Russia to the Rescue

On Jan 31st, Moscow came out with a startling new policy, that of solving so-called “frozen conflicts”

Russia: Is Putin Looking To Impose Solutions To Frozen Conflicts?

Russian President Vladimir Putin said during his 31 January Kremlin press conference that there is a need for “universal principles” to settle “frozen” conflicts. His comments come against the background of impending talks on the future status of Kosovo, which many predict will grant it a form of “conditional independence” from Serbia and Montenegro. As an ally of Serbia, Moscow has consistently opposed the idea of Kosovar independence. Putin’s remarks suggest he may be shifting his position, but only if the principles applied to Kosovo are also applied to frozen conflicts in the former Soviet Union. If Kosovo can be granted full independence, he asked, why should we deny the same to Abkhazia and South Ossetia?

The conflicts in question are Kosovo, Nagorno-Karbagh, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Yet, there are two major questions here. Why is Russia coming out for this now and what about all those other conflicts conveniently forgotten like Chechnya?

Why Now?

With an upcoming deal on Kosovo’s final status almost certain to displease Russia, the Kremlin is trying to preemt the issue before the final decision is made. In doing so, Moscow is threatening to recognize other breakaway regions such as Abkhazia and South Ossetia by applying the same “universal principles” from Kosovo elsewhere. Russia lost Kosovo and knows it, however by pushing other more forgotten conflicts up to the forefront through its threats, it hopes to gain a stronger role in settling those in a way favorable to Moscow (i.e. sticking it to Georgia). Additionally, it may be the only move left to calm their allies, the Serbs, who surely feel like Russia has failed them over Kosovo.

“If someone believes that Kosovo should be granted full independence as a state, then why should we deny it to the Abkhaz and the South Ossetians? I am not talking about how Russia will act,” Putin said. “However, we know that Turkey, for instance, has recognized the Republic of Northern Cyprus. I don’t want to say that Russia will immediately recognize Abkhazia or South Ossetia as independent, sovereign states, but such precedents do exist in international practice.”

Thinly veiled threats eh Vlad? However, Putin seems to forget crucial differences between the situation in Kosovo and elsewhere, not to mention how this could oh so easily backfire.

What about the other Conflicts?

The two universal principles Putin mentions are self-determination and territorial integrity. As RFERL notes,

[...] the key thing is that there is no one outside power that is backing Kosovo,” Lucas said. “Kosovo is not the client of a powerful neighboring state the way that Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Transdniester are. So I think the first thing we would have to say if one were trying to find a common standard would be that no neighboring country should exercise a big unilateral blockade or support for one of these frozen conflicts and that, of course, would put Russia in a very difficult position.”

Of course, other conflicts such as Chechnya immediately come to mind not to mention regions which would rather be independent of Moscow such as Karelia or Tatarstan. Are the Russians really totally unaware of the implications of this latest move and that the odds of it backfiring are much greater than those of it not?

Summary

1) Russia’s move is an attempt to save some face, aid its ally Serbia as well as it can, and put pressure on the Kosovo talks.

2) Russia wants to get the ball rolling on conflicts in its near abroad in the hopes of regaining influence.

3) Russia wants to paint itself as an arbiter and problem solver in contrast to its usual reputation of meddling.

However, even if this does backfire and the Kremlin starts to get questions on Chechnya or other areas, Putin will surely deflect them with his usual tact and find numerous reasons why these areas aren’t deserving of or ready for independence. Even so, it’s unlikely any one country or countries would put any real heat on Russia to do something about Chechnya. The Israelis have successfully escaped pressure to settle since 1948, the Russians can easily do so as well. Not to mention, should anyone get too uppity, there’s always that natural gas line that may magically run empty. And last but not least, except for Transdniester, these conflicts are too far from Europe and the US to warrant the attention necessary for a real solution.