. Three factors make it likely that the pro-terrorist vote was more than 50%; (1) the terrorist PFLP got three seats while the non-terrorist Third Way Party only got two, and (2) there were a few "independents," and those are usually Hamas members running independent for "security reasons"; and (3) one of Fatah's lists was headed by Marwan Barghouti, a convicted terrorist. It wasn't a Hamas landslide, but they either had an absolute majority of the vote (counting sympathetic independents), or they were pretty close. I have an in-depth look at the elections at my post, <a href="http://www.arabworldanalysis.com/blog/archives/2006/01/the_triumph_of_1.html" rel="nofollow">The Triumph of Hamas and the Future of Palestine.</a> Although my blog is an absolutely infallible guide to all things Middle Eastern, some may want to reference somewhat better known sources, so check these out (the second source is an careful study of the vote): <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000100&sid=axNKToJqE7cg&refer=germany" rel="nofollow">Bloomberg</a> <a href="http://www.fairvote.org/media/pep/Palestine.pdf" rel="nofollow">Fair Vote.org study of Palestinian elections</a> According to this vote study, it also looks like there were only two districts in which Fatah lost a seat because it split the vote, so that doesn't seem to have been a crucial factor. The basic point about the skewing of the vote I agree with, but the quote that “a clear majority of Palestinians voted against the Hamas” takes the point too far. True, Hamas disproportionately dominated the district seats based on the vote totals, but they had a plurality of the vote on both the national and the district lists. Specifically, they beat Fatah 45-42% in the national, proportional vote, and 41-36% in the districts. Three factors make it likely that the pro-terrorist vote was more than 50%; (1) the terrorist PFLP got three seats while the non-terrorist Third Way Party only got two, and (2) there were a few “independents,” and those are usually Hamas members running independent for “security reasons”; and (3) one of Fatah’s lists was headed by Marwan Barghouti, a convicted terrorist. It wasn’t a Hamas landslide, but they either had an absolute majority of the vote (counting sympathetic independents), or they were pretty close.

I have an in-depth look at the elections at my post, The Triumph of Hamas and the Future of Palestine. Although my blog is an absolutely infallible guide to all things Middle Eastern, some may want to reference somewhat better known sources, so check these out (the second source is an careful study of the vote):

Bloomberg
Fair Vote.org study of Palestinian elections

According to this vote study, it also looks like there were only two districts in which Fatah lost a seat because it split the vote, so that doesn’t seem to have been a crucial factor.

]]> By: StrategyUnit http://cominganarchy.com/2006/02/19/hamas-and-the-palestinian-elections/comment-page-1/#comment-71030 StrategyUnit Mon, 20 Feb 2006 08:05:15 +0000 http://www.cominganarchy.com/?p=1653#comment-71030 Chief Wiggum and Chriol - excellent pointer! Thanks! Chief Wiggum and Chriol – excellent pointer!

Thanks!

]]> By: mkl http://cominganarchy.com/2006/02/19/hamas-and-the-palestinian-elections/comment-page-1/#comment-71018 mkl Mon, 20 Feb 2006 06:41:20 +0000 http://www.cominganarchy.com/?p=1653#comment-71018 To me it looks rather a case where a party was able to win an election due to its high disclipline, even though, it lost the majority vote. I think the majority vote went around 55-45 to Fatah, while the seats went 55-45 to Hamas... (numbers from Thomas Friedman op-ed from NYTimes) Happened in 2000 presidential elections in the US too.. To me it looks rather a case where a party was able to win an election due to its high disclipline, even though, it lost the majority vote. I think the majority vote went around 55-45 to Fatah, while the seats went 55-45 to Hamas… (numbers from Thomas Friedman op-ed from NYTimes) Happened in 2000 presidential elections in the US too..

]]> By: nykrindc http://cominganarchy.com/2006/02/19/hamas-and-the-palestinian-elections/comment-page-1/#comment-70993 nykrindc Mon, 20 Feb 2006 00:12:25 +0000 http://www.cominganarchy.com/?p=1653#comment-70993 What the article says basically then is that Hamas didn't win, it was just that Fatah (being so divided) lost. :) What the article says basically then is that Hamas didn’t win, it was just that Fatah (being so divided) lost. :)

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